I would not post this if the "victim" was harmed, but one thing about the lack of rule of law in China is people can sort out problems on their own. As you read this article, do not think you have not been tempted to act similarly...
Saturday, May 23, 2009
Pricing Statistics
I came across an online debate about price transparency, which I thin is instructive... so I reproduce...
Quote:
Originally posted by M&B:
My local competitor (Yamaha) talks to me in regular basis. Today we were talking about this particular thread.
We believe that as much as this Forum had helped the piano industry, also damages the piano business.
Helping consumers find a reasonable price, it is absolutely fair. On the other hand is damaging to the industry when prices are recklessly quoted on line.
I have my suspicion on how legit the price is, but the way I look at it, the faster the whole industry move towards transparent pricing, the better. The Internet will push you there anyway, doesn't really matter whether it's this website or other websites that do the pushing.
A "suspiciously low" price can wreak havoc only if there's no other credible data point to show that the "suspiciously low" price is an anomaly. If every one shows his real prices, then people can better tell whether a "low" price is "suspiciously low" or not.
Take a row of numbers:
6, 7, 6, 7, 5, 7, 7, 2, 6, 6, 7, 5, 6, 7
Immediately you see that "2" is "suspiciously low," and you would proceed with caution when some one quote you this number when you can see the other numbers are in the 5~7 range.
But if the row of numbers look like:
x, x, x, x, 5, x, x, 2, x, x, x, x, x, 7
and you have no idea what those x's are, then when you're quoted the number "2", you don't know whether "2" is "suspeciously low" or "7" is "cut-throat high." You just don't know where the norm is. That's where the number "2" can do some damage and make the "7" look worse than it really is.
So my response to any worry about "reckless" online price quoting is simple -- counter it with abundant quotings of REAL prices, and let the truth set you free.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Dubai
I am not sure why the state of Dubai, a place I've never been, has been getting bad press. Here is an article that attacks the countries "slave-like conditions" for foreign workers. Why do we criticize other countries for doing exactly what we did to get where we are?
The article says management seizes workers' passports. Well, hotels seize mine when I visit a country. Can you imagine the trouble an employer would have if they lost track of a guest worker? I'd love to interview workers, ifd they spoke english, and ask if any wanted to go home right now?
The problem is not so much Dubai, but economic conditions in the countries of origin of these people. They compare and choose. I wonder what impact US policy has on these peoples' lives and choices.
It seems to me, if we object, we should suggest changes couched in terms of "please do better than we ever did, as you do wonderful things..." that seems to hit the right note...
Newspapers Will Live On
Although the model of government-owned press has failed, in spite of Newspapers now being bailed out, I expect Newspapers to make a comeback in the next decade or so. As Glenn Greenwald demonstrates, the government newspapers now simply steal their best ideas from bloggers, since transferring press-release faxes from city hall to the newspaper and slapping a by-line on it is too much work in this day and age.
Our government tolerates news and blogs because whereas before with a newspaper no one knew what you read or what you thought, today the powers that be can teack what you read, and then gauge what you think by the email you send or the blog posting you make following the reading of the story.
With this "total information awareness" main stream media message can be massaged to keep us all in line.
Newspapers will revive when the debts are cleared and the people writing good blogs are collected as reporters for the newspapers. I stopped reading newspapers about 20 years ago when they stopped reporting news. This can change.
Shooting Self in Foot, Or Worse
We are told we cannot prosecute the criminals who ordered torture because the bad guys will learn our techniques.
The US Army has a video game that shows players how the US Army operates, and boasts 8 million users world wide. Now every terrorist in the world knows how, or can learn, to outfight our soldiers.
Add the video games to the list of government controlled media...
Ahem.. That Would be Mr Wu...
Since the topic is the difficulty in starting a business, I am going to share this email with the list... it is a follow up on an earlier post, in which I referred to Mr. Wu as Miss Wu. I think "miss" whenever I see the surname Wu, due to an encounter with a political commissar in Communist China back in the 1970's... anyway...
On May 21, 2009, at 8:10 AM, wu wrote:
Hihi dear john,My biggest question is I can't find a good question to solve.when i see the product in the market,I find every time I have a idea ,some one else has solved it,and The product is in the market,In this era,
human need< market product,before industry revolution
human need> market product,every time I check ebay or some
online shopping web,I can find many items useless,no one interesting,
***Yes, so it is very, very important to check before you put time and money into a problem that is already been solved... so you make no waste of time and money...***
The biggest problem is, it is not easy to find a good question to handle....
do you have any good question can let me think???
***Yes, If you win lottery, and have 100 million dollars, what would you do?
Maybe that is what you should work on...
Or, what do you wish you had time to do? that may be a good start...
Still, the best, is when you are doing something you enjoy, and you find yourself say "why don't the just (solve the problem)...?" this is a good place to start...
You say so far you try to find item, somebody already has it... but this skill takes practice. Like learning baseball... hard to learn to hit the ball at first... then you learn. But even the best only hit the ball 3 times out of ten... most of us hit one time out of ten, and not very far... but it is enough to enjoy life... does this make sense?
John
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
ATMs Dispensing Gold
Although this article is fun, the comment section is funner... it is a good example of how the only opinion that matters is the customer... would this work in USA?
Miss Wu Checks in From Taiwan
On May 20, 2009, at 1:25 AM, wu wrote:
as tittle,i have read your book "how small business trade worldwide",I am living in Taiwan,i want start my trade career,but still not know how to start, i check my contury's
export,our major export to USA is electrical device,but this kind product usually trade by big company,and i check the number one import from USA in Taiwan is wheat....this is the same not commdity for small business,in your opinion,what kind business in taiwan is posible for a beggining small business,i need your experience,I know you have trade experience in Taiwan...Thank you.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
付費才容量無上限？Yahoo!奇摩電子信箱2.0免費給你，信件永遠不必刪！ http://tw.mg0.mail.yahoo.com/dc/landing
Dear Ms. Wu,
Thank you for your kind note. The way to start your career is to decide what it is that you care about very much. Every field is wide open.
Taiwan has big electronics exports for many reasons. But taiwan exports many other things as well, as you can see from this list
http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/product/enduse/imports/c5830.html
The way to get started is to find a problem YOU experience. then come up with a solution. Start locally, in Taiwan. Sell to Taiwanese businesses. Once you have customers and suppliers, even if you are very small, you can work with suppliers who have some USA customers they do not wish to service. then you can export.
But the beginning should be somthing you care very much about. In English we have the word "passion" which is from Greek and it means to suffer. To be passionate is to suffer. When you work on something you are apssionate about, the proof it is good for you is that working on teh problem gives you joy. Look for those two things first. If you find them, the rest of the work becomes so much easier.
Let me know what you think.
John
I Take An Unpopular Position
The only vaguely pro-peace entity on earth is the Catholic Church. At the time of the invasion of Iraq, the "priest-sex abuse" scandal erupted. Since 'sex-abuse" claims are today's witch hunt charge, I was suspicious of the timing, especially since the charges were nothing new, and the Catholic institutions were less offenders than so many others.
While I was attending a poor school where supposedly this stuff is rampant, Bill Gates was up the road at a world class private school that had a Superior Court judge as a part time teacher, and apparently full time child molester. For 25 years. And many in law enforcement knew it. And after he was outed he committed suicide, and yet still 600 leading Seattleites attended his funeral. Why no lawsuits there?
I transferred out of the Christian Brothers school because I flunked Latin and did not want to spend the summer with a particular teacher. No way. So I went to a public school where the violence was appalling and the counselor i was suppose to meet with did not show up (he was a VP, a union chief, and was eventually arrested soliciting boys in public toilets). Why no lawsuits there?
For some reason the stories are emerging again. Does this mean we are headed for war? Having spent over 16 years being educated in Catholic schools, I know the charges to be largely false, or so willfully mischaracterized that they constitute false testimony.
Yes, some abuse happened, but no where near what is reported. This is from the BBC regarding the Christian Brothers of Ireland, a group that taught me for 2 years. I agree with these government findings:
Abuse report - At a glance
The Commission to Inquire into Child Abuse was established in 2000 to investigate allegations of abuse at Catholic-run children's institutions in Ireland. The main findings were:
* Physical and emotional abuse and neglect were features of the institutions.
(Features? Well, yes... they were schools... this is a feature of all schools)
* Sexual abuse occurred in many of them, particularly boys' institutions.
(Indeed... like any other school...)
* Schools were run in a severe, regimented manner that imposed unreasonable and oppressive discipline on children and even on staff.
(Indeed... because we were the rejects from the other schools... the school I attended had a contract with Seattle Public Schools to take students Seattle could not handle...)
* Children were frequently hungry and food was inadequate, inedible and badly prepared in many schools.
(Yes, we were poor... that sucks... still true in poor district schools today)
* Many witnesses spoke of being constantly fearful or terrified, which impeded their emotional development and impacted on every aspect of their life in the institution.
(Yes, I was fearful and yet we still locked the teachers out of the rooms, farted loudly in class and did anything else we could to annoy the teachers... I think we impacted some of the young teachers emotional development...)
* Prolonged, excessive beatings with implements intended to cause maximum pain occurred with the knowledge of senior staff.
(Yes, in the hallways so the whacks would echo throughout the school building and all would hear... I earned five for tormenting a kindly Latin Teacher.)
* There was constant criticism and verbal abuse and children were told they were worthless.
(Well, what are the facts? We disrupted class, didn't do our homework and fought in the lunchroom. You think it is better to put all the kids on Ritalin?)
* Some children lost their sense of identity and kinship, which was never recovered.
(Schools cannot do that, only families... this charge doesn't stick...)
* Absconders were severely beaten, at times publicly. Some had their heads shaved and were humiliated.
(Yes, I took my worst beatings at school.. and at least ten times teachers lectured class while cutting my hair... you think I am making this up, but I have at least 30 witnesses, and I was not alone.)
* Inspectors, on their occasional visits, rarely spoke to the children in the institutions. (Inspectors? There were inspectors?!)
We knew the pederast teachers and although man/boy relationships are wrong, the boys are rarely, if ever, unwilling participants. The situation is more complex than just black and white.
In any case, this is a problem that cannot be solved. It is wrong for a family to send kids of for the day to be taught by strangers. The solution is a combination of homeschooling and tutors or other short term instructors. Predators and others will have to find other sources of victims.
There is already big business in supporting homeschooling, and most major universities have recruiters for homeschoolers since as a group they perform far better academically than their disadvantaged government school peers. If good comes oout of this, it might be that mnore people homeschool.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Two Cool Products
AS I've mentioned I've seen plenty of people starting new businesses while I was in Hong Kong, and I did see a couple of things I thought were pretty interesting.
One was a wide-angle and telephot attachable lens for cellphones cameras... Now that is something that would never occur to me, but you can check it out at
http://www.lisenoptical.com/cp/class/?8.html
This should take you straight to the cell phones zoom and the search for BM-W, their model number for the wide angle lens...
next there was a hand puppet company... no big deal, but anyone in the toy business would probably appreciate this companies eagerness to do special designs.... I would test this as a post-boom emerging toy category...
http://www.yickwah.com.hk/
First, I Visit My Tailor
I waqs reading in Forbes Life an article interviewing Hosain Rahman, CEO of Aliph, out of San Francisco. He says the first thing he does after landing in Hong Kong is go see his tailor. I laughed because so do I, although I generally kept that quiet thinking it seems a little self-indulgent. Upon reflection, about the only clothes I ever buy are tailored in Hong Kong, because of the exceptional value, so it is a necessity. And then there are the other reasons:
A. A tailor knows what is going on and can update you on current events in Hong Kong.
B. When you lay out the purpose of your visit to your tailor, they are so well connected they usually have plenty of tips and maybe even some contacts.
C. Like a barber you end up meeting others randomly which often results in good connections.
D. No matter how familiar one gets with Hong Kong, it is just plain good to see an old friend at the start of the trip.
I suppose as I get older I'll eventually have a doctor in Thailand, a banker in Japan and a lawyer in India I will meet once a year, inevitable as govt policies distort our economy.
As an aside, this Mr. Rahman answers he knew he had made it in business when he saw his product (the Jawbone, a Bluetooth product) for sale in an open air market. Just so... note he was delighted, not alarmed. He has his customers, the open air vendors have theirs. No problem.
It Is A Fraud
Scientist found the missing link. Just in time for the 200 year anniversary of Darwin's "discovery." How do I know this is fraud? Look at the pattern: An amateur discovered it. It is the proof people needed. There is a media launch which presents it a fait accompli. It cannot be studied too closely.
One thing to keep in mind, when dealing with scientists, there is no group of people who are more gullible than scientists. For all of their insistence on "scientific method" they regularly fall for the most nonsensical evidence.
And Darwin-believers seem to be the most gullible of all, with at least four previously famous frauds:
1. The Piltdown man
2. The Java man
3. The Peking man (it hasn't been proven a fraud because it disappeared)
4. The Ernst Haeckel drawings of embryonics as proof of evolution (you probably saw these as "science" in your high school textbook, even though they were proven fakes 100 years earlier.)
These frauds (and there are actually many more) were all bird-dogged by amateurs or otherwise the uninitiated. This makes it seem lucky or sincere. It is the proof they were waiting for, specifically answers a theory doubters posed. Paleontologists are as a group doubtful on Darwinism, so in this case it answers their doubts. Science is about validity and reliability, but this "discovery" was studied secretly and features breathless celebrities attesting to it; not exactly the scientific method. This will be shown to the public for one day and then back to Norway. A public showing for once day will hardly allow other scientists to study it, and it is set in resin which rather militates against close scrutiny.
My father was an English prof and once lamented bad literature kept getting taught because it was still literature. He envied the science departments because once something was proven false, they dumped it from the curriculum.
Is Darwinism the exception? One thing you learn to do in business is look for patterns. Forget about the content or covering, and look at the pattern. Magic shows can be categorized into about three tricks, and every trick is a variation on one of the themes. Once you know the tricks, you know where to look to catch the trick being played. After that magic shows are dull. Financial scams can be reduced to probably three patterns, the ponzi scheme, cheating at cards and the pigeon drop. Once you spot the set-up, you can avoid the rip-off.
There is a fellow doing great business testing government statistics (and generally finding them wrong.) There is probably a good business testing scientific claims. It would likely be a import service, since science costs less to manage overseas than in USA.
Costs
In his book FROM BAUHAUS TO OUR HOUSE Tom Wolfe made an observation that beautiful architecture is not too expensive, it is merely more expensive. It is matter of choices in allocation that decides what our architecture looks like, not economics.
Bankers spend a lot of money to do banking. Doctors spend lot of money to do medicine. Insurance companies spend a lot of money to do insurance, and so on. This does not mean it costs as much as they spend to provide their services, it just means that what they spend, say X, is what it is. Rarely does it costs as much as they spend to achieve their goals. But given what they spend, they of course are obliged to charge to cover the costs of what they spend.
IN a country where the industrial policy is "get big or get out" the subsidies and barriers to entry erected to benefit big business give those businesses the opportunity to spend more than it costs, because there is no real competition to encourage efficiency.
IN all work the payoff is not the paycheck or the profits, but the work. People who collect paychecks are usually unhappy with their work, and thus their lives.
In self-employment, at once the work is satisfying, but the paycheck or profit may be risible, especially at the start. But wait, all allocations are directed to the work, which makes you happy. Profits are not the motivation in business, any more than one forms a company so he can have a photocopy machine.
So what is the role of this stuff we call profits? Drucker called profits "just another business expense." Profits do appear to be a residual, that is "what is leftover after all expenses are paid." And certainly, try as they might, businesspeople do wish to have as wide profits as possible, although knowing full well the more they charge now the earlier they invite competition and the less the duration of the revenue stream for the product.
To a business person, what do profits represent? The opportunity to invest in more and better of what one is doing right now. "Our customers want their computers to cause them to create content" The fastest best source of finance to achieve this goal is profits. the work is the payoff, the profits are no more significant in lie than the computer or the truck. Profits are a means to an end, and of course every bit as abusable as any other means.
In natural law one cannot gain exceptional wealth, because you will only own what you work. On the other hand the arts and sciences would be far more advanced, as they always are in a free market, and charities direct and effective. But the majority always votes down freedom.
Concern for profits at once misunderstands its role, misdirects efforts and malinvests resources. If you wish to be successful, you cannot worry about profits.
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