Saturday, August 17, 2013

Paul Romer on Hong Kong & Charter Cities

Comes now a welcome call to create more Hong Kongs.  Sadly the fellow has some profound misunderstandings, but not that cannot be overcome.  He begins his talk with the effect of rules, so let me make a point about rules.  Crises are in relation to rules.  New rules are formed at times of crises.  At whatever point we are in the freedom continuum, if rules are relaxed, if there is deregulation at crises points, things get better.  If rules that precipitate crises beget more rules, thing get worse.  Hong Kong, few rules, peace and prosperity.  Pyongyang, the most rules, horror.  When we face crises we have a choice, make things better or worse.


Now comes Paul Romer with a Ted Talk advocating charter cities like charter schools.  We set up Hong Kong style polities around the world, wherever people ask for them.  Exactly who "we" is is vague, but certainly Paul Romer is there to lend a hand.

What is missing is a set of rules that give choices not only to people but to leaders, avers Romer.

He cites Korea, where a common people embraced diametrically opposed sets of rules and yielded opposite results, North and South Korea, and certainly South Korea looks more attractive compared to North Korea.    But that misses the point of where Korea would be if it was not so government intensive - both Koreas have local governments plus hegemons.  Korea, even split in two, tells us nothing.  Hegemons fog the picture.

I was in China before and after Deng Xiao-ping took Lee Kwan Yew's advice and copied Hong Kong in Shenzhen and 3 other cities, eventually going to twenty and more.  I watched the changes as the iron control of the communists withdrew, and freedom flowered in its place, under the aegis of the communist party.  In that event, the powers that be conscientiously decided to deregulate in the face of a crisis.  Good things followed.

I also watched India attempt to compete with China in this regard, and as near as I can tell, in essence the residual rajah-ism and caste system has kept it from flowering.  Here is the difference;  India adopted the rule-intensive British Socialism regnant at the time of its liberation from the UK.  As Romer suggests in the opening of his talk, rules matter, and India is burdened by a legacy of rules alien to India.

Rules are not universally applicable, for they flower in culturally dependent expression.  And to this end, the fewer rules the better, for any majority will oppress a creative minority.  Even worse when an alien hegemon (the rulesmakers) show up, for they cripple everyone.  This is not limited to polities: India's greatest mathematician arrived at correct answers by means his British betters found inscrutable, and no doubt vice versa. But the fact of the matter is, there is such a thing as "Hindu mathematics" and "German mathematics" even in the pure sciences... how much more so in cultural learnings?  What happens when we say "there are a set of universally applicable rules..." ?  Hang on, whose rules?

When discussing rules, and lamenting a given president's dilemma on deregulation, Romer poses conflicting choices facing a president whose power allows him to set electricity rates, between those who want market forces in electricity and those who "... want the choice to continue consuming subsidized electric power."   The mind boggles!  "want?"  "choice?' "continue consuming?" "subsidized?"  How many internal contradictions can one pack into a single sentence?

There is a point in his talk where Romer cautions us against weak governments.   "Rules can be bad because governments are weak... it is not only rules can be bad because governments are strong like North Korea."

This is where Romer's profound misunderstanding causes his argument to come crashing down.  The Chinese Communist Party sponsors two of the weakest governments on earth.  Obviously Hong Kong, under the Communist Party's one country, two systems policy.   And the Red China itself, with an extremely small political party over a massive stretch of real estate.  China is largely self-governing at very low levels.  And what laws China has are few and far between, and apparently whimsically enforced.  This makes for relatively peaceful and prosperous polities.

China is not like Somalia, which descended into chaos compliments of the various super-powers who imposed many regimes from outside, and eventually outright invaded.  Somalia failed for having too much government.  China is performing remarkably for having so little.

The miniscule UK could rule the waves because its practice was to share power and allow locals to thrive.  Tho. Sowell notes from his research that Americans of some Africa ancestry come from either British or French sources. Those from British sources are wealthier, those from French are less so.  France did not share power with locals.  Relative freedom, lack of central rules is important.

Romer shows us pictures of vast stretches of African coastline, empty expanses where new cities could be chartered from scratch.  Why?  Tunis would be an excellent location for a new Hong Kong.  In fact the Tunisian government was in Hong Kong studying the city-state when their hyper-government martinets beat and robbed a fellow trying to feed his family by selling fruit, without a license.  The Arab spring followed.  Too late now.

Romer recommends Canada and Cuba get together and transform Guantanamo Bay into a new Hong Kong.  Umm.. Paul...  you mean that which USA maintains as a prison?  Weren't you just talking of rules? If the USA had the ability to make a polity better than it was, Gurantanamo Bay would already be a new Hong Kong, and not a prison housing largely innocent Moslems.  Irony, much?

Romer has the idea that these cities can delegate control of certain sectors to other nations... my guess is perhaps the British can be the police, the Germans the philosophers, the French the cooks, and the Italians the designers, and the Swedes the politicians?  Is that not too much government?  Will we not end up with British cooks, German cops, Italian politicians, French designers, Swedish philosophers? Romer says we can share our ideas with the benighted races.  So, it is their fault, their circumstances?  The fact USA has military presence in over 180 countries has no bearing on current events?  Might a starting place for making the world a better place just bring USA troops home?  Then see what happens?

That we can show these people how to make for good international rules...  uggh... here again: Hong Kong thrives for its policies are unilateral.  Chile is free to trade in any way it likes with Hong Kong, and Hong Kong requires no reciprocity.  The test of a good policy, even no policy, is that it is effective even though it requires no reciprocity.  The only reason a policy needs reciprocity is to assure the group targeted for annihilation by the policy cannot escape annihilation.  You name the policy, and I will show you the group so targeted.  All policies have winners and losers. Otherwise, why would the state need to back them up with violence?

Romer tells us we can finance the whole infrastructure of a charter city by the rising land values, such as Hong Kong and Singapore saw in their development.  Oooops... Paul, no one is allowed to own land in Hong Kong.  Rethink that key point.

The problem with Romer's argument is he proceeds from the "white man's burden" school of thought.  Excellence comes from the white race.  And to make his point, he cites a Chinese city.  Irony, again.

The historical fact is every excellent polity is sheer accident.  If we admire, Hong Kong, Sweden, Monaco, Andorra, Iceland, Singapore, Costa Rica, wherever, each is its own unique accident in history.  Hong Kong was formed by Scotsmen who were tasked with creating a British base of operations in South China.  These Scotsmen where of the same ilk as the Scotsmen who were forming the USA at the same time, and they were all informed by the laissez faire philosophy they imported from France, which had its genesis from studying the Spanish Scholastics who found it in the writings of the Moslems who were driven out of Spain, who had inherited it from the libraries of the heretical Christians the Moslems conquered, libraries of Greek and Roman classical authors, who had received it from the oriental sources and then fades away in antiquity.  

Hong Kong and USA were based on the same premises at the same time.  Hong Kong stayed the course, while USA changed.  That both USA and Hong Kong host a diverse group of people, with many languages spoken, and are equal in economic power per capita is no coincidence.  But that Hong Kong is a center of peace and prosperity while USA is the #1 source of terror in the world is the result of a change in rules in the USA, or more to the point, the addition of rules where before there were none.

Now, there is no doubt Hong Kong is completely in Chinese hands, and doing well, currently sans White Man's direction.  This suggests there is something culturally-neutral in play, and I would suggest that is freedom.  It is not rules, Romer's starting point, that matter, but freedom.  Freedom is that ether in which people thrive, and polities emerge, the less rules the better, the more rules the worse.

Freedom is a fundamental human condition.  Hong Kong has rules, but they are largely unknown outside of the voluntary associations that keep Hong Kong peaceful and prosperous.  Freedom to agree to rules is the basis for effective rules.  There is no State that can provide freedom, for a state must necessarily deny some freedom for the state to exist.

Hong Kong has exactly the same distribution of rogues and villains any other location on planet earth might hold, it is just in Hong Kong they have no means of gaining the leverage to do much evil before running into one of the voluntary associations that keep the others in check.  That is how anarchy works, and why Hong Kong is the best example extent of anarchy in action.

On the other hand, in say rules-rich USA, if you have an abiding hatred of, say, people of some African heritage, your best bet is to seek employment with the government, where under the color of law you can do as much damage as you like, with impunity.  Rules provide opportunities to very evil people.

Freedom existed before mankind.  Mankind emerged from freedom, and we carry traces of pre-creation in our unique capacity for free will.  Freedom is not unique to any race or culture.  Look at Hong Kong.  Look at history.  Sure, freedom had some time with the white man, but it has moved on.

If anyone wants to see a new Hong Kong develop, Tunis might still be a good candidate.  But is it for Tunisians to unilaterally advance to freedom.  No one from the outside can bring "rules" that will effect progress.

Detroit is another excellent candidate, and time and again is showing it may happen, independent of the ruleskeepers, in spite of the ruleskeepers.  If Detroit goes free, it will be in spite of the rulesbuilders.  Until Detroit goes free, no one in USA should be making recommendations to the rest of the world.



Romer is rent seeking.  "We've fouled our nest, with a little chutzpah, we can find new nests to lord over."  How about we straighten out the USA first.  Haven't we done enough harm?



Are those Hong Kong phosphorus bombs, or USA phosphorus bombs?

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Friday, August 16, 2013

Anarchy & the Start-up

 Here is an excellent article on business start up, again with the comments section instructive.
What’s the most important step an entrepreneur can take to create a startup community?Just do stuff. It’s kind of that simple. It’s literally entrepreneurs just starting to do things. If you’re in a city where there’s no clear startup community, the goal is not raise a bunch of money to fund a nonprofit, the goal is not get your government involved. The goal is start finding the other entrepreneurial leaders who are committed to being in your city over the next 20 years. Then, as a group, get very focused on knowing each other, working together, being inclusive of anyone else who wants to engage, doing things that help recruit people to that geography, and doing selfish stuff for your company that also drives your startup community.
One of the commenters laments that the subject's focus is on software start-ups, yes...  we need to think in terms of every kind of business.  Kaufman is touting Feld as well...
Feld says sustainable entrepreneurial communities must have: Two types of people: leaders (entrepreneurs) and feeders (people who support startups, such as government agencies, funders, service providers). While the "feeders" are the very fabric of the community, the entrepreneurs must be in the lead. A long-term view and commitment to building this community A philosophy of inclusiveness that welcomes everyone with an interest, not just entrepreneurs Substantive activities that engage the entire community to help startups move forward ...
Here is the offending comment...
importance of business culture ... of the startup ecosystem, such as banks that will lend to startups ...as well as accontants and lawyers willing to defer fees.
No startup in the history of mankind has needed banks, accountants or lawyers.  they only need customers.  This is an example done during the serial banking, dotcom and stock booms of the last thirty years.  There are would-be entrepreneurs hanging on with an EBT card lamenting that business startup is not like an EBT card.  There is no need for lawyers, accountants and CPAs to get started.  Just get started.

See what they are doing in Detroit...

“For all intents and purposes, there is no government here,” said Willerer, 43, checking the greens and other crops he is growing on an acre off Rosa Parks Boulevard, across from an abandoned house with broken windows. “If something were to happen we have to handle that ourselves.”

You can too.

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Chinese Modern Art

Evocative Ceramics - The Chinese art scene is coming into its own...

http://english.cri.cn/6566/2013/08/15/3302s782119_4.htm


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Thursday, August 15, 2013

The Honda Jet


aopa.org

At $4.5 million apiece, the HondaJet will introduce air travel as a taxi service. In time the price will be so low you'll simple go to some outlying airport and hop a jet to wherever you want to go for the same price as the lugubrious peanut pushing airlines.   The jets will line up awaiting passengers like the automobile taxis outside the airport.  Thank Jimmy Carter when this day comes, for deregulating the airlines.

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Alibaba As a Resource

After performing basic trade data analysis, incoming message:
I found out that Im getting ripped off from my Chinese Alibaba supplier, even though I thought I was paying a  great price at $64 a bundle (kilo/9) or $576 per Kilo.
But wait... alibaba is alibaba...  if you used them, they did not rip you off, you simply did not do your job in getting your facts first..  There is no such thing as an outrageous price offer, only outrageous price concession.  And you can know the going prices before you ever speak to a suppliers, that is why you analyze the trade data before you start.

I agree, stay away from alibaba.com, but don't complain that they do what they do.  Professionals do not go near that site.

Email me if you want a pdf of how to analyze trade data...

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Wednesday, August 14, 2013

The Patent Mess About To Get Worse

We just reformed the patent regime, but things got far worse.  So now, they will try to fix it again, by various means.  Patents are a private tax on the public, and quite valuable, so the players keep tweaking who gets to steal how much.  There is no incentive to get the intent of the Constitution right, only to get  theft pitch perfect.

Here is a dizzying summary of the problems at hand now, and the incoherent policy responses.  Of course no "responsible party" is advocating just scrapping the entire system and let freedom reign.  Now way.  Not when there are favors to sell.
In March 2011, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) released The Evolving IP Marketplace: Aligning Patent Notice and Remedies with Competition, its antitrust policy review of the patent marketplace in which it unveiled the term “patent assertion entities” (PAEs) as a substitute for the derisive term “patent trolls.”
The author of the piece gets one point wrong
Yet I would still suggest that the paradox of PAEs ultimately exists in the nature of the U.S. patent system, not in antitrust policy. In the United States, patents are recognized as a legal instrument of private property rights. 
I'd trust Patry on this point, there is no such property right in USA law.

The basic canon that needs to be read by anyone interested in this topic is:

Kinsella on Patents   http://mises.org/books/against.pdf

Bodrin Levine on Intellectual Property Wrongs

http://levine.sscnet.ucla.edu/general/intellectual/against.htm

Although Patry is pro-patent, he proves that patents and copyrights are destructive in practice and why,




I thank Larry for this article...

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Anthony Inquires About Robots Replacing labor

Anthony Asks -

What do you make of Mish's argument that robots will take over jobs once based on human labor?  He keeps posting articles and making comments now and then about the subject


That technology will solve the immigration problem before congress.

Mish also hints in other articles that loose monetary policy and heavy regulation are driving the replacement of human labor with machines/robots much faster than we've seen.  But doesn't a business owner naturally want this, regardless of government action?  Does Austrian doctrine address this phenomena?  And where does this leave the would-be importer?   

And I say...

I'd agree the progressive's essentially anti-human policies precipitate a race to mechanization.

Sure, Biz owners want this, but they try to outrun State policy that is focussed on collectivization.  All business owners are trying to outrun State harm.

The Austrian School only says absent the State, peace and prosperity.

The importer exploits management, not labor, so it matters little if items are machine made or robot made.



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Tuesday, August 13, 2013

300 Tonnes of Nuclear Waste Today, Everyday from Fukushima

Read all about it, from Mish.  You can thank Uncle Sam and GE for the disaster.  If you let a democracy handle utilities, the design and execution is at its core waste fraud abuse with some electricity or whatever as a by-product.  That we have been lied to everyday by Japanese authorities is no secret, but to what extent do the lies continue?  As long as profits before people is tolerated by the people.

Nuclear energy occurs naturally on earth, and the USA was first to industrialize the natural occurring process, for war.  Of course, like genes, the USA controls God-given gifts with patents.

Japan builds bridges to nowhere and Keynesian Disnelyands of Waste, but cannot get its act together to freeze the ground to protect Japan and the world, while awaiting a fix to be figured out for the problem.

Nuclear power is a great thing, if designed well.  Like cars.  Detroit used to amaze the world with its cars.  Not any more, since GM is government motors.  The Yugo was a disgrace to Yugoslavia, as are the government subsidized  nuclear power plants put out by GE the Yugo of nuclear power.

If we had a free market in nuclear power, we'd have more better cheaper safer faster power.  The time ahs come to open source all patents on nuclear power and eliminate all subsidies and restrictions on the creation and distribution thereof.  People and profits.

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O Yes There Is!

It is pretty clear a missile, probably fired by the USNavy brought down TWA Fight 800 in 1996, killing all several hundred people onboard.  It is probably an accident, or sabotage, but a missile it was.

The counter argument is why would anyone cover up the truth and how could "they keep the truth a secret for eighteen years?  Well as to why cover up the truth, you'd have to ask those covering it up.  An independent investigation would arrive at that.  Not for us to say.  AS to keeping such a big thing secret for so long, well, it has not been a big secret for a long time, because people have been shouting what they saw all along.  The official version stank from the beginning.  It never went quiet.

One reoccurring theme is responsible parties are just now, upon retirement, coming out and speaking the truth, what with their pensions secured.    Waiting until there is no risk to them is despicable, but despicable is the best we get in people charged with securing our safety and rights.  There is the rare Bradley Manning and Edward Snowden, but see what happens to them.

The New York Times would like the evidence reviewed again, but is saddened there is no entity in Government which can be trusted to do the right thing.   Exactly, the New York Times is now speaking the truth as it prepares to shut down.  What have they go to lose? In the USA, there is no element in law enforcement that can any longer be trusted, from the local magistrate to the Supreme Court.

But there is a solution, the Truth Commissions.  Give people immunity for prosecution to tell the truth.  Now this is not possible since the Federal Government will punish anyone it likes on the most whimsical grounds, so we need a safe third party to provide the venue, say, compliments of American Defector Edward Joseph Snowden, Hong Kong, Moscow, Havana or Caracas.  We might have a place if we made Detroit and new Hong Kong, but there is no chance for truth to get out in USA as it is now.

People who have committed "crimes" can defect from the USA, give evidence, and be safe from retaliation.  We need a means to sort these things out, and truth commissions are the way.

Truth commissions, a workable alternative.

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Monday, August 12, 2013

China Trade Predictions - Grace Notes

Mish and Pettis are good China-watchers, although I have critiqued Pettis before.   Here is some solid analysis of economic predictions on China...
Under specified rebalancing assumptions for China it is possible to calculate arithmetically the annual growth rate for consumption and investment under different GDP growth scenarios. This allows us to decide whether these scenarios are plausible or not. 
The thing that needs to borne in mind as considering these calculations is two items:

1.  China is better off in its relations with the world than USA, and requires less to be friends than USA requires.  Until the USA abandons those who have a claim regarding unfunded pension liabilities on the faith and credit of the USA, the USA needs to make far more money than China does.  Or more to the point, USA needs to take far more money that the Chinese can make.

2. The Chinese can stand going without luxuries far easier than the other Western States which will experience economic downturn soon.

The problem the USA faces is the wars we are involved in now, and the ones in the future, will be the Wars to Fund the American Unfunded Pension Liability.  We have voted ourselves such unimaginable luxury and leisure time that inevitably people focus on retirement as a component of their employment.  At the same time, self-employment and industry are punished by regulation and chaotic taxation.  Every small business is a mere bagatelle tolerated as a step in the process of drawing even more people into the welfare collective.

Read the comments sections in news reports.  We are a country turning on each other over spoils.  C'est la vie.  St Paul said something about where sin abounds, grace abounds all the more.  Hard to see grace notes, let alone grace abounding, in this polity.  Here is a pretty good alternative.

There are tremendous headwinds, but it is the small businesses that carry the day.

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Sunday, August 11, 2013

Will It Be Spain?

Mish has a good sense of how things work, and he is wondering if Spain will of the way of Cyprus.  Who knows what will happen and when, but one thing is sure, it will go very badly when it finally gets out of hand.  1979, 82, 88, 97, 2002 2008 economic crises were all failures of policy, and the replacement policy always made it worse, except if you were on the winning side of the policy.

There will come a time when the powers that be cannot get enough coordination to achieve some sort of stasis.  The things will unravel until it gets hard in ways we cannot foresee. Yet we forge ahead anyway.

After that essay about Bastiat, it is ironic that we are willing to plunge ahead forward not knowing what horrors await yet another policy tweak, bit we are unwilling to forge ahead not knowing what freedom will bring, what would forms as things get better in ways we cannot foresee.

Democracies are like that.  The world's first known democracy voted to be oppressed.  Everyone in power knows this, and decided to give the people what they want, good and hard.

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