Saturday, April 7, 2012

Why Government Safety Regulation Does Not Work

Here is another example of "spending the benefit"of safety devices.  For example, with ABS brakes and air bags the car crash deaths have not been reduced.  How come?  Because when you add safety devices, people compensate by taking more risks...  it is just human nature.

Cirrus aircraft has a parachute built into its single engine plane.  Way cool.  So if you engine dies, you simply deploy the aircraft parachute, and glide to earth.  Guess what?  Pilots in these craft are taking more risks.  It is just human nature.

The trick is not to have government safety regulations, it is to let the market demand what safety level it wants.  It does not good to establish standards outside of the market.

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Obamacare Going Down

When Obamacare goes down, what to do about all those "uninsured?"  The Cato Institute has a nice summary which calls for, wait for it... deregulation.  This too I have covered here, here and here.  Indeed, I see I've blogged 69 times on this topic.

The Cato Institute which is literally owned by the Koch Brothers, who in turn figuratively own the Tea Party Movement, are losing a bid to take the Cato Institute to fascist heights.  That is good.

In any event, I am glad to see the Think Tanks finally getting to my point of view.

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Friday, April 6, 2012

Small And Free

Sovereign man has an article on the peace and prosperity of small countries.  This is a topic I have covered here, here, here and here....  And what people may not realize, is the reason USA is called the United STATES is we were supposed to be small free prosperous countries who would freely trade with each other, and combine for mutual defense.   That mutual defense thing looks like a mistake.

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Greek Universitys, Hospitals to Close

Instead of just telling the banksters to shove off, they made a bad bet...  This is the future of USA, especially if you depend on the state.  Self-employment is the only escape.  Escape to anarchy!

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Thursday, April 5, 2012

Get Drunk Much?

Anyone who competes on design ought to bookmark this sight, it is relentlessly good selection of ideas people are working on...  http://www.cielbleu.ch/blog/



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Architecture of Business & Lifestyle

One of the advantage of being self-employed is you get a broader and I think more accurate assessment of what is going on.  It has occurred to me here in Hong Kong that the architecture in the United States is wrong for where we are headed economically.  I did experience a strange arrangement about 5 years ago in what appeared to be a gated community of Tudor flats near Long Beach California.  I was visiting an importer, making a purchase, and her warehouse was the garage of this business... and she lived in the two levels above. For a shop on th ground floor, and living above, is not orignal, but the housing develoment was new... so I noted it.

For the last 20 years I've been saying the days of the importer above a awarehouse in a port city are over, givern the improvement in communication and transportation.  You can live in Aspen and have a warehosue in New Jersey.    Well maybe that is changing.  That arrangement presumes a level of wealth that, given the policies to bail out a failed business model of the Bush/Obama regime,  that presumed level of wealth is gone.  You cnanot have it  because the bankers get it first.

You can complain all you like, or you can do something about out.  Sell your house and buy a warehouse with offices on top.  But the warehouse while it is cheap, and when taxes (on profits) go up to 90%, as they must, then pour your profits into making those offices splendid indeed.


In Seattle there is a zoning code provision for "night watchman" quarters in warehouses in industrial districts.  Maybe in your city too...  maybe that is the next real estate boom, warehouses and "watchman quarters" remodels.




http://www.apartmenttherapy.com/auto-the-new-york-times-6808-52886

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Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Spain Is Our Future

Something has to give... In Spain, unemployment is nearly 24% and 57% of the govt budget goes to handouts.  It is said that which cannot go on will eventually end.

History shows it does not really end,  states change the topic by starting wars.  Wars destroy the excess productive capacity, breaks all agreements, so prices can fall and the process can start again from scratch.  By killing off some 50 million people, destroying countless factories, changing various regimes, we had some economic progress after WWII.

The way around that is freedom.  There is no possible way for Spain to recover without the Spanish people free to make things and sell them.  Too many rules and regulations for that to happen.  Spain has seen this before, when under Roman oppression Spaniards escaped to the anarchy of the Islamic "invaders."  In time, the Moslem rulers became oppressive so Spaniards escaped to the anarchy of the Christian invaders.   Often we escape to anarchy, correctly defined, as "no king (state)."  Or at least a much less oppressive state.

We will not recover in USA because the policies are overwhelmingly aagainst small business start-up, especially in manufacturing.  What are our young doing today?  Working in "information industries," financial services, and playing video games?  None of that produces anything.  Unless we have a manufacturing renaissance, we are sunk.

And there is no government policy that can foster this, except for government to dismantle itself.  That cannot happen.  So, get self employed, the ultimate defensive position, and get ready to ride out whatever is coming our way.

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Bolshevism, Ex Im Bank and the Holocaust

From a US Senator:

“I would love a world without ex-im banks, but that world does not exist,” Graham said.

The reason is that US Senators keep voting for it.  And the news media repeats nonsense statistics to support the government that controls them.  If Ex Im bank is a self-supporting, money making organization, how come it is necessary the government be involved?  The Ex Im Bank is not a self-supporting, money making organization.  It is another bank bailout program.

Another claim is the Ex Im Bank helps small businesses.  Really?  How about small competitors of Boeing?  In USA big business writes rules that crush small business, to keep competition out.  If Ex Im Bank helped small businesses, it would help a small business beat Boeing at overseas contracts.

The best way to help small business get export contracts is to get rid of the regs that crush USA small business, get rid of export controls, and free our economy.  Welfare queens like Boeing would fail, but 20 airplane makers, 5 of which would be the best in the world, would save our economy.

The Ex-Im Bank was created in 1934 to bolster Soviet Communism, by US taxpayer guarantee of exports from the USA.  The guarantees were necessary because no private entity would back such a risky venture, nor did people want to materially support a regime by that time had murdered 5 million Ukrainians.  We helped save and legitimize the Bolsheviks.

That the Bolsheviks had murdered 5 million of their own subjects was well known to the Germans by 1933, and USA recognition and support of the Bolsheviks was one contributing factor to Hitler's elections and success, since Germans feared the Bolsheviks would do to Germans what the Bolsheviks had done to the Ukrainians next door.  The rest, as they say, is history.

The value of a jet is selling the seats.  To sell the jet is to give up the value.  Let Boeing lease the jets (in fact where ExIm will not subsidize, Boeing does lease), not sell them (indeed, there are plenty of 3rd party entities that buy from Boeing to in turn lease the jets to airline companies).

Ex Im Bank is just one of countless programs that at once burden the taxpayer and deny finance to worthy projects by misdirecting assets to unworthy projects.  Get rid of it.

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Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Exporting Wine to China Scenarios

The average bottle of red sells to HK/China from USA at about $2.50 a bottle.  Say a winery has a market for 5000 cases wholesale at $20.00 per bottle in USA. Then the winery has a wildly productive year, and they end up with 10,000 cases.  This can be bad. How easy is it to double your market to move the wine?  (And not all wine gets better with age).  You have to bottle it, because you cannot let it sit in vats.  You cannot pour it down the drain, because it is hazmat.  So what to do?

Click to enlarge - John Spiers 2012

Well, in an ideal year above, a market for 5000 cases and production of 5000 cases, all is good.

In an overproduction year how can they move the excess?  Cut prices?  See Overproduction Year Scenario One, in which they cut prices enough to move the product, from $20 to $10.  The revenue yield is the same, except they have had to pay for the infrastructure to move twice as much wine, plus they have reduced their perceived value in the USA market.

So go to scenario two, where they release only the ideal 5000 cases onto the USA market, and then dump the rest in China.  The infrastructure in USA need not be beefed up, the price is maintained as is the perceived value in USA of the brand, plus they increase revenue by $150,000. Dumping in China is good business, especially when USA govt subsidies impel massive malinvestment in the form of overinvestment, as is the case of the wine industry.  (USA is the #1 export dumper on planet earth.)

Now this example is just illustrative.   In reality, most wineries are set in a vinyard as a tax-write off.  The vinyard does not grow the right kind, let alone enough grapes for wine production, each winery buys its grapes from big grape brokers.  So getting "caught" with overproduction is unlikely.

Nonetheless, one way or another, it happens enough to where in 2008 nearly six million litres of red wine were exported to China from USA at an average of $2.85 per bottle.  Email me for a .pdf report.

This cheap wine, when it gets to China, is abused in distribution, so when a bottle of USA is opened, the impression of the drinkers is "yecccchhh..."  Hence, the USA subsidies ruined the market for USA wine in China, the fastest growing market in the world.

To address the problem of wine abused in distribution, Crown Transport of Hong Kong, a logistics company, bought the caves the Brits used to store ammo in Hong Kong, perfect temp for storing wine, and set up a wine storage and distribution biz...  http://www.crownwinecellars.com/  Chinese have been moving their collections from Europe and UK to Hong Kong.


Like every other situation in business, it ain't the cards you are dealt, it is how you play the hand.  I m not in the wine business, but I am delighted to be advising some people who are, as to how given the facts on the ground, building sustainable market for USA wine in China.

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Monday, April 2, 2012

Where Is the Customer?

Notice the last line in this story...

After all that time effort money creativity they are yet to see if there is a customer, and what customer they anticipate would undoubtedly lead to failure.

This is precisely the sequence people follow and end up losing money... a couple of common mistakes...  expecting big chains to be your customers and speaking to lawyers for business advice.

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Gas Chambers Anger People

And there is money to be made by killing people slowly...

We desperately need a free market in medicine.  It would help lead an economic recovery too.

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Start-up Just Got Easier

Especially if you are competing on design, and need samples...

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Sunday, April 1, 2012

Poor People's Tax

Before lotteries hit washington state, two politicians went to jail for discussing it.  Then the lotteries came.  A study was done to find out who bought tickets.  It showed the poor, minority and uneducated were the big buyers.  Ooooops... so another company was hired to study it, and guess what, they found it was actually rich white people who were buying the tickets.  Whew!

So comes a study that we all already knew, it is poor, uneducated minorities who buy the tickets, and they do so because it offers "the only chance for radical change." 

No one told them about self employment.

This is how it works:  discourage a group, flood its community with welfare money, drugs and lottery, and let gravity do its work.  It is genocide.
Newstimes.com
There is a reason religions forbid lotteries and lassitude, it kills.

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Property, Paycheck or Pension

If your well being is tied to any of the three, you are a sitting duck.  The powers that be are consolidating their ability to flexibly apply violence on those who resist having what is theirs tapped to bail out the banksters.  Note the false dilemma presented by the Irish leader in this article: this tax or disaster.

There is an alternative: repudiate the debt, and watch prices of everything begin to fall.  We are in this problem for reasons relating to actions which caused prices to rise.  proof of the policies undoing the damage will be falling prices.

Recall: At 9% interest, circa 1990, he who could afford a $200,000 home could also afford at 6% a $300,000 home. The month payment is the same, the income to the bank is the same.  By 2000, interest rates were in fact 6%. Did people then buy $300,000 homes? No, people paid $300,000 for $200,000 homes.  This is how home prices rose so quickly.

This was not accidental.  With the dotcom bust inevitable, Greenspan had armies of economists fan out across USA to figure out how to inflate the economy.  It was decided housing would do the trick.  Hence falling interest rates.  Party on.

Presently, the last bubble, is the stock market.  Kiss that pension good bye.

Observe:  Lowering interest and expanding the (putative) money supply caused house prices to rise.  Cheap money allowed governments to borrow wildly, and raise taxes to cover the bond obligations.  property taxes poured in and no one cared because property values skyrocketed.

Now property values are sinking, but the bond obligations stay steady.  Fiscal constraints abound.  Working people can give up more (the loss is being made up in food and gas prices for now, and cutting back on services such as police and fire) or the bonds can be repudiated.  Teach the lenders a lesson.  Will our credit be shot?  No!  When we owe nothing, and can make payments, our credit is excellent.  Or better yet, once free, stop borrowing.

We can also take this opportunity to adjust the wild excesses in our social services.  It is a little gurded secret that the welfare rolls are gorged with fraudsters.  And where else in the world can you get a truck load of millionaires to show up at a fire with one phone call?  70% of out firefighters are volunteers in USA, each every bit as trained and capable as their welfare-queen counterparts in the city.

We have learned since Katrina in a disaster we are on our own.  FEMA exists for FEMA, just as TSA exists for TSA.  Let's get rid of 911 and sort out being on our own without the disaster to make the transition so much harder.

Another alternative is to have prices fall so low in say housing that the taxes obligated are in fact met.  Say your typical home needs to generate $500 per month in taxes to cover current obligations.  And the typical homeowner can afford to pay $900 month for the typical home.  Then house prices need to fall to the point where mortgage payments are typically $400, so that the taxes of $500 are affordable.  This way we need not inconvenience the welfare queen firefighters. But it does stick it to the banks, which gores the powers that be.

The damage was done during the boom years.  The bust is simply the time where "who pays?' for the damage is decided.  The decision is working people will pay, both in takings and denyings. Working people are having their paychecks, property and pensions tapped, and at the same time being denied the new and better that would be coming to market if paychecks pensions and property were not being tapped to enrich the very few.

This is the big loss, what we do not see: newer and better of everything in medicine, religion, education, housing, entertainment.  We cannot effect change through the state, since election fraud is material.

The only hope is to fight the good fight and start a business.  And in starting a business, you are rather obliged to go through a personal transformation.