A Tale of Two Desktop 3D Printers

Indiegogo has a pretty interesting offer on another "desktop 3D printer", rather fully formed when compared to what is now shipping out of Hong Kong, mentioned last week.

I am very interested in seeing crowdfunding, which is a Shariah compliant form of finance, re-emerge in the post-capitalist world.  Of course the powers that be are making crowdfunding necessarily a criminal offense in USA, slowly but surely as you will see if you search the term on this blog, but we can always hope that capitalism falls before crowdfunding is stamped out.

A side point:

Looking at the indiegogo offering, the RapideOne prototype is rather fully formed.

http://www.3ders.org/articles/20131109-dynamic-and-fresh-looking-rapide-one-3d-printer-soon-on-indiegogo.html

And then the page on indiegogo looks rather world class.  They overshot their $50,000 goal, and are now going for a stretch. The "production values" of their page promotion surely cost more than the $50,000 they are asking for.  My initial thought was along the lines of "is a well-funded effort using indiegogo as a platform to announce its machine?  Has indiegogo now figured out a way to capitalize on the "garage-band" cachet to cash-in?"  Indiegogo gets a cut of the action, fair enough.  But have they moved on to taking a fee as well?  I have no opinion one way or another, only wonder at the evolution of this funding mechanism.  If not, why not?  And if not, might a start-up crowdfunder base a model on that?

But more to my point:

The RapideOne is well-funded and not yet shipping.  Now compare the fellow in Hong Kong, who is shipping his desktop 3D printer, the MakiBox, as something of a kit.  Compare the below 3D Printer with the above.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/03/tech/innovation/3d-printer-makibox/

My bet is MakiBox, over time, will crush RapideOne in the market.  How come?

Here is my answer:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1328439/First-Apple-Steve-Jobs-auction-150k-Christies.html

This is the first Apple Computer that shipped.

1. RapideOne is over-designed as a new product.  They are guessing what the market wants.

     A. RapideOne has run ahead with design based on the work of a few high-priced engineers, not on customer demand.  The few necessarily go off in a direction for which the market neither wants nor cares.  Such design values cost.

    B. The indiegogo angle is too clever by half.  They clearly believe "hype" and "buzz" is enough to succeed, and it creates a feedback loop that satisfies but does not fulfill.

   C. It appears RapideOne is building its own facilities commensurate with its ambitions.  Madness!  With massive overcapacity, farming out and subcontracting is the way to go.

   D. RapideOne implicitly admits it will take a loss on its first iterations.

RapideOne is leaving money on the table as it leapfrogs over profitable iterations. They are borrowing money to spend on nothing of value as they ignore customer feedback while running ahead.  Good luck with that.

Makibox, on the other hand, is shipping already to real customers.  Using subcontractors makes for speed and flexibility, something Apple does to this day.  MakiBox is already getting feedback from actual use on what is needed next.  By designing strictly to the end of "enough customer orders to cover the cost of a minimum production run, in a workable amount of time, profitably" Makibox is making money already as feedback on what is next is pouring in.  This feedback will fuel an upward design path that most closely tracks consumer demand.

No doubt RapideOne is necessarily playing the IPR angle as well, along with NDRs and NCRs, while MakiBox's best ideas are still nascent, so could not possibly be fully expressed, let alone "stolen."  Unless RapideOne can hire mind readers and thought-anticipators, advantage MakiBox.

The fact that RapideOne is priced at $1500 on Indiegogo (projected at $2400 after launch) and MakiBox is some $300 is utterly irrelevant.  The thing that matters is MakiBox is turning a profit and RapideOne is not.  The prices could be reversed and I'd bet on MakiBox, if all other aspects remained the same.

I speak with countless young people who assure me there is no chance for their ideas to go forward for want of the millions in "seed money" to get going.  I am looking forward to MakiBox becoming Exhibit A to the contrary.  There are countless other examples, but desktop 3D printing is the Spirograph of the twenty-tens, and so will have iconic status as an example.

And in the USA market, RapideOne will look like a deep pockets company product, necessarily immediately inviting lawsuits.  MakiBox will for a while like a bloodless turnip.

My bet: MakiBox wins out.

Update:

In Los Angeles I'll offer an all day international trade start-up boot camp, Sat March 15, at Orange Coast College...  click here to register...

Importing as a Small Business

    

Class Description Learn how you can become an importer now in a one-day seminar highly rated for the instructor's experience, pace, candor and humor. You will be guided through licensing, selecting products, finding suppliers; working with governments, bankers, brokers, carriers; financing, costing and pricing, and gaining orders for your products. This knowledge becomes the basis for an export business as well.  After the seminar,  help via email with instructor and past students is included.  Class ID: 16510 Saturday, 9:00 am - 5:00 pm; 1 session starting March 15, 2014, ending March 15, 2014 Tuition: $95.00 Instructor: Spiers Registration Closes On: March 16, 2014 12:00 AM

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Lots of Design, Cheap Materials

Tetrapak solved the problem of distribution of perishables when no refrigeration was available.  Billions followed.   So did waste packaging.

Now comes a fellow who has figured out how to turn the packaging into lamps...

Ted Van Doorn's mantra, "lots of design, inexpensive material..."

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Importing As a Nonprofit Organization

I intend to use a nonprofit organization. As this is a new idea to me I’d like to know which portion of the class addresses the issue of nonprofits & imported goods. Basically, how long do we wait before the class gets to this exciting issue? Thanks.

Uh-oh...  I put that in there to preview who might have this idea...  it is a particularly difficult prospect for many reasons, but to answer your question directly, I don't cover or recommend importing as a nonprofit.  To wit:

1. Fatal flaw: organizing around the nonprofit mission, instead of the customer.

2. Funding from charitable giving, not customers.

3. First rate customers find nonprofits less responsive to feedback, and are disinclined to work with them.

4. Suppliers are flying blind producing for a charity, as opposed to a business which is tied into a market, with a feedback loop.  The best suppliers are disinclined to work with a nonprofit.

There is usually, with importing, something offensive about this mission, such as "preserving" a native culture, when the actual humans in those cultures no more want their situation preserved than mine wanted the English to keep them starving on the bogs 200 years ago. People want hope and change and that only comes from religion and trading freely.

Now, there is nothing to keep you from running a first rate company and then donating the profits.   This is exactly what Newman's Own brand does.

Hope that helps...

John

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No Deflation, No Economic Recovery

It is simply not possible to have an economic recovery without deflation.

Deflation is a monetary event, where the prices of goods and services drop due to a concomitant reduction in the units of currency.  That is to say, if fewer units of currency, the fewer units it takes to buy something, so the price appears to be falling.

Food, housing, medicine, clothing, education, security, you name it, they are all overpriced and we are slowly but surely being destroyed by the current economic regime, which wreaks havoc through inflation, the creation of currency in excess of assets.  The people on the commanding heights say:

The growing danger of deflation threatens to derail the global economic recovery, Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said on Wednesday as she stressed that the world had yet to put the financial crisis behind it.
“With inflation running below many central banks’ targets, we see rising risks of deflation, which could prove disastrous for the recovery,” said Ms Lagarde, in a speech at the National Press Club in Washington. “If inflation is the genie, then deflation is the ogre that must be fought decisively.”

Of course they would say that.  How absurd!  What recovery?  You see any recovery?  Not me!  What they are really saying is "We need to continue your slow motion devastation so we can have more stuff you cannot have."  Politics today is no better than that.

Deflation will signal they have lost control and the free market is making adjustments.  When your paycheck is smaller in terms of units, but it takes even fewer units to buy what you need and want, then you'll know the economy is improving.

Until there is deflation, your destruction will continue.  The only indication things are improving, that the powers that be have lost their death grip on your prosperity, is when you see prices falling.

One reason you never learned Latin in school is you might read and learn that this has all been done before, and you can see exactly how it will turn out.

Say, how about those SeaHawks?

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Competing On Price

On Jan 14, 2014, at 12:14 AM, J wrote:

Dear John,

Your reasoning makes sense. The question now is to figure out what problems can be answered outside of supplying the product (delivery, mixing, blending, ***). We provide for example all the paperwork, fill in the customer surveys, quality requirements which often takes a long while but pays off at the end with good profitability.

*** So compete on service...?  As Peter Drucker said, once introduce, innovations become standard.  I was thinking designing new chemicals, and selling those as the proprietor, instead of a trader.***

(named product) is a product manufactured by a Chinese producer for whom we distribute the product for many years of course more competitive than (competitor) the other producer. So far it has been a huge success.

***Looks like you have a good model there...***

What other services could be provided in your opinion we could crowdsource? We have never offered such a thing of the past so we lack imagination in that respect J

***Crowdsource ideas from the people you want as customers...  survey them as to what they want that they are not now getting....***

John

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San Francisco Area Live All Day International Trade Start-up Course

Foothill/DeAnza College is hosting me for an all-day intensive international trade start-up course.  This is strictly noncredit and an intense orientation.  There is after-class assistance by email to keep you going along the path.  The course is highly rated, and well worth travelling to the Bay Area to attend.  Register now to secure your spot and then get a cheap airline ticket this far in advance... the all day course is only $89.00...   the only other city in which I offer live seminars is Los Angeles.  Pick up skills you can act on in this unique and highly rated course.

Class Description

Come learn the strategies those thriving in small business international trade use to grow and build their business. You will be guided through selecting products, finding customers, working with governments, licensing, bankers, brokers, carriers, financing, costing, pricing and gaining orders for your products, all from a practicing professional. Highly rated by students for content, pace and humor. Recommended textHow Small Business Trades Worldwide by Instructor is available at on Amazon.com.

Class ID: 2907

Saturday, 9:00 am - 5:00 pm; 1 session starting February 22, 2014, ending February 22, 2014

Course Fee: $89.00

Instructor: Spiers

Location: De Anza College, G Building , Rm. G-7       Map

Registration Closes On: February 23, 2014 12:00 AM

Sign up here now...

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Courts Divert Tens of Millions From Charity

Ty Warner of Beany Baby fame got shaken down this week, on threat of jail time:

As part of his sentence, Kocoras also ordered Warner to do 500 hours of community service at local Chicago high schools. When he pleaded guilty, Warner agreed to pay $27 million in back taxes and interest, and a civil penalty of more than $53 million — one of the largest such penalties ever paid.

This multi-billionaire whose wit and skill turned a fad into a mania was bringing in so much cash he was buying resorts such as the Four Seasons hotel in NYC, and parking it where could.  Advisors of his put him in touch with UBS Bank, whose officers are now under indictment, to deposit some 25 million at one point, again, out of billions the man has earned.

When Warner discovered he had this relatively trifling amount in an ill-reported account in Switzerland, Warner directed his financial people to voluntarily reveal the error.  To qualify for an amnesty under these circumstances, you must admit guilt.  And once admitted, it is impossible to deny guilt, or change to the fact it was an error.

The government decided to make an exception out of Warner, the world's first self-employed billioniare.  They prosecuted him shook him down for nearly a hundred million upon threat of spending the rest of his life in prison.  He was giving most of it away, and that was undeniable, and the judge so noted.

So Warner escaped jail time, but the government picked up tens of millions that will not now make it to charity.

Prosecutors want a trophy, so they go after our best and brightest to prove they are ruthless and therefore of value ot the powers that be.  Milliken, Martha Stewart, Aaron Swartz driven to suicide, and now Ty Warner, all good people, our best and brightest, punished by a legal system that rewards headhunting.

The law is supposed to bring order, but it only brings chaos in USA.  Small businesses are routinely crushed, creative people are prosecuted, while bankers and others are bailed out in a low motion theft of  the fruits of those who actually produce something for a living.

We do have the ability to maintain order, and that is for juries to nullify the cases against prosecutors.  it is perfectly legal, and expected, for citizens to check the prosecutors by denying a conviction even if the prosecutors makes a case.  It is expressly the point of the jury, that the government must ultimately answer to private citizens.  If you ever are called to serve on a jury, know and expect to nullify the case. When you do, you are defending the constitution of the US against the prosecutors within who would violate the constitution.  Restore order!

Our economy is based on trillions in derivatives, not on productive capacity.  There is a tipping point when people realize there are no assets behind those derivatives, and there is not the productive capacity to support our country.  Then it will be escape to anarchy from the chaos.

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Never Let States Define Terms - Example 283,293,930: Money

You can see at the source where the malinformation is coming from, the FED:

A textbook description of money is usually just a recitation of its functions—it acts as a store of value, a medium of exchange, and a unit of account.

No. Money is not a unit of account.  By tacking that addenda to the definition, they can add all sorts of mischief.  They know they are up to no good, so they explain:

The "unit of account" function, in particular, gets little development in the textbooks and has generally not carried much weight in the academic literature on the theory of money. (There are a few exceptions, like this NBER working paper by Matthias Doepke and Martin Schneider.) But if people are going to communicate with one another about value, those communications are going to be most effective if done using some standardized metric—and that's where money comes in. As a "unit of account," our money is how we communicate about value. It can be a physical thing, like a particular commodity, or it can be an abstract concept, like the broad purchasing power of a medium of exchange.

Fie!  See how they shift meanings and purposes!  Prices quoted in money, money properly defined, give the signals actors in an economy need to reckon and make decisions.  Prices are necessary and sufficient.  Here the FED folks boldly name what is going on, and how come our economy is in such dire straights: they are ascribing to tallies the work of prices.

And that is the heart of the scam.

Mish has also reviewed this from another perspective.

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Selling Bulk Ingredients

On Jan 13, 2014, at 12:10 AM, J wrote:

The products we sell –bulk liquid chemicals- are very easy to substitute and replicate. As we are distributors we constantly look at products where there are not many competitors –generally speaking when there are not more than 3-4 producers worldwide; At this stage I am still wondering how we can achieve greater competitive advantage.

*** Two problems:

1. most of world trade in commodities is about avoiding taxes and laundering profits... people who can do that can beat you on price, and you are in a business that competes on price.

2. If Chinese traders want the business, they will always offer a lower price, no matter what.  

If you cannot win the price game, get out.***

For certain products we do have a very good position especially for (named company)  for which we are the exclusive distributor in Europe of the largest manufacturer worldwide for this product.

***No such thing as exclusives in int'l trade, no way anyone can control distribution of a fungible product.  Anyone can buy through straw men and re-export, re-label, whatever...  if there is profit to arbitrage, it will get arbitraged.***

We use Piers mainly to spot what manufacturer is selling which product and also to find new customers and get to know their product needs. It gives us a map of the market.

***And so is everyone else... so everyone is looking at the same info and coming up with a plan, probably the same plan...***

How can we compete on design as a distributor? This sector in Europe is very old fashioned and conservative but we could definitely innovate. We do not focus on commodities anymore where there is a high product substitution and a war on prices. We go for specialities which require more patience due to longer testing periods and approval processes for Pharma, Food and beverages industry.

What would you do in our case?

***I would "go for specialities which require more patience due to longer testing periods and approval processes for Pharma, Food and beverages industry."  Consultants always find the answer is already within the company they are assisting.

Shift from competing on price to competing on design.

This takes re-org, and obviously your company has figured out the profile they can serve...  compete on design...  find customer problems then crowdsource solutions paying a royalty to anyone worldwide who works up a solution...  then you are not only the best at what you do, but the only one who does it.  You are a price maker, not a price taker...

Ask your customers what they need that they are not getting....

You'll make more money handling less product.

Here is an example of commodities sold as designer items...

make sense?

John

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Lawlessness

From the West Virginia chemical spill:

"A lot of people are facing bad situations because of this," he said. "They're struggling. What I don't understand is how did this happen?"

Well, it happened like this.  For 800 years we had laws that were enforced that prevented these things.  Then came capitalism and the courts and legislatures began to defy natural laws and rule along might-makes-right lines.  Capitalism grew, as did pollution.

So then in the 1970s we got government agencies to regulate pollution.  But wait, if the state is lawless now, how will more state rules bring order and safety?

They did not obey the laws before, why would they obey new laws?  They don't!  It is all political theatre.

For a detailed history of how the courts and legislatures changed the rules to make things they way they are, read Horwitz on law:



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How IPR Militates Against USA Security

There is technology that is classified secret that does not see the lighjt of day for a while.  Those get stolen by spies.

Watching patent activity allows people to know what you capabilities are, and where you have constrained yourself in operating.

There are patents that limit what anyone else can do around the monopolized item.  Room to move is useful in defense.

There are "submarine patents" that keep inventors wary of proceeding, and slow down the innovation process.

USA's only unique aspect is freedom (and if only conceptual at this point).  Monopolies are the antithesis of freedom.  In the three ways above, we are constrained from having a creative, effective defensive response.

The best defensive weapon is one that does not yet exist.  It cannot be overcome, no one can overcome that which cannot yet be seen.

Give people freedom, and they will come up with the means to defend themselves.





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3D Printer - $200

A veteran toy buyer has come up with a 3D printer at $200.  More business than he can handle of course.

A 3D printer will speed things up, but not improve the quality of the idea.  You'll still need good designers to come up with the right look, and the 3D printer will have a prototype faster and cheaper. In itself it will not bring on more and better ideas, any more than the photocopy machine did.  We will still need people starting businesses based on customer feedback.

Checkout  another article on the co-working scene in Hong Kong.

In my book I talk about the accidental event where a Fedex Kinkos shared an open wall with a Starbuck's, which struck me as the ideal incubator.  Everything you need as far as support services are there... and you get a meeting table with coffee for $5.00.

Regular meetings with a co-hort is a good idea, but paying for a place to do so strikes me as too much.  I doubt these co-working places will continue as such.  They need to strike that balance where their services are worth more than their clients money.

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China Becomes World Trader Number One!

Kevin sends in this story on China:

For the first time in centuries China has overtaken the US as the world’s biggest trading nation, with total trade standing at $4.16 trillion in 2013.

The numbers are too big to verify, but I suspect it is true.  And about time, I should say1  China is the worlds largest country, and so they should be the alrgest in terms of trade.

And imagine that, a massive shift in world trade patterns and no world war necessary.  Let's keep it up.

Now if India can shake off the pointless restrictions it has in place inhibiting that country from making contributions commensurate with its genius and talent, then teh world would be an even better place.

All hail free markets!

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When Minimum Wage Goes to $15 an Hour

Say good-bye to fast food jobs...


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