Saturday, August 6, 2011
Inflation and Deflation
Posted in economics, money by John Wiley Spiers | 0 comments
Thursday, August 4, 2011
All Hail Iceland's Default
Freedom, peace and prosperity are not possible in a large country or an empire. This is why USA was started as a federation, a republic of 13 small countries. We still call these states, but we now say THE United State instead of THESE United States, as we said for the first 100 years or so.
Iceland is one such country, and it is defaulting, and enjoying quick turn-around. Defaulting would be wonderful for about 348 million of the 350 million USA citizens. But it won't happen, because a democracy is easily captured by the few.
The Iceland story is a neat, clear version of what happened in USA, read here... a quote:
Iceland’s new banking elite were intent on expanding their ownership of the economy, competing and cooperating with each other. Using their shares as collateral, some took out large loans from their own banks, and bought more shares in the same banks, inflating share prices. It worked like this: Bank A lent to shareholders in Bank B, who bought more shares in B using shares as collateral, raising B’s share price. Bank B returned the favour. The share prices of both banks rose, without new money coming in. The banks not only grew bigger, they grew more and more interconnected. Several dealings of this kind are now under criminal investigation by the special prosecutor, as cases of market manipulation.
But Icelanders are not safe yet, the big countries do not want people to know default is a happy event. It breaks the bad guys, and ushers in peace, freedom and prosperity.
Here is the last line from the article:
Meanwhile Oddsson was appointed in September 2009 as editor-in-chief atMorgunblaðið, the leading Iceland daily, and orchestrated coverage of the crisis. A commentator said that was like appointing Nixon editor of The Washington Post after Watergate. Iceland’s elite looks after its own.
Posted in finance by John Wiley Spiers | 0 comments
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
Radiation News
So it seems the kids would not return to the village in Japan, in spite of the government assurances all were well. So mom bought a geiger counter to prove to her kids all was well. Geiger counter contradicted what government said.
All of the reactor talk convinced a fellow in Sweden he should build one in his apartment... and he blogged his experience, including the core meltdown. Police were called. Check out the other youtubes on kids building reactors... especially the eagle scout, who has radiation burns on his face.
Anthony notices this article:
"Nothing is mentioned on the geiger counter yahoo group. But I saw this posted,
It is strange. Keeping the monitor off makes people ask questions like, Why would you stop monitoring when the biggest nuclear accident since Chernobyl rages on?
Finally, if you search for geiger counters on amazon, you do not get geiger counters. You get ghost meters and non-nuclear radiation detectors.
It sounds to me like there is a business to be had in reliable information and sources...
Posted in govt regulation, New Business Opportunities / Trade Leads by John Wiley Spiers | 3 comments
Conditioning On China
Here is a comment from a reader to a post yesterday:
If you are successful in producing something, China will surely be successful in undercutting you - Chris
There is nothing to support such a statement making any sense. There are countless successful brands that have never been undercut by China, successfully or otherwise. And if the world worked that way, why would it matter?
Volkswagen, Apple, Bollinger, my books, almost nothing, really has ever been attempted at undercutting. There are countless times where successful manufacturers build factories in China to produce goods for sale in USA. But that is not China undercutting USA, that is USA undercutting USA.
There is the small issue of, if the Chinese were to undercut, to whom would they sell the items? One does need customers. Only someone who has never been in business can imagine they would be undercut by China. What matters in business is your relationship with your customers. Should your customers desire your products at a lower price, then you of course would be the one who undercut yourself. This "China as the bad guy" stuff only serves to help that bad guys in our govt and industry who got us into this mess in the first place.
The reason behind the undercutting is starting with President Johnson, and excited under Nixon and all presidents forward, was inflating currency to pay for war and empire eventually brought USA dollars back home, where they might upset the economy. When the Vietnam war ended, the dollars came back, so US Industry was directed to get that money back overseas, by buying factories, and building them.
Big govt and big biz worked hand in hand to control inflation by overseas "investment" and so draining our productive capacity. The unemployed were put on welfare, outright checks or govt jobs, so the process was relatively painless.
As China emerged it saw and opportunity to play with the USA, take the offer, produce for USA. And get paid in funny money. (China uses USA dollar payments to buy T-bills.) The idea from our industrialists was USA was trapping China by paying China in worthless paper. We got real goods, they had to be nice to us, or we'd default on our bonds.
I never thought that could be quite right, because the Chinese are not stupid, in fact, it seems they field a better first string than we do. China made things for USA, and got what they really wanted, our technology. Mission accomplished.
Just as USA can buy things overseas to cool off the money supply, so can China use USA financial instruments to pay for things, around the world. As far as I know I am the only person who has spotted this likelihood: China no longer has all those trillions... China "spent them" buying friends by making infrastructure world wide, infrastructure that supports China trade. China could care less if we default in that case, it would not cost them a dime.
There is almost nothing we buy from overseas that we cannot make ourselves. Almost all importing, as well as exporting, is a reaction to stupid government policy. We should never outlaw import or export, we should just get rid of the stupid government policies.
Posted in Business strategy, finance by John Wiley Spiers | 3 comments
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
Will They Steal My Idea?
Posted in New Product Introduction by John Wiley Spiers | 1 comments
Social Conditioning
My father taught at a small liberal arts college, English, for 40 years. He was armed with a .38 police special, every day, in every class. Of course he kept a jacket on, as did all professors in those years. And a tie.
Now you may say, well he was a Southern man. That explains being armed, and having a back-up derringer at his ankle. But there were other professors that were armed. One just did not know. No one cared. Everyone knew some people were armed.
His campus, like many schools, had a gun range and a gun club on campus. Students with rifles, usually in cases, but not always, were no more unusual than a tennis racket. That was true on campuses all over America.
My father smoked, like most professors, while teaching. It would not occur to him to drink coffee during class. And coffee out of a paper cup would iconographically signal there had been a disaster. Coffee in paper cups only meant Red Cross, huge disaster, etc. Today professors drink coffee and would not think of smoking in class. This is complete reversal is 100% a result of social conditioning.
Today police officers are conditioned to panic when they see a gun. As we moved from police as constabulary to paramilitary police, police work has attracted those who tend to fear and panic, or just follow orders. It was not always thus. If we are going to have police, we need to return to a constabulary.
Here is a picture, from the 1960s, when my father was armed. The Black Panthers were active in Washington State. They took their grievance to the Capital. And came armed, with shotguns. Six leather jacketed, bereted revolutionaries, and one bored State Patrolman. No one panicked back then.
Courtesy of Washington State Archives.
Posted in law by John Wiley Spiers | 0 comments
Monday, August 1, 2011
Microsoft Store's Extremely Stupid Move, If True.
After the post below went up, I got wind that Microsoft is offering about $10 retail, the going rate, for new hires, but is offering $15 an hour for people to leave Apple Store and come across the street to the Microsoft store. So apparently Microsoft wants to import Apple ethic into its store.
Now this is what is going on in China, where a new factory opens up, and it steals employees from an established factory, by offering higher wages. This is good. In this instance the few Apple employees for whom money is everything will move over to Microsoft, where money is everything. Those who do not move over from Apple will grouse and no doubt Apple will raise some wages. Better for workers all around. And Microsoft then has no advantage, but Apple unloaded some not-so-good employees.
Next, Apple hires thence are all purely into Apple, not just the money. Better for Apple and their customers.
At the same time, the majority of employees at Microsoft store will know, by their paychecks, that they are less valued than ex-Apple employees by Microsoft.
Microsoft had a reputation for having the smartest human resources people on the planet, and the proof was microsoft employees, who of course, because they got hired, were the smartest in the world. Proof positive. Well, if so, they must have left, because even I can tell this is very bad policy.
Posted in customers, labor by John Wiley Spiers | 0 comments
Are The Wars Over?
How would you like to be a soldier overseas, and read about the budget "crisis" (actually theatre) in USA, and see a breakdown of the deal, by the numbers:
Because of the rules Congress itself has set, the CBO is required to take current war funding levels in Iraq and Afghanistan and extend them far into the future. Plus inflation.Forget the theatre and politics, there are real USA soldiers facing real enemies overseas. The other side, very ticked off citizens of those countries, read this stuff and plan accordingly. We never had any right or business invading those countries, and now that the politicians no longer care, those soldiers are at higher risk. This is nuts.
"The way the CBO baseline is calculated is real simple," said Holtz-Eakin. "You take what is on the books and extrapolate at the rate of inflation."
But that isn't the best reflection of reality. War spending is at elevated levels at the moment. And it should soon decline. A lot.
Posted in finance by John Wiley Spiers | 0 comments
Sunday, July 31, 2011
Another Fake Apple Store! In USA! Across from Apple!
For the longest time, there were no specialty retailers, competing on design, in the category of computer gear. Apple finally figured this out, and designed their own upscale stores. They are doing so well, in China people are faking complete Apple stores, to the point the employees think they are working for Apple, see here.
This, from Apple, is the real thing.
Now, directly across the street from a very busy Apple store, another group is faking an Apple store.
That company is Microsoft, who is copying every feature of the Apple store, down to the clerks wearing solid T Shirts. Microsoft is really pushing the envelope when they put their logo on the sleeve of the shirt rather than the chest.
Happily Apple was already doing business when Microsoft began, so there was a choice in the micro-computer world. I found the Microsoft products dismaying, even a net deficit when trying to get work done. Apple products suffered no such lack, so I have been all Apple, all the time, since 1984. (I did twice buy a pc, thinking it was required in some application, but it turned out to be not true.) I go farther than many, I will not allow any microsoft software on my machines.
In their Apple store copy, Microsoft is mimicking the Apple "Genius Bar" with the Microsoft "Answer Disk." Microsoft is going after the business market, but too late, Apple is winning that battle. And Microsoft will push its Windows Phone 7. Uggh! As Apple always makes their products better with the new versions, Microsoft is always just trying to get their products to work. Version 7 and it still is no good.
Microsoft is trolling for employees, and no doubt people not hired by Steve Jobs at Apple will find gainful employment. But the url for a job at the store with Microsoft is MicrosoftStoreJobs.com. Is this subliminal advertising referring to Steve Jobs? Will people feel "Steve Jobs?"
I was mystified to watch microsoft grow in spite of its mediocre, or worse, offerings. Then I happened to see an article with the charts of growth of government workers juxtaposed to an article on the growth of microsoft. Looking closely, they were one and the same. Aha! Microsoft was selling to a government hiring people like crazy in the 80s and 90s and 00s, and provided all these people something to do all day. Screw around with a computer. And governments actually paid for software back in those days! There was no market feedback to Microsoft, just govt worker feedback that did not care if the product was any good. Whether or not these people produced anything did not matter, the taxpayer would shovel out their pay no matter what.
And since microsoft could simply shift the cost of computer security onto the govt and taxpayers, they could keep the money that would have been invested stopping spam and building security. Thus Gates' deca-billions.
Apple of course served real working people, so security was good and they came up with good spam protection, but most of all, the computers and software do what we want them to do. Microsoft never inculcated customer satisfaction into their corporate identity. So now as govt shrinks, and microsoft follows, microsoft can only copy Apple. It is kinda sad. Others have tried it, in the same shopping district, and their stores have more employees than customers.
Maybe there is hope. Bertolt Brecht said a man can reform his life with his dying breath. True, and Graham Greene countered if it is not a lifelong practice it is unlikely to occur at death.
Also, a Neiman Marcus grade electronics store might work well, as a retail venture.
Posted in New Business Opportunities / Trade Leads, product development by John Wiley Spiers | 0 comments
Blaming Obama
Just as the perpetrators of the Boston Tea Party dressed up like Mohicans to disguise the villains, so the democrats and republicans dressed up Obama to disguise their theft and perfidy. So the budget is up 35% since Obama took office. He did that all by himself? So the Allentown steel plant closed after Obama promised to keep it open.he could have done that all by himself?
If you are dumb enough to believe it's all Obama's fault, then you are dumb enough to think the next politician can fix it all by herself.
We don't need the right people, we need less people in government and more people working.
Posted in globalisation by John Wiley Spiers | 0 comments
Islam is the Religion of Peace الإسلام هو دين السلام
Islam kept the "eye for an eye" justice of the Judeo-Christian heritage, including the part that the witness or the victim be the executioner. It seems so harsh to a people conditioned to passing off their responsibility for justice to third parties, paid for by fourth parties, as we do in the United States.
In this system we have, the state becomes the offended party, and the state has no choice but to fill, and then overfill, its prisons. And whatever the political agenda of the state powers that be happens to be, is followed by this apparatus. In USA, the state policy is eugenics.
What a mess.
I occasionally hear on some talk radio while driving some nut, usually women, going on about Sharia law being instituted in USA. We never got any rule of law instituted here, why would anyone think Moslems will succeed? And even if they did, how is Sharia law worse?
Here a woman, blinded by a jilted suitor, is about to pour acid in his eyes, per the law, and she forgives him. He goes free. Allah favors the compassionate! تفضل الله الرحيم Jesus, of course, said the same thing.
Why God Almighty himself recommended eye-for-an-eye law that Jews and Christians reject is, it seems, that it allows perfect mercy instead of imperfect justice. It also provides for perfectly graded compensation, since the perpetrator is very interested in making a deal that will save his eyes. He may agree to run errands for her 4 hours a day for the rest of his life rather than be blinded himself. The taking of the eye was a relatively rare event in history of Sharia law. But mercy is far more likely.
Posted in law by John Wiley Spiers | 1 comments