Saturday, March 22, 2014

Gun Vending Machines

As a kid my hoodlum friends and I would frequent cigarette machines in office building lobbies and such to score a stash.  I am not kidding, cigarette machines were everywhere. Those are outlawed now.  So I am always keen on what we see in product dispensing machines.  I've already blogged iPods. A favorite of mine?  Gun vending machines, just the thing after deplaning at ORD, EWR, LAX or MIA... only takes gold coins, naturally -

http://www.toxel.com/inspiration/2008/07/11/20-brilliant-advertising-ideas/
What else in in machines today?  Pizza.  Bicycles.  Ganja. Check it out...

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Appreciating Competition in Music

Is it cool?  Is it cool? Bros Johnson wrote some of Michael Jackson's best stuff...  we compete on design, and even in music, even the best bring in designers...



Not this, but since you're listening to funk, next some disco...

 

So Diana Ross had to compete...  "I can do better than that..."



 Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Friday, March 21, 2014

New Game & Toys Business Start-up

A past participant in a San Francisco seminar and his wife, economists both, ran with the program to advance their passion for games that teach creativity to kids... Huffpo likes it, giving it a #2 out of the top five STEM toys (category in the industry that teaches Science, Technology, Engineering and Math).
2. Nene Imagination Puzzles are described as "puzzles without borders" because there is not one right way to put them together. Their Animal & Friends sets are a great choice to get girls (and boys) interested in problem solving and logical thinking in a very accessible way at about age four on up. Tiles of Infinity puzzles are for kids a little older (as well as adults) and provide two simple shapes that can be put together to create a nearly endless number of patterns.
Here is their website.

Here is a video of their project:



Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


ExImGenius.com

Doing some research I came across an outfit that seems to be giving away what panjiva.com, importgenius.com, PIERS.com, and zepol.com are selling.  Now keep in mind the raw data all of these copanies use costs only $25,200 per year, and they slice and dice it to turn it into millions in revenue.

So what an Indian company seems to be doing is giving the info away, but working on a ad-revenue model.  Not sure how long they have been around, but their home page needs tidying up...

Get a mamoth data base of business links
Meet the genius of the export business. Lorem ipsum. dolor to dadNow. It is the main option for all the Meet the genius of the export business. Lorem ipsum. dolor to dadNow. It is the main option for all the
Ahem. " for all the ..."  What? That's it.  But you can look up importers (and exporters) by commodity, say here an asparagus importer in Florida...

http://www.importersinusa.com/company/ayco-farms-inc/144100.php

But what is interesting is this entry adds the temp and vent specs for a shipment...
Product Description :-Fresh Asparagus Hts 0709200000 Temperature: 1 C Ventilation: Closed Humidity: Off Controlled Atmosphere Freight Prepaid
I believe that is on the bill of lading too, and in any event it is valuable info for a start-up.  But marginally valuable since your Freight Forwarder already knows all this info, so these reports are best for finding names of freight forwarders, not buyers or sellers.

Start-ups are in the business of discovering new business...  this is where we go to find a direction to look...  to use panjiva or importgenius to find business to cannibalize and in essence lower prices is fine, but that is big biz work, not small biz or start-up work...

The key thing is to develop your own trade data, so you have a report that no one else on earth has...  the gold medal in olympics is won by 2/10ths of a second...  a small advantage puts you on top...

The data you have that no one else on earth has is news...  when approaching both suppliers and buyers, you argue they should be getting into this, see, it is growing (which they may know) and these prices (which they may also know) but for sure they do not have the trend data you show...  thus you have paid some dues, and may be able to do some small starting work for them...

I teach all of this in my classes, how to save time and money going straight at the customers with what they should buy and why.  The feedback on the classes is high, so the schools keep inviting me back.  


Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Your Tax Dollars at the EPA

You can complain all you like about regs killing business, especially designed to kill small business, because the reg makers simply will never listen.  Like the old monopoly phone company, "we don't care, we don't have to."
“Rather than recruit someone with the requisite experience, Brenner sought out Beale in what appears to be a decision based solely on their personal friendship rather than any experience or credentials,” said conclusions of the report by Republicans on the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee.
The Republicans want good government?  So when yet another scamster is exposed, we are told this person, the highest paid, really had no effect...
“The standards followed the routine open, transparent and public process, providing opportunities for public and interagency review and comment prior to their finalization.”
Republican investigators said Beale “took ownership” of the EPA 1997 national air quality standards, though much of the underlying data remain secret.
So a process can be transparent while the rationale is secret?  Never mind, nothing will change. The problem is people actually have to live under these regulations.  You cannot get clean air by regulation. You get it by law.  The automobile is an invention.  It can be improved to be zero emission.  It can be replaced with mag lev.  Both would occur if property rights were enforced, with its bundle of rights.  Instead we get an agency where pollution is codified and made permanent.  Only anarchists can keep the air clean.

Why throw the guy in jail?  Set up a truth commission, and let him name names and tell tales, and as long as he tells all he'll be free.  In time, so many people will cross-rat out each other that we'll all have a better idea of reality.  Throwing people in jail shuts them up.   After losing so much money on some one, why throw good money after bad.  Let's 'em sing.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Thursday, March 20, 2014

Snowden on IPR

Oooops!  From a TED Talk...
Intellectual property is the foundation of our economy. If we put that at risk with weak security, we are going to be paying for it for years.
Well, he can't be right on everything...  if you want security, you open source everything.  For a fellow who is the target of a violent regime, it is odd he implicitly supports a regime of violence, IPR.

He sure speaks as if he is still part of the intelligence community, and would like to continue in that line of work.   Maybe he never left, maybe he just wants it back under the rule of law.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Will You Be Busted Next?

David Stockman got taken to the woodshed for truth-telling about the horrors of Reaganomics, but took his beating and kept telling the truth.  He today quotes -
...Seth Klarman. The latter is proprietor of the $27 billion Baupost Fund and can fairly be described as one of the greatest hedge fund managers ever. He is also so eminently sensible that he recently returned several billions to his investors—owing to a dearth of reasonable investment opportunities.
Stockman goes on to talk about the coming bust.

OK... so say you are sitting pretty on your 401K, IRA, whatever.  And have a good job.  But then the equities market busts.

1. Your 401k or retirement plan takes a 50-60% hit.

2. You lose you false-economy job.

3. Housing prices drop and you are upside down.

We cannot have economic recovery without the bubble bursting, so the above three are absolutely necessary.  And if and when it occurs, it is likely you are well connected in a false-economy industry, and rather unemployable.  Look at what happened in 2008.  Next time it will be, what, now?  Eight times worse?

Start a company.  Anything.  You don't need money, you need customers.  Take what time you've got left to get going.  Read the article by Stockman, puts much in perspective.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Wednesday, March 19, 2014

New Crimean Currency

Who says Crimea doesn't pay?  They now have their own coins!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-19/crimea-wastes-no-time-mints-new-coinage-already

A couple of things:

1. I can read enough Russian to see that coins says "Russian Federal Republic of Crimea."  So which is it, an independent country, or a province of Russia?  Or under Putin, is Russia going to get the USA experiment right?  Currency is a kind of sovereign-ish thing to do.  Is this another independent country with Russia in the name, like Belorus (white Russia).

2. Coins like that are not set up over night....  this was planned a while back.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Jimmy Carter - Still USA's Greatest President

So Jimmy Carter's Justice Department looked at addressing some of the problems of IPR...
Hidden in this story, however, is the key fact that demolishes the argument in favor of software patents: "the mid-90s." Before that, software patents were rare or nonexistent. And guess what: The era from 1950 through 1995 featured one of the most innovative and fruitful tech explosions in history. Billions of lines of software were produced, the world was transformed, and it was all done without patent protection.
But it was Reagan who got the new laws passed.  Even Thos. Jefferson, USA's #2 greatest president, got things wrong in his time, but in this case, just as Reagan got the credit for the benefits of Carter initiatives, it was Reagan who advanced the harm of patents for software.

All hail Jimmy Carter!

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Trade Shows and Booths

Here is the PR release, in part, from the ExpoWest Organic Food Show last week:
The event grew five percent percent bringing together over 67,000 industry members, more than 2,600 exhibiting companies and the most first-time exhibitors in the event’s history. From food and beverage to supplements and beauty to household and pet products, the event provided a window into the many categories driving the growth of the global natural products industry.
...
With 635 first-time exhibitors at the event, there is tremendous energy, innovation and funding surrounding food entrepreneurs today. Many Natural Products Expo West first-time exhibitors are ‘home cooks,’ passionate moms and nutrition-focused athletes who have launched their own products.
...
Labeling Transparency: Consumers are asking for transparency with regard to food/product labels, claims and certifications, including non-GMO and organic.
Food tribes: The growing gluten-free, vegan, paleo and other special diet communities are fueling the healthy eating movement and changing the way people view food and community.
People finding problems they experience and coming up with solutions, and finding joy in doing so.  This is all very good.  Of those 635 new businesses, I would be keen for them to understand how to work a show before, during and after the event.  The show needs to be an order-writing show.  Whole lotta competition out there, and small advantages translate into huge results.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Shostak on Inflation

Frank Shostak is a particularly good explainer of matters economic, and he explains inflation policy recommendations here.  But like so many Austrians who know what they are talking about, he gets the term money wrong from time to time.
On the contrary the holders of newly printed money who don’t produce any real wealth will weaken the ability of wealth generators to produce wealth by diverting to themselves bread and shoes thereby leaving less real wealth to fund the maintenance and the expansion of the infrastructure.
If it can be newly printed, it ain't money.  Getting back to Mish on deflation, Shostak as well demonstrates there is nothing on the other side of these investments.  There is no way to calculate how bad things are until people realize there is no asset to match most of what is called "money" owed.

At a party last night a fellow said in passing of my friend who just drew 16 years for financial shenanigans, in which a supposed $20 million loss was taken, "there is $20 million out there somewhere."  What?  No there isn't.  Nobody lost $20 million because no one ever had it to begin with.  Investors came to the financial advisor with tallies, promises to be paid in money, hoping to multiply the tallies and then have more asset-less backed credit buying power.  Problem is, we have mostly a false economy, in which it is not possible to ever generate the money necessary to cover all of the promises.  instead of factories making toasters, America's pensions are strewn over the battle fields of the Middle East, and tucked away in the foreign accounts of top level USA officials.

The problem with the recommendations being made by the Fed potentates is they will work.  But they are designed to help only and extremely few people, with countless patsies lining up to be taken, and others forced to participate by putting money in IRAs and 401ks to escape the chaos of our tax code.

If and when the system comes down, we'll need a strict separation of money (and credit) and the state.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Putin Brilliant - Newly Independent Crimea

A few weeks ago I wondered wistfully if the Crimea might become and independent state and a new Hong Kong:
Too late, a snap election has the Crimeans voting themselves back into Russia after 50 years.  Putin should have had them vote themselves into independence, which would have confounded his opponents.
Now comes this:
President Vladimir Putin has signed an order that Russia recognizes Crimea as a sovereign and independent state. The Autonomous Republic of Crimea held a referendum on Sunday with over 96% voting for integration into Russia.
The Western Press is not even mentioning the formation of this new country.

So Putin has made the Crimea independent, so will it become a new Hong Kong?  In any event, USA leadership is strictly 4th rate in the world, and there is no one on the back benches that can improve our standing.  Too bad.  Putin is a brilliant world leader.  I am embarrassed for the United States.  We have first stringers too, but there is no way they will step up when we have a surveillance state, and we need a surveillance state to maintain fascism and foreign occupation.  Bring the troops home now, and let's make trade, not war.

I wonder which will be the first country (after Russia) to recognize the new country of Crimea?

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Insuring Food Exports

My research tells me Freight Forwarders who handle fresh food (perishable) exports will insure it at approximately .70 per hundred value with the claims ratio on full containers is about 1 in 400 or .25%.  this sounds about right since insurance companies take in 3 and pay out one.  Now, since we work MOQ FOB, we are not figuring this into our prices we are charging, but it is good to know the buyers will be offered insurance for loss on fresh food exports.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Savings Glut Nonsense

Mish is the only, as far as I know, Austrian-informed economist who keeps his definition on money accurate and therefore understands how ersatz credit is wreaking havoc on the economy....
None of the above remotely has anything to do with a "savings glut". There was no "savings glut" in 1933 and there sure isn't one today. 
Ironically, it was the explosion of debt, not the lack of savings that fueled the Great Depression and the Global Financial crisis. Margin debt and speculation soared in the late 1920s and is at an all-time high again now.
Only by confusing the expansion of credit and money printed out of thin air with savings, can one propose a "savings glut" thesis. 
Realistically, debt does not equal savings and credit is not the same as money. To suggest, as Pettis does, that "excess thrift is a much more serious problem than insufficient thrift" is ridiculous.
I recommend the whole article.  Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Venice to Secede?

Venice was one of the great Renaissance City States, like Hong Kong is today.  It is still wealthy, and the people appear to be tired of socialism.

We have to fight for it [independence],” Giovanni Dalla Valle, head of the Veneto independence movement, told RT. “We will do it in a peaceful, diplomatic way. We do strongly believe that when the majority wants to be independent there is nothing they [the Italian government] can do.
Veneto independence activists say they have been inspired by secession movements in Scotland and Catalonia.

So will anyone object?  Italy is less than 100 years old, and Venice was a City State for far longer.  No doubt these places will become new Singapores, where peace and prosperity reign.  USA was supposed to be 13 (now 50 countries) allied, but that went wrong.

We see from Crimea, the USA political class does not like independence moves.  Wonder if we can have a Hong Kong in USA.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Monday, March 17, 2014

Housing Prices In USA

David Stockman manages to look at the right things in his analysis, and gives a tour de force on the current housing price bubble.
So the miraculous recovery of housing prices in these markets is not all that. Its another housing bubble—this one based on an institutional form of sub-prime rather than dodgy retail mortgages. Specifically, the meth labs of Wall Street have already concocted a new variant of toxic waste in the form of securitized rents. Stated differently, they are now slicing and dicing rental income streams based on model assumptions about average occupancy, tenant turn-over, rental rate increases, repair costs and much else. All of it is untested and probably unknowable since this industry—detached home rentals— was only born yesterday.
He is not calling a bust yet, but he unfortunately asserts that mostly housing price increases are a good thing.

Well, no.  First, if prices of anything is not generally falling always, then there is something wrong.  what is wrong is usually government policy which benefits some and harms other by causes prices to rise.  Rising prices are never a good thing in an economy, except when there is some disaster and players begin to gouge to signal where and when and to what degree scarcity is occurring, so assets can be reallocated where they are most badly needed.

When we have a housing price bust, the vast majority of Americans will be benefitted.

And note, this entire problem is again created by usury, and the added tactic of lending credit not money.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


World Trade Trade Shows

You need customers to start a business, that is the most important thing in business, and the hardest thing is getting your product or service right.

The best way to come up with the product or service, is the passion/joy process I've laid out earlier.

I've made clear many times it is disadvantageous to try to begin based on perceived "hot markets" or as Drucker warns, organize around resources.  For these reasons I caution against anyone visiting a trade show before they have their product decided, for if not, you will be dazzled by some hot item and decide that you should do that too.  And then you fail.

But trade shows are critical to the process of international trade.  Last week I assisted a start-up at a USA trade show gain 14 customers from overseas, using the MOQ FOB tactic.  The booth cost her $6000.

Independent sales reps promote your item in their booths at no cost to you.  Say the commission you pay is 5% of sales, then 100% of what you pay them is that commission.  They may have a dozen lines in that one booth.  They are keen on writing orders, say $50,000 per vendor, $600,000 gross, and their 5% is $30,000 gross to them, less booth costs, etc.  So reps are one tactic for getting into expensive shows.

Another tactic is to join others in getting a booth, and splitting the costs, but a rep is a better idea because they can serve the market after you go back home.

If and when you know what you are going to sell, then going to a trade show for that product may be instructive in a general way.  Of course, as soon as you know what you will be selling, you should be focussing on getting the samples and costing and pricing and then of course selling.  So the first trade show you visit ought not be only instructive, but you ought to have at least lined up meetings to meet buyers.

Show management never wants people to visit and do business without taking a booth.  But start-ups may need to do just that.  The shows lost no revenue in such a scenario, because such newbies were not a customer anyway.  Yet, if one gets going by meeting buyers at a show, one may indeed become a booth-holder at some time.

Anyone who can afford to have a booth, but does not, is being foolish.   A booth allows one to conveniently sell new items to old customers, and old items to new customers.  I saves time and money for the vendor and the customers, who can conduct massive amounts of business in a few days.  But this assumes one has collected a critical mass of customers to warrant a booth.  I reject the idea of getting a booth to start-up a business, or to gain "trade leads."  Booths are for writing sales orders.  If and when you can reliably predict orders written will be 8 - 10 times the cost of the show,  then a booth is a good idea.  Until then, you are doing laser marketing.

Having said all that, you might even target a given show, once you know your product, and visit the show as neither buyer nor exhibitor (almost all shows have guest passes for people thinking of getting a booth).  You'll be obliged to eschew deal-making as a guest, but there is nothing to keep you from having already made appointments to meet with people at the show (in the coffee shop?) or "back at the hotel lobby."

Now as I started out saying, in USA there is plenty of world trade going on at trade shows.  The good people at the HKTDC.com pointed out there is far more going on at their shows in Hong Kong.  Just about every category you can think of, Hong Kong has a trade show.  And what I observe is young people from all over the world, starting businesses, flock to those shows.  Expect synergies.

Say your product is jewelry, and the premier jewelry show is held in Vegas, well the largest in the world is held in Hong Kong.  If you plan to enter international trade, which is better, meeting some foreigners in Vegas, or only foreigners in Hong Kong?   USA will tend toward more established, I believe, since USA can be a challenge to visit, as opposed to Hong Kong which is wide open to business.  Whether buying or selling, having settled on your product and done your research, what show should you target as a beginner?  Well, one of those Hong Kong shows would be my advice.

But but but, that is so exotic, and expensive..?  well...  no, I can do food and lodging in Hong Kong cheaper than New York  or LA (or Vegas) , although a ticket will be probably 2-3 times the cost.  Figure USA West Coast to Hong Kong just under $1000, and then work Hong Kong very comfortably for $100 a day, hotel, food, transport.  Ten days in Hong Kong could be the best $2000 seminar you ever took.

Here is a throw-away video on Hong Kong I made a while back, which might give you some sense of how it is...




Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Sunday, March 16, 2014

Optimistic About the Future

Back in LA this weekend, running back and forth along the I 10 axis to Palm Springs, visiting and meetings, etc.  A question come up regularly, from young and old:  Am I optimistic?

Yes, I am optimistic the system is coming down.  Well, I am optimistic the system is down, it has failed, and now it is just a matter of time as people realize they are living in a false economy and the goodies stop.

I was engaged in a multi-generational discussion of the economy in Palm Desert, where no doubt in the 1960s the exact same conversations went on around the pool, to the same tinkling of ice in cocktails.  But the difference was all generations agreed, it's over.

And it should be over, the bailouts, the wars, the fascism (big biz and big govt being one).  In the 60s there was some hope for "conservatism" since there was some check on the State.  But Nixon took USA off the gold standard, to pay for the Vietnam war.  And that brought in inflation, and the economic downturn of the late 1970s, and then the discovery that Uncle Sam would bail out failed management, with the Chrysler debacle, large business and bankers realized they could structure matters in a way to keep the profits and socialize the losses (make the taxpayers take any losses.)

The only think left was how to finance any and everything.  It is arcane, and you'd have to know letters of credit to understand it, but the trick was for banks to lend credit not money.  Since standby letter of credit obligation exposure is off books and need not be footnoted in the financials, there was no end to what could be backed by ersatz credit.  It started at the top, shopping malls and nuclear power plants, and then worked it's way down to people financing any crazy idea.  A problem people ignore is how cheap credit leads to malinvestment not only in overinvestment, but in misallocation.  False economies emerge, and that is where we are today.

The false economy is so extended that there is really no way of backing out.  We farmed out making sewing machines so our factories could make missile parts.  We turned family farms into weapons of mass destruction.  We destroyed medicine and have a generation of social workers, not scientists, tending to ailments.  Education has gone downhill as costs have risen.  Any innovation or initiative is crushed, like ridesharing and crowdfunding.  how do we back out?

Problem is, the powers that be want a violent denouement, for this changes the topic and absolves themselves, like Nero letting Rome burn.  There is no role for the State to play, not politicians, lawyers, cops or soldiers.

We got here lending credit at usury.  People say I just don't understand PVT, time preference, and risk premium, all reasonable things.  What if I do understand it, and still disagree?  Aggregating capital lent at interest for projects can do grand things, like great walls and pyramids.  But the practice is neither necessary not sufficient for peace and prosperity, and my critics ignore that the practice does harm, as in  precipitating the current crisis.

The argument made for usury (mis-identified as interest) is akin to saying rape is largely like married sex.  In both instances the actions can be the same, and many of the biological benefits, quite naturally, obtain.  Further, some of those are even conducive to good feelings.  Can't I recognize this?

Sure I can, but can't the advocate of usury notice the harm done in the process, as it is in rape?  Apparently not.  We all love a system we think will benefit us.

There are ways and means and patterns and practices to arrive at peace and justice without usury, just as there can be love without rape.  If you can maintain economics and sex are value-neutral, then sure, the philosophy works.  But economics is not value-neutral, contrary to what most economists insist.

It was very different when there were no credit cards, and people ran up usury-free debt at places they did their trade, and settled up once a month.  Not even money involved.  Between the carrot of easy credit inveigling itself in community cohesion, and the stick of tax reporting, we atomized and then were recollectivized into a welfare/warfare state.  Minimum wage and single payer are now our national purpose, at least for 99% of us.

Very quickly, since there was no rational limit to credit, we had more risky business, more bailouts, more war.

Starting a business is to fight the powers that be.  It requires atomic level relationships, and a reconnecting the comity we once had, before the banks could lend credit at usury.  Crowdfunding and self-finance, maybe even vendor financing, at no usury, is to rebuild the country.  It will make for a recovery.  Deregulation of something, anything would help, so maybe there is a role for the State, if going away is a role.

Happily my opinion does not matter.  There is no preparation for what is to come, because when and what cannot be predicted.  Business is great training for being flexible and cooperative, probably assets in a fix.

When it falls down, the state will be ineffective.  I am optimistic about that. The banks won't work, but who cares?  We can go back to a mere 50 years ago, where your relationship in your community is what mattered, and people settled up once a month, and neither the usurer nor the taxman had any part of it.

The problem if the state goes down, who will be the cops?  You.  Are you ready for that?

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.