Saturday, March 1, 2014

Hope and Change in Medicine

The people who voted for Obama were promised hope and change, but so far only rope and chains.  Romney/Obamacare was designed to fail, to usher in the end game and the end of good medicine in USA: single payer monopoly, just the thing for a minimum wage economy.

But good ideas are busting out:


Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


India & USA Trade

At a recent seminar I had an edifying conversation over a fruit juice lunch with a fellow from India, who was lamenting the widespread preference in India for what is modern to the detriment of what is good and true and beautiful in traditional Indian culture.  His idea was to do his part, and preserve the traditional spice blends and market those (and with a billion people, each preserving something, traditional India would be safe from extinction.)

For my part I lamented that to my mind, and trade statistics bear this out, India is not participating in the world economy commensurate with its size.  If India is 1/5th of the world population, it should be 1/5th of the economy.  I compared my experiences in trading with China and attempting to trade with India.  We agreed it was the fault of the British super-structure in place, whose colonial style is still the power structure in India, although changing.

When China liberalized on the Hong Kong model, first to 12, then 20 SEZs, India saw the result and copied it, but to a too limited degree.  The results were dramatic, but not revolutionary as in China.

Another time I was conversing at a seminar with a couple of fellows form India, and after a while one fellow pointed to the other and said, "In India, he could not talk to me, he's Brahmin and I am an untouchable."  Now for the life of me, I could not tell the difference.  And neither seemed bothered by this fact or status. "... and what is also strange is we both work for a Muslim."  He went on to explain what would not be in India is common in USA.  All bets are off if and when they get here.

What a good thing, what a vestige of what the USA was supposed to be, but is rather overwhelmed by the fascist system we have in place that is bringing USA down.  When it goes down, those vestiges will leave with the people who experienced them, and what is good and true and beautiful will grow somewhere else.  Here is a quick summary of where things went wrong:
There is one final choice: to say that Jefferson was great until 1809, but then he went goofy. That theory, however, would be very difficult to support. The older Jefferson became, the better he became.
There is another view, and that was Jefferson was good except for the eight years he was president.  It is not possible to take all that power and be good.  But we knew that.

In another conversation another time with another fellow from India, he was explaining "competing on design" was not going to work for people whose income was improving did not want a designer pyrex measuring cup, they wanted the original pyrex measuring cup.  Having what what they could not have until now was more important than having new.  This is why I say I know nothing about foreign markets, and always rely on the importers overseas to deal with that end of the game.

The good news is India will decide how India will change.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Friday, February 28, 2014

Important, If True

Exporters themselves do not worry about the paperwork, that is for Freight Forwarders, but if this reduces costs, then prices fall, then it contributes to the economic recovery:
Just last week President Barack Obama signed an executive order accelerating the process of getting government approval to export U.S.-made cargo. The goal is to create a new International Trade Data System eliminating some of the paperwork required in sending cargo abroad. In theory, such a system could speed the shipment of products overseas, cutting approval wait times to transport goods to minutes from days.
And this...
Small companies comprise the majority of U.S. exporters. Businesses with fewer than 500 employees accounted for 294,589 of 301,238 U.S. exporters in 2012, or about 97%, according to preliminary data released by the U.S. Census Bureau in December. Just over half were small manufacturers and wholesalers, and together they generated $460 billion in foreign trade, a $10 billion increase from the previous year, or about 34% of total U.S. exports, according to the data.
Yes, just so.

As costs drop with less regulation, prices will fall too, eventually.  All this deflation is very good news.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Drone Ocean Freighters?

Ocean freight is already a dirt cheap way to move things...  what if we cut operating expenses almost in half... by getting rid of the crews?
The computers would also be constantly analyzing operations data to improve efficiency and save money, he said. Cameras and sensors can already detect obstacles in the water better than the human eye.
Now, it only takes a crew of about 12 people to man 3000 TEU ship 24/7/365, so we are not talking about a lot of job loss, and these ships will still need to be "conducted" worldwide.  We would have is remote pilots manning ships carrying cargo.  As the article notes, piracy would rather disappear, since there would be no one to point a gun at, so security on ships would be unnecessary too.

The savings would be tremendous, and no doubt encourage us to lower costs on airlines (face it, the airline pilots today are simply hostages to safety, no one can actually fly these new jets) and then we can get to automobile travel, mag lev.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Thursday, February 27, 2014

Never Recovery, Only Escape to Anarchy

When states control prices, top or bottom, we do not have a free market.  Right now the powers that be are fighting economic recovery with everything they have.  Falling prices would signal economic recovery, so minimum prices are being put in place, to keep economic recover form occurring.  Republicans are particularly keen on this, for an economic recovery might harm the crony-capitalist system.

A sign in a Seattle store:


The $3.09.  This article makes a point I have been making all along, and that is as it gets as bad, people choose to escape from the chaos to anarchy:
Diocletian had the option of either inflating – minting increasingly worthless denarii, or to deflate – in the form of cutting government expenditures. He chose to inflate. He also chose to fix the prices of goods and services and suspend the freedom of the people to decide what the currency was actually worth. 
Nixon did this in August of 1971, it did not work.  It has gotten worse.  Starting a business is escaping the chaos into anarchy.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Design: The Body Follows the Mind

And Honda is reminding itself and the world.  An enjoyable two minutes on design...

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Laws Against Patent Trolls

Arrrggghh.. making laws making things worse...
“Patent trolls are companies that purchase patents and intimidate thousands of individuals and small businesses with the threat of a lawsuit,” said Sen. Jackie Winters, R-Salem, who sponsored the bill, which was introduced this session. “The aim is to extort cash from companies or individuals in order to make the threat of litigation go away.”
The solution is not to ban patent trolls, the solution is to get rid of the patent regime!  Patent trolls are freedoms friend...  they abuse the system, and in so doing expand disapproval thereof.  Leave patent trolls alone.
For example, Winters said, “A patent troll (recently) sent letters to construction businesses across Oregon demanding a $150 licensing fee for the normal process of using fans to reduce moisture at a construction site.”
Are you kidding?  I know plenty of people in construction.  If any one had received such a letter, they would reply, "Sure, come on by for your check, Tuesday morning, we'll be pouring cement.  Bring your lawyer."


Montesquieu said "Useless laws weaken the necessary laws."  We do not need anti-troll laws, and we do not need patent laws.  As long as the regime minions keep piling up useless laws, they are bringing themselves down.


Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Steen via Mish On China

China matters in world trade, and their shift from world trade to domestic balance will have an effect.  In the meantime, in USA we have:
The Bermuda Triangle of Economics is still in place: Slow growth, high unemployment and high stock market valuations kept in place by a policy where the 20% of the economy which is the listed companies and banks gets 95% of all credit and access to subsidies while the 80%, which creates 100% of all jobs, the SME’s [Small and Medium Enterprises] get less than 5% of credit and less than 1% of the political capital.
Let's break this down -

Slow growth, high unemployment and high stock market valuations are all the result of capitalism in action.  That has failed (since it it now big govt/big biz) we are now the fascist version of capitalism.

SMEs need no bank credit, let alone bank credit.  In a free market, of which we still saw vestiges a mere 30 years ago, vendor financing was still huge.  Every business along the line extending time to pay to the next in line, that value of the goods, at no interest (usury).  It was asset backed finance, not a loan, and in any event not at usury.

Coming off the semi-gold standard in '71 gave bankers a decade to experiment and between bank bailouts and a gaping loophole in accounting for standby letters of credit, banks learned a new trick: lending their credit instead of their money.

Since there is no rational limit to lending credit, the price of credit fell, its acceptance widened, and cheap and easy credit replaced the responsibility based vendor finance system.

This destruction of what is good was accepted for two reasons: the federal policy is get big or get out (fascism).  Since such credit must necessarily go through banks, taxing and tracking got easier, so we got more of it.

Now we do not need the political capital either.  We need to be left alone.  Rolling back stupid rules does not take our participation, just do it.  That 99% of political capital is devoted to making the rich richer and killing off small business in USA.

Another reason we do not need finance is it does not cost much to start-up a business, anyone can save that much themselves with a part time job, but these new crowdfunding sites are a re-emergence of what once was.  Of course the Feds are effectively destroying this, and there is a time-bomb in every successful effort: income tax.  Few people realize that they must give 1/3rd of what they raise to Uncle Sam.  Surprise!  We've seen this before, when in the dot com boom people whose stock options rose and fell found out they had a debilitating tax bill.

What does this relentless scorched earth federal policy toward small business mean?  There is a woeful shortage of small business in USA, a huge detriment to our economy to have it thus.  On the other hand, what happens to the value of that which there is so little?

It goes up.

If you have a nice 401K or whatever, it will be perhaps 1/2 its value by the end of this year.  Now, I am not a financial advisor, and no one would take this advice if I was, but here goes -

Take out 1/2 of your IRA, 401K or whatever, take the tax hits, and use it to start a small business.  What you left in, invest in Rydex double short mutual funds.  By the end of the year, your 401K will be where it is today when everyone else has lost 1/2 value, and you will also have a very valuable small business you own.

I actually took this advice myself, back before 2008, when i could see at some point our banking system would fail.  I got the bet right, but right before the pay off, Chris Cox, head of the SEC outlawed shorting financial stocks.  That's what I get for thinking the Feds play fair.  And fair warning, my good advice on investments, even when right, have proven wrong.  but let's see by year's end, what this advice may yield.

Of course, more to the point, those with nothing, leveraging what little you have is best where what you  create will be of exponential value: a small business in a regime that is ordered to the destruction of small business.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Tuesday, February 25, 2014

MtGox Fail

Since I have an interest in money and credit and so on with a biz blog, I've been commenting on bitcoins.  Today a central source of bitcoins has gone haywire, mtgox.com  Mish spotted it early, and offers sober assessments.

I think people who approach business as investors, business as a means to rent-seeking, tend to fall for these scams. Certainly with the equities bubble in play right now, countless of "investors" (seeking rents) are about to experience condign punishment.

I was reading a comprehensive summary on theories of entrepreneurship, risks and profit (opens as a .pdf) which is an excellent review of the thinking of many leading lights.  What is mystifying is how those very leading lights get some aspect of it so wrong:

Where some writers believe entrepreneurs ignore risk, almost all assume risk is central.

All writers assume profits are the motivation in entrepreneurship, and the,

They disagree on the definition of profits.

Now it is all Austrian economics, so it is all pretty good, but if you are actually in the trenches, not an economist studying or someone rent-seeking by speculative investment, one better not take these writers too much to heart.

By sticking to the radical (root) definitions, one can avoid the problems, and sidestep popular scams.  Bitcoins is shakey today, and who knows when it will go down, but down it will go, because it is not what it claims to be, but it is what people want it to be, money for nothing.

(Start at the 2 min mark)


Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Monday, February 24, 2014

Bookstore Survivability

John,

Regarding the issue that most retail sales are happening offline in real stores (supposedly internet sales are only like 5 % or so), I cannot avoid thinking that book sales (both printed books and ebooks) are different. There seem to be constant reports about commerce taking over in the media. Maybe the retail market is still adjusting to the advent of the internet (even though it's been about 20 years). Could the sales of other products be affected by the internet? Maybe it's just taking longer for the internet to change retail commerce?

see this article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/20/business/media/james-patterson-giving-cash-to-bookstores.html?hpw&rref=books&_r=0


Hey Anonymous...

Thanks for being the #1 poster on my blog.

There is something different about the brick & mortar book business, and that is it has a model that needs to die.  Amazon killed off the fake bookstores, Barnes & Noble, Crown Books, Borders, which were really just financial services companies, not booksellers (they made their money off usury, not books sales.)

The model that needs to die is that of all USA industries, booksellers can return products (books) they do not sell.  This started in the great depression, where most of what is bad in USA was instituted.

Once booksellers could send back books they did not sell, then the business model changed to where a bookseller did not care what was on the shelves, just stack up the bestseller junk which is 20% of the business, and maintain the classics (MacBeth, the Iliad, etc) which is 80% of the business, and then sit back and manage mistakes by shipping them back.  Interesting or new authors need no apply.

Powells in Portland discovered (and I happen to think inspired Bezos at Amazon) the tactic of selling used copies and new copies side by side.  They are thriving.

And incidentally, neither of my books would ever be carried in a brick and mortar store without some direct association with me (a college bookstore carrying my book when I also teach at the college).  On the other hand, I've had a book on Amazon for over a decade.  See the Long Tail for what is going on there.
Michael Pietsch, the chief executive of Hachette Book Group, said that while some have prospered, there has been “a cataclysmic loss in the number of independent bookstores” over the last two to three decades. “The stores that have weathered the significant downturn have had very good years recently,” Mr. Pietsch said. “But there are many stores that have not had that success.”
Publishers went after the "blockbuster" books.  The printed massive amounts of each to stack in all stores and then take back what did not sell.  Fully 50% of the bestseller books are returned to be shredded.  Yes, that million copy best seller is ultimate only a half million copies, and actual printed copies come back to be shredded by recyclers.  Why would anyone lament the end of this terrible system?

Those bookstores still standing have a staff that cares about books, and an ambience catering to people who love to read.  That staff in effect curates books.  if booksellers could no longer return books they did not sell, not only would it help the ecology, it would widen access to audiences from bookstores.  If there were 10,000 bookstores in USA, then maybe there would be 200 in which a clerk who was expert on business might be recommending my book, and then it would sell in stores.  If each sold a copy a month, I'd have a stream of $2000 net a month from that alone.
And though many communities remain loyal to their shops, and the American Booksellers Association says its membership has recently grown, the online discounters have wreaked havoc on the independent bookseller’s business model.
If your model is the execrable 50% return model. The destruction of the old model is not over.  Some publishers (like me) have no return policies.  Right now it kills any sales.   Eventually those businesses that depend on the "no-effort" model of bookselling will die out due to competition from Amazon.  Amazon has well and truly killed off Crown, B&N and Borders, and hooray for that.  Good riddance!  I am happy to see the small independents who are organized around the "we can always send it back" die out.  More business for real book lovers.

The article you cited is a distress call from someone who made his money in the old system, Patterson.  We all love a system that works for us.  And what was his first plan?  A government bailout of book stores?!  Wow.  But then people who make money off degenerate systems do not want the gravy train to end.
Last year, Mr. Patterson placed full-page ads in The New York Times Book Review and Publishers Weekly arguing that the federal government’s financial support of troubled industries like Wall Street and the automobile sector should extend to the bookstore business. Since that appears to be a pipe dream, Mr. Patterson decided to create his own bailout fund as part of his mission to promote literature, especially for children.
Now, to Patterson's credit, when the government did not step in, he stepped in and put his money where is mouth is.  Bravo!
He began his project last year by getting the word to store owners that he was willing to begin writing them checks, which will range from $2,000 to $15,000, according to a spokeswoman for Mr. Patterson.
But wait...
The current health of independent bookstores is mixed. While some have benefited from the disappearance of the Borders chain in 2011 and a shrinking Barnes & Noble, the stores have been hit especially hard with consumers switching from paper copies to e-books.
Two things, probably 10% of my net comes from ebooks sales, but I believe very few of the people buying the ebooks are reading the ebooks.  In any event, in time the independent bookstores will come up with a open-source kindle that allows customers to buy any ebook with a cut going to their favorite bookshop.  An affinity kindle.

It has never occurred to me until now to pitch another book I wrote and sells on amazon, Perish Your Publisher.  It is a study on how to develop a teaching and writing and publishing combination as a sideline or full time occupation.  i brought what I learned from small biz int'l trade to publishing and figured out how to get paid for my time spent thinking.   (I wish what I thought brought in more money, but the bible says you have to be happy with your portion.)  Here is that book:

Perish Your Publisher

(Odd... the server image code no longer works with googleblogs... hmmm...)

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Flu Vaccine Hoax

i've blogged on this before regarding flu, and last weekend the news in SF was blaming measles cases on people who refuse vaccines.   There is no possible correlation between the people who have measles and the people who are non-vaccinators, but that does not stop the rent-seeking medical establishment and their media handmaidens from pursuing free thinkers.

An assertion I make earlier is we can caccintate all we want, and be free maybe form a given set of a dozen or so diseases, but when war breaks out, there are stil some 300 billion other diseases waiting to step in on compromised immune systems.
"We know definitively that it isn't polio," Van Haren added, noting that all had been vaccinated against that disease.
Glaser wouldn't provide the number of illnesses. Van Haren said he was aware of around 20.
She urged doctors to report new cases of acute paralysis so that investigators can try to figure out a possible cause.
And if the State did not force medical records secret, independent researchers would track down the etiology and spread of the disease.  We'd have answers fast.  Depending on the State actors means the greater their failure, the bigger their next budget.

When this system fails, this will all be important to remember;  keep a strict wall of separation between health and state.


Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Sunday, February 23, 2014

Colloquium on Finding Market


On Feb 23, 2014, at 6:59 PM, A F wrote:
I have knowledge of wellness products. Must these products be very unique? …and how do you determine uniqueness?
***If and when a critical mass of customers, defined as enough to warrant developing samples, have said your idea is good and does not otherwise exist.***
A friend of mine is a naturopath and has his own company with access to make a special branding for me. This product is for people with high cortisol which is literally everybody in the country due to stress. There are also products with digestive enzymes and probiotics. 
***OK, you hear your motivation..? "everyone needs this, I can make a killing..."  that is what they teach in schools and does not work... in the real world what works is finding joy in working on a solution to a problem that causes you pain.  If you do not have all parts, then it will not work... this is about lifestyle not about making money.  The money will follow, but it is not important.***
I also have knowledge with gluten-free and grain free types of products and would eventually like to develop grain free flours, if there seems to be a demand.
My interest would be to export these types of products.
***A knowledge thereof, or a suffering which is alleviated by the joy of working on the problem?*** 
Probably the first step is to look into these nutritional products and see what kind of demand there is which would likely be East Asia and ???
*** There it is again... he orientation to making money and not solving a problem... being in business is about being happy, not about making money, the joy in working on a solution to a problem that causes you (and others) to suffer.  I know the bankers have had 100 years to tell people otherwise, and control school textbooks on business, but time to shift to what works...***
I also have identified some vinegar blends that really are quite tasty and I think would have great appeal.
*** Our opinions never matter...   only customer opinions matter...***
Questions:
What would be the next step?
***Experience a problem that causes you to suffer for which working on the solution gives you joy.***
I should see what kind of demand has been reported on these products?
***Never!  Research of that kind tells you only what is happening now, new business needs new customers.  You should talk to people who buy such items, and find out if what you have is new and needed.***
Are nutrients, enzymes, targeted organ/problem nutritionals a desirable item to export?
***Only people who buy such things can answer that question.***
I would imagine country labeling/language would be an issue? Or is it an issue?
***Not for you.  If a country demands labelling requirements for its imports, too bad for the citizens of that country.  It is no skin off your back that their importers have to add that cost onto imported products and jack up the price to their customers.  Such requirements will be the customers problem, not yours.

John

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


They Wait Until It is Over

Here is a functionary on his way out NOW telling us how it is...  some of us already knew, but, here you go...

We are faced with two disagreeable implications. First, that the Deep State is so heavily entrenched, so well protected by surveillance, firepower, money and its ability to co-opt resistance that it is almost impervious to change. Second, that just as in so many previous empires, the Deep State is populated with those whose instinctive reaction to the failure of their policies is to double down on those very policies in the future. Iraq was a failure briefly camouflaged by the wholly propagandistic success of the so-called surge; this legerdemain allowed for the surge in Afghanistan, which equally came to naught. Undeterred by that failure, the functionaries of the Deep State plunged into Libya; the smoking rubble of the Benghazi consulate, rather than discouraging further misadventure, seemed merely to incite the itch to bomb Syria. Will the Deep State ride on the back of the American people from failure to failure until the country itself, despite its huge reserves of human and material capital, is slowly exhausted? The dusty road of empire is strewn with the bones of former great powers that exhausted themselves in like manner.

Read the whole essay here....

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.