This Trade Show is Dope

Now that marijuana is legal in over 20 states, dope-related trade shows were inevitable.

The mood was light, but for many in the room, the gathering was serious business. Marijuana is now legal in some form in more than 20 states, and next year, New York will join the list, with the state’s first medical marijuana dispensaries scheduled to open in January. Entrepreneurs in a wide range of industries see a rare window of opportunity. About 2,000 attendees, many in suits and ties, came to the show to network and to check out new products.

It is a mistake to legalize marijuana.  It is necessary and sufficient to merely decriminalize it.  We only need a separation of dope and state.

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Free Trade Agreements

The corporation that is known as the USA is defunct, and it is now just a matter of stealing what is not nailed down.  Who knows what will replace the USA on these lands, but what ended us was "get big or get out" a Republican anthem, which coordinated with the Democrat welfare state.

The republicans passed Romney/Obamacare without reading it, and its purpose, get big or get out is in full bloom, with "health care providers" merging into massive entities.

The five largest commercial health insurers in the U.S. have contracted merger fever, or maybe typhoid. UnitedHealth ischasing Cigna and even Aetna; Humana has put itself on the block; and Anthem is trying to pair off with Cigna, which is thinking about buying Humana. If the logic of ObamaCare prevails, this exercise will conclude with all five fusing into one monster conglomerate.

Now it is the Democrats turn to the the Republicans a solid, by passing the TPP/TPAT, whatever "free trade" agreements, without reading it either.  Who cares?  They all know it is about stealing, and they know they will receive the stolen goods,  Who cares about the means?

We vote against wars, we get them anyway.  We vote against domed stadiums, we get them anyway.  We vote against bailouts, we get them anyway.

What will replace what we have?  Necessarily it will not come through political action.   The politicians have nothing to bring to the table, they are present only for what they can take away.  God forbid it come through violence, in spite of how hard government is working to foment violence (for crisis changes the topic, concentrates power).

You can decide what comes next for you by starting your won business.

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USA Food Exports to Mexico

Mexico is USA's #2 trading partner, behind Canada, and food exports is the about the 5th or 6th largest component of export sales from USA to Mexico.  Reports are food exports to Mexico are collapsing, as are the reports on China.  But just as with China it depends on "what food?"

Pick any country and study for yourself.

For example,12.--oil seeds and oleaginous fruits; miscellaneous grains, seeds and fruits; industrial or medicinal plants; straw and fodder is down some 40%, but 15.--animal or vegetable fats and oils and their cleavage products; prepared edible fats; animal or vegetable waxes is up 10%.  13.--lac; gums; resins and other vegetable saps and extracts is up 250%.

If you drill down on 12, you find the big culprit is soybeans again, that subsidized GMO crop.  Flours, meals, way down, all Big Ag items. Check out 1209994090.--seeds, fruits and spores, of a kind used for sowing, nesoi, up over 3.5 times, specialty foods.  Looking through those listings we also see USA is exporting both  cattle feed and the means to create cattle feed in Mexico. Is our draught an opportunity for Mexico to capture market share?

The whole "get big or get out" ag policy with its massive subsidies for big is a disaster that will play out over the coming years, and into the vacuum will come the specialty foods.

The trade data always raises questions.   Proceeding from facts can help ask the right questions, and in time to take advantage.  People leave my classes with information no one else has, and can be traded on, one way or another.

Next week another round starts.  

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Changes in Collections

No friend of the decision, this lawyer explicates a surprising ruling on 3rd party debt collectors:

The Second Circuit’s ruling that federal preemption is available only when debt is held by a national bank, but not after sale of the debt to a non-bank investor, is a troubling precedent with respect to sales of bank-originated loans. The Madden decision is particularly troubling due to its assertion that application of various local state law usury claims to non-bank investors would not significantly interfere with a national bank’s ability to exercise its powers under the Bank Act. Unless reversed, Madden could significantly disrupt and cause restructuring of the secondary market for loans originated by national banks, including the manner in which bank syndicated credits and securitization platforms operate. Madden also has the potential to affect the valuation of bank loans already held by non-bank investors.

Well, Deus ex machina!  A conflict between circuit courts... on up goes the argument.

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Bene-credit, not Kabbage

Well, the right impulse...

ATLANTA, June 16, 2015 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- UPS Capital^®, a subsidiary of UPS^®(NYSE:UPS) that provides supply chain financial, insurance and payment services, announced today a partnership with Kabbage^®, a leading technology and data platform that powers automated small business lending. UPS Capital can now offer its small business customers seamless, real-time access to capital via Kabbage, to deliver the borrowing power they need to grow their businesses.  The Kabbage technology platform continuously monitors the health and seasonality patterns of its customers to automatically deliver the right level of funding to each customer at the right time.
"Small businesses are essential to America's economy, as they are responsible for two out of every three new jobs in the United States," said Ronald Chang, president of UPS Capital. "Since the recession, small businesses have had a difficult time accessing the capital they need to manage cash flow, hire new employees or purchase new inventory and equipment. By partnering with Kabbage, UPS Capital can now help more small businesses grow and achieve their potential."
 "UPS has been an important investor and partner for Kabbage since we launched four years ago," said Rob Frohwein, Kabbage co-founder and CEO. "We are thrilled to expand this relationship today to be able to seamlessly deliver capital to millions of UPS small business customers.

But wrong solution...  I critiqued Kabbage here, and in any event, any solution that involves usury is a nonstarter in business.  I recall when UPS extended credit and never charged interest.  Times have changed, and we are headed back to the future.

We do not need computer algorithms to decide how much money you need and when, we need the community building credit extension by the people closest to your business.  Small businesses have been infected with EZ Credit, rewarding the least talented and undermining the best.

Eschew Kabbage.  We don't need asset-less backed capital, we need to extend and receive credit amongst ourselves.

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Follow Up On Kickstarter Start-up

Last Sunday I reproduced a conversation with a past seminar participant, and it continues:

On Jun 14, 2015, at 5:07 AM, BN wrote:

 

***...What you describe next skips that critical step. Based on what solution to what problem?  And what criteria?***

 

Watchmaking is not about time keeping as much as it is about beautiful things, well made, by people with past down skill, watchmaking is an endless task. It doesn't matter if you're a huge brand or a small entrepreneur, we all have dreams and hopes and we're entitled to have them. We have the ability to improve and to perfect. Nothing is perfect.. When you buy my watch you'll buy into that. That's the first selling point.

***Right up there with Patek Phillipe etc, I like it.***

 

The second selling point is the design. New business means innovation but it's also finding that perfect balance and harmony between old and new.

***Which also constitutes innovation.  #1 complaint from past participants "new product is so much easier than you say...."  Well, I say it in the book, i say it in the class, i say it in the blog...  but no one hears it, until they do it... just about everyone overdoes it...  learn from apple... they do almost nothing iteration from iteration...***

For as long as human history people have craved expressions of the world around them that mirror the time and place they live in. Surrounding influences form the publics perceptions of what they think are aestethically pleasing,  the social the cultural. technical aspects etc all form part of our designs. Hence, I think you are right, as entrepreneurs we must serve to define what these common perceptions are by asking the customers what they want. But my question is: does an artist always ask permission?

***Yes, artists always ask permission...  once they sell something they tend to replicate that which sold the last painting... any art history course will tell you that...  Michelangelo  had to do-over the Sistine chapel for getting it wrong, but he was a sculptor, not a painter, so he can be forgiven, painting wasn't his thing.***

An artist is not a business man but without the work of the artist the businessman doesnt have anything to sell.

***Well, every artist I met is all about the money.... but yes, you have the design component estimate right...  who will you have design your watch...  The beatles had George martin design their early music, and Eric Clapton had Phil Collins move his sound into the 1980s.  Who is your designer?***   

I believe that design is not about conditioning oneself to what the public wants. The public doens't know what they want before you show it to them. Nor is design about innovation for innovations sake. It doesnt always have to solve a tangible problem and it's not about the more daring or innovative ideas you have. It's about striking that perfect balance between a number of elements. The human psyche plays a major part in our choices as consumers. I believe I can tap into that.

***Desiridata.*** 

I do a tremendous amount of research online and through magazines,

***Which demonstrate passion...***

I speak to the owners of watch boutiques

***the only research that matters...***

and I find inspiration from all parts of my life. I have a picture of the watch in my head, its still somewhat unclear. I've sketched it out on paper and it's not perfect. I feel that there i something missing but I know it has the potential of becoming an icon once its finished.

***Perfection is the enemy of the good.  Look at the first apple computer.  http://ranger.befunk.com/pics/latest/Coast%20with%20Mom-Pages/Image174.html 

Jobs would still be tinkering in his garage if he waited for perfection.  You can start at a higher level since there are components for your idea in place where there were none for Jobs.  You'll both start with what is at hand.*** 

--------------

 

***Well, in business the customer is the most important thing, and design is the hardest thing.  Without customer input, getting the design right is unlikely.***

 

Well, I suppose I should find out who will be my customer but how can I do that when I don't have a product sample?

***By trying to buy your idea when you visit those watch shops.  Get to where they say it is a good idea and does not exist.  The reason Rolex and Patek introduce new watches every so often is boutiques desperately need new.  They need it from you or Patek, they don't care.***

How should I get feedback from the customer at this point? All I have are some very rought sketches in a note pad. How about I show these sketches to a group of end-consumers that own similar watches and check their reaction?

***No, work from ideas, and let them sketch anything they think is critical...  handwritten sketches from an upscale store owner explaining an innovation is gold as you proceed through designers and makers to prototypes, which in time you will bring back to those pipers to show them the tune they called.***

Perhaps I could get the contact details somehow of customers who've bought similar watches

***Your customers are the retailers not the end users....***

and do a Galupp poll or use focus groups. Seems costly and time consuming though...

***To much money for too much info that you do not need nor can apply...***

tips would be appreciated how I can test my design cheap, fast and realiably to make it worthwhile.

*** Form a hypothesis as to what is missing, test the hypothesis with the customers you expect to buy form you (by trying to buy it from them) and then return with that which they proclaimed a good idea but does not exist.**

I think a brand name must be short. It should be possible to easily pronounce in whatever language or culture. Now if I told you the name of some chinese fellow who created awatch you'll wouldn't remember it (unless you're fluent in Chinese). Did you know that the most well recognized brand in China is LV. Easy to remember and everyone can pronounce two it.... Problem is I've seen another watch company that uses the same abbreviation and I don't want to infringe on their name. Naming a company nowadays is a real problem....... How about making up a name completely? A word that doesn't even exist and then creating values around that?

***Mercedes Benz, Patek Philippe, True Religion are also extremely well known in China...  you are waaaay too hung up on a name...  Calvin Klein, Tiger Woods, Your Name.  Done.***

Problem with B2B is that they'll buy minimum order and they'll want marketing material, point of sale merchandise.

*** Sure they want it, all buyers want it, but ultimately they want new.  Tell them no, the word buyers most love to hear, for until they get a no, they cannot make a decision.  Say your watch is $5000 wholesale.  All retailers have an advertising budget.  Tell them you offer a 10% ad allowance if they mention your product by name in their ads.  They jump on that, which costs you nothing out of pocket, except for one ad slick, which you can get done for $200 world class production.  This is al in my book.***

Kickstarter is all digital. If they don't sell the merchandise they might even want to ship it back to you. On crowdfunding platforms such as kickstarter you know the suppliers minimum order and the whole idea is to get enough purchases to cover than initial production run. If you can't succeed at that you've lost the time and the money you've spent developing the prototype and the video. If I succeed at Kickstarter I should have great leverage with retailers and suppliers.

***Right...  but unknown:  how will top boutiques view a product that is kickstarter  generated (I don't know.)  Also, again, why only kickstarter, why not parallel both processes, so if kickstarter fails (I believe most do, you should check that...) you can keep going with the old school process.  (and again, kickstarter is nothing new, just digital.)*** 

I would think the customer acquisition cost would be far less online. Please tell me if I'm misguided and why since I can't afford to make costly mistakes. Should I look for B2B underwritings instead?

***That is the great delusion, "customer acquisition cost is far less on line..."  it is more like 20 times higher online that in brick and mortar.  This is another reason what 1. Even amazon makes not money with online sales, 2. why online b2c is stuck at 6%, less than mail order catalogs in the 1980s.  I've demonstrated this repeatedly in my blog posts...***

----------

By following the plan you outline, it is do or die as you say above.  My guess is likely die.  On the other hand, sticking with Plan A, and running a kickstarter after the fact, if Kickstarter does not pan out, you still have a viable item to pursue.

 

If say I needed 1000 sales to make the first production run and I only reached 800 I might look at ways to improve the design and make another run at it. But if I failed completely I would not pursue the idea since something would be very wrong in my judgement.

***done right, 98% of your watch is off the shelf components, with 2% new.  Your minimum might be 100 watches, or even 20 if they are in the $5000 range. 

-----------

There is absolutely nothing new about kickstarter, throughout history, in times of peace and prosperity, private projects were funded by subscription (underwriting, literally writing the names of backers under a description of the project.) Kickstarter has changed nothing.  use it the way it as intended, and maybe it might help, but don't depend on it or organize around ti...

 

Agreed! Kickstarter is not where I intend to do business. Kickstarter will help me get the first production run, be able to show retailers and suppliers that there is a demand for my product, nothing more.

I will make it mandatory to give feedback if you buy my watch through a crowdfunding platform and there will be rewards for whoever gives the best feedback. Hopefully with thousands of comments on my watch design I'll be able to perfect.

** I dare say that the kickstarter idea has spurred forward movement, but I am afraid in the wrong direction...  you do not need money, you need customers... but anyway, kickstarter will not let you do your idea of "help design" with kickstarter feedback...  also, again end-users are not your customers... the boutique watch shops are...***

more coming occasionally...

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How to Play the End of Capitalism

David Stockman has a gift as a historian and is irreplaceable in his role as covering the world economic scene.  I hope you subscribe to his blog/emails (free) (scroll down right side of his website) and read him regularly.  Especially good is this current series, five installments so far, on the Warren Buffett economy.

Read the whole thing, but here is a critical passage, within which I will make some comments:

Just the opposite. The entire regime of monetary central planning is aregrettable historical detour; it did not need to happen because massivecentral bank intervention is not necessary for capitalism to thrive.Contrary to the prevailing statist presumption, the free market does nothave a death wish; it is not perennially slumping toward underperformanceand depressionary collapse absent the deft ministrations of the fiscal andmonetary authorities.

See the problem here?  Stockman is using capitalism and free markets interchangeably, although he makes the distinction that once capitalism is abused it becomes crony capitalism, not free market.  He is right essentially, there need not be intervention by the state, in fact, we need strict separation of business and state.

In fact, today’s style of heavy-handed monetary central planning destroyscapitalist prosperity. It does so in a manner that is hidden at first—–because credit inflation and higher leverage temporarily gooses thereported GDP. But eventually it visibly and relentlessly devours the vitalingredients of growth in an orgy of debt and speculation.

Yes, that is the effect of state intervention, and notice he hits the nail on the head: "because credit inflation..." Perzactly...  and he will be the first to note there are at least two kinds of credit, good and bad (which is confusing since "bad credit" also means a person), so I will coin the terms mal-credit and bene-credit to define the two: mal-credit is usury and asset-less credit (usually extended in a way in which profits are privatized and losses are socialized, as in student loans, car loans, auto loans, ExImBank, ad nauseum).  Bene-credit is private, usury-free, non-transferable credit (and its flip side, debt).  In the case above, Stockman is referring to mal-credit.

To appreciate this we need to turn back the clock by 100 years—-to theearly days of the Fed and ask a crucial question. Namely, what would havehappened if its charter had not been changed by the exigencies of WoodrowWilson’s foolish crusade to make the world safe for democracy?
The short answer is that we would have had a banker’s bank designed toprovide standby liquidity to the commercial banking system. Moreover, thatliquidity would have been generated not from fiat central bank creditconjured by a tiny posse of monetary bureaucrats, but fromself-liquidating commercial collateral arising from the decentralizedproduction of inventories and receivables on the main street economy.

Well, yes, this would truly be an improvement on the disastrous, war-provoking results we get now, but he opposes the mal-credit regime to the true free-market, but leaves capitalism, and its central tenet of usury, in place.  So what?  Well, he allows the bene-credit of asset-backed inventories and receivables, which is essential in the free market, is still free market when put to use by capitalists. Watch what he does with it:

That is to say, the 12 Federal Reserve Banks designed by the great CarterGlass in the 1913 Act were to operate through a discount window where goodcommercial paper would be discounted for cash at a penalty spread abovethe free market rate of interest. The job of the reserve banks was to dongreen eyeshades and assess collateral based on principles of bankingsafety and soundness——a function that would enable the banking system toremain liquid based on the working capital of private enterprise, not theartificial credit of the state.

Note:  1. "free market rate of interest."  2. "discount window".

Free market rate of interest is an oxymoron because there would not be any interest (usury) in a free market.  Those in the market willingly extend credit at no interest all along the comity.

Predators and their handmaidens, people who want something for nothing,  are always at the ready to leverage interest (usury) one way or another to lure the weak away from the unitary and creative effects of the free market and destroy them with usury.

1. Weak competitors are given a temporary advantage with usury.  They win and distort the free market, or lose and socialize the losses while privatizing the profits.  In any event, their offerings must be less valuable since the usurer must have his pound of flesh.  Think McDonalds, Boeing, the Gap, mega-churches, Romney/Obamacare, the middle east wars, etc.

2.  Weak consumers are lured into choices they would not make without predatory lending, again distorting the market and harming the consumer: think pay day loans, auto loans, ExImbank loans, ad nauseum.

Sure, usury is among consenting adults, but it cannot obtain unless it is legally enforceable.  Here capitalism fails, for it depends on state force and fraud to exist.  Free markets need neither.

And note that is the flip side of interest (usury), discounted notes, is also provided for.

All of this allows for the centralization of credit, at a profit. Capitalism is by definition about the concentration of wealth, and extremely effective in that process, but utterly unnecessary to peace and prosperity, and often militates against it.

Accordingly, there would have been no central bank macro-economic policyor aggregate targets for unemployment, inflation, GDP growth, housingstarts, retail sales or any of the other litany of incoming economicmetrics. The level and rate of change in national economic output andwealth would have been entirely the passive outcome of interaction on thefree market of millions of producers, consumers, savers, investors,entrepreneurs, inventors and speculators.

True, true... what Stockman decries is the size of the destruction, not the kind.  Capitalism necessarily includes usury (charging interest at any amount for any term) and Stockman is right to decry the morally criminal regime we have now, but he is merely conservative, wanting to reduce the damage to reduce the criminality to a more rational, manageable level.

To take advantage of the free-fall coming, you cannot be a capitalist.  Capitalism is over.  We are in regressionto the mean, in which understanding free markets puts you where you need to be as we see advantaged those who understand wealth as the range of goods and services accessible to the widest group of people with their own means, and the wealth transfer from those who believe wealth is a matter of personal accumulation.  those who have massive personal accumulation, well, any personal accumulation in the form of property, pension and (sinecure) paycheck, are toast over the next 50 years.

Start your own business, extend credit to your customers, and become part of the unnoticed solution.

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Islam Conquest Brought Prosperity

The Prophet Muhammed was a merchant and the Koran and the accessory documents of Islam are full of free-market-based ideas and ethics.  You have to dig deep to find out that in fact Islam spread not by the sword but by North African Christians escaping the chaos of the aftermath of the Fall of Rome to the anarchy (no+king) of Islamic free trade, peace, prosperity.

In a free market by specialization and division of labor, what is rare, expensive, not so good, and slow in coming becomes more better cheaper faster.  This is so basic to humanity that even Chairman Mao made it central to his Communist regime, but not able to achieve it within Communism.  It took right-deviationist Deng Xiao-ping to get the ball rolling.

Let’s look at the evidence that what was precious under the Romans was commonplace under Islam, a tribute to the free market ethic of Islam.  (email me if you want a .pdf of the article...)

We see a clear temporal increase in the number and range of species, with six present in the Roman deposits, but a further six in evidence during the medieval Islamic period(11thcentury onwards). The extensive excavation and sampling programme at Quseir al-Qadim and Berenike suggest that the spices recovered from the Roman period are representative for what was traded through the ports, but this should not be taken to mean that the spices absent in the Roman samples (e.g.gingerandcardamom) were not traded during the Roman period – in archaeology we never argue from absence. The ancient texts do, in fact, mention spices such as cinnamon, cardamom and ginger. Rather, the archaeological evidence provides an indication of the scale of the trade, and, together with context (in what type of locations and deposits the spices were found), shifts in usage. For example, the larger the quantities of a particular spice transhipped at the ports, the more likely the chance of spillage and thus the chance of some remains being lost and entering the archaeological record. In contrast, the smaller the quantities and the more precious (and therefore expensive) the commodity, the more effort would have been exerted to avoid accidental loss. Thus, the archaeobotanical evidence suggests that black pepper was traded in larger quan- tities than any of the other spices, something confirmed by textual evidence, while, in contrast, spices such as cardamom, cinnamon and ginger were in Roman times far too valuable to be spilled or consumed in the ports... 

Read on for the entire paper, pretty interesting work by archeologists on early world trade.

That ISIS is largely the product of Western intervention is clear by the violence of ISIS.  That ISIS spread so fast is just a replay of the common folk embracing the liberators who stand up to a country whose male generals marry men, whose most talked about story is a man who is attempting surgically reassign himself to the other team, and desires to solve its debt problems by generating more debt.

During the Crusades, a failed project, Crusaders on the way to the Holy Land, according to contemporary Jewish sources, attacked Jews for blaspheming Jesus and Mary.  The attacks were lethal.  For fun we have “insult Mohammed” drawing contests.  We have also executed 1 in 7 Americans so we can have better lives since the early 1970s.  Who would want our system imposed on theirs?

Along with history and economics, we are not allowed to study the bible, or in any way that might be accurate.  For example, we act as if falling towers and murderous actions are unprecendented, but Jesus himself was asked directly about both and He said “don’t worry about their souls, worry about what is in store for you.”

Luke 13 Revised Standard Version Catholic Edition (RSVCE)Repent or Perish13 There were some present at that very time who told him of the Galileans whose blood Pilate had mingled with their sacrifices. ² And he answered them, “Do you think that these Galileans were worse sinners than all the other Galileans, because they suffered thus? ³ I tell you, No; but unless you repent you will all likewise perish. ⁴ Or those eighteen upon whom the tower in Silo′am fell and killed them, do you think that they were worse offenders than all the others who dwelt in Jerusalem? ⁵ I tell you, No; but unless you repent you will all likewise perish.”

The most authentic place to be is self-employed, or working therapeutically towards that estate.  Whether times are good or bad, you are in the right place.  If you were employed tha last 40 years, you were lulled into thinking you were accumulating personal wealth which in fact you were getting bupkus.

Self-employed you are contributing to wealth defined as the widest range of goods and services accessible to the widest range of people by the means they themselves can generate.

If and when our system comes down, you’ll need to know free-markets, something radical in both Christianity and Islam.  You can see working examples of this in places like Hong Kong, where radicals from all religions work harmoniously in peace and prosperity.  We could get there too.

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How Social Media Kills Brands

With so many people believing social media can make you, hear from the super-premium logo people who say it breaks you:

Meanwhile, a bumper crop of niche brands such as Zadig & Voltaire, Sandro and Rag & Bone are providing fresh competition. These labels, with their $895 jackets or $525 ankle boots, are relatively affordable compared to ultra luxury brands, but they are still pricey enough to appeal to affluent consumers who want something that feels distinctive and has a halo of great craftsmanship.
It also doesn’t help that customers are interacting with luxury brands on Instagram, Pinterest and other online channels, speeding up the time it takes for a shoe or handbag to travel from must-have to boring.
“Social media does play a huge role in desensitizing us to these things that used to feel so special, because we’re seeing it over and over again,” said Aba Kwawu, principal of TAA PR, which works with luxury fashion clients. “By the time things are hitting the stores, customers are over it.”

Your unknown specialty brand is more valuable to the specialty retailer than the well-known logo brands.  Don't waste time marketing online, especially to ill effect.

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Exporting Specialty Food All-Day Boot Camp

If you need the shortest distance between now and export orders for your specialty food or beverage item, then UCBerkeley Extension has a one day boot camp to get you selling soonest.

You will learn how to find customers for any food or beverage anywhere in the world in

this one day intensive seminar. Whether you are working as a food producer, or as an

agent representative, find out how to make an export sale no more difficult and just as

profitable as a domestic sale.

Food is USA’s #1 export growth market, and the studies show start-ups gain the lion’s

share, if they follow rules we lay out in this class.

In this class you’ll learn the tool, tactics and attitude to directly get orders, and if

not, get information you can act on so you do. You develop trade data intelligence

which only you will have. We go straight at the customer.

You learn to become expert in the international trade of your product, without having to

become expert in international trade. Product selection, compliance, logistics,

finance, and even web presence is covered in this one day seminar highly rated for

content, pace and humor. You will build this at your own pace, to whatever level you

want, and certainly working out of your home to start.

This course carries CEUs and is eligible as an elective in the UCBerkeley Extension

Entrepreneurship certificate. Contact the program office at 510-642-4231 or

extension-business@berkeley.edu for more information.

While worth doing on your own and eligible for tax deduction (consult IRS rules) talk to your boss about employee education benefit to fly in for this all day Saturday seminar.  With the hands-on direct action process, you'll make news, enhance your image and grow your business.

Once finished, you'll join a cohort moving toward a collective trade show booth overseas when your sales warrant it.  Join us!

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China Trade Crashing

If you review the current USITC gross reports on trade with China, exports to China are crashing.  Of course we are told they we are in recovery, except if you are unemployed, then there is a depression going on.

There may be no jobs, but there is plenty of work.  We have a massive government structure guaranteed to do the wrong thing, but that does not mean you cannot do well while doing good, as long as you ignore them.  One critical thing is do not take their student loans, but for most that is too late.  Ten years ago my classes were full and student loan debt was 300 billion and bankruptable.  Today my classes are very low enrollment and student loan debt is one trillion, 300 billion and not bankruptable.  The student loan program has broken tens of millions, those who would have taken my classes the last ten years.  (How do I know?  The zips of my customer base and the zips of the student loan distribution.) They simply don't have the $100 to take a seminar, no matter how beneficial.

John's communication skills, ideas, experience, handouts were exceptional. This armed me with reality about (the) business...this class was better than the two years I spent getting my MBA.Paula Royalty, Bellevue, WA

What that means is more opportunity for those few who eschewed government "benefits" like "student loans."  (If it is not bankruptable, it sure ain't a loan, it's social engineering.)

For example, if you drill down on our #1 export category (oil seeds and oleaginous fruits; miscellaneous grains, seeds and fruits; industrial or medicinal plants; straw and fodder), from the two digit level, which is crashing this year, you'll note our # 1 export in that category, soybeans, is down some 40% for the first four months of this year, yoy.  And that is 97% of the export category.  But #2, just 1.9% of the category (1214.--rutabagas (swedes), mangolds, hay, alfalfa (lucerne), clover, forage kale, lupines and similar forage products, whether or not in the form of pellets) is up some 30%.

If animal feeds were your thing, you'd find (1214900040.--rutabagas (swedes), mangolds, fodder roots, clover, sainfoin, forage kale, lupines, vetches and similar forage products nesoi, whether or nt in pellet) is up over 900%.

You can do this all day long, specialty items are doing very well, but USA policy of "get big or get out" is over.  Who is getting hammered most are the welfare queens who benefitted most the last 40 years.  Along with get big or get out, "food as a weapon" is also stated USA policy.  That too has failed, and China defeated USA in the world war we fomented in food.

What will Cargill, ADM, Monsanto and Boeing all do now that the game is over?  Call for war, of course, and reauthorization of the ExIm Bank.  Nothing we can do about the ExImBank reauthorization, even bigger and more secret, but the war thing is still optional.

Let's look at another food export with a big drop:  15.--animal or vegetable fats and oils and their cleavage products; prepared edible fats; animal or vegetable waxes, 48th on the list, form 109 to 15 million YOY, YTD.  Yikes, soybeans again...  1507.--soybean oil and its fractions, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified, from 97 to 14 million in export sales.    Ouch!  Expect war.

At the same time, 1521.--vegetable waxes (other than triglycerides), beeswax, other insect waxes and spermaceti, whether or not refined or colored is up 2.5 times.  Specialty waxes are growing, drill down to beeswax and it is growing 3.5 times...  152190.--beeswax and other insect waxes and spermaceti, whether or not refined or colored.  Commodities hammered, specialty flying.

There is massive work to be done, sadly millions have gone broke irretrievably because of the student loan scam run by a predatory government and its agents in education.  Love that climbing wall at your school?  All the electronic gear stacked up in the corner?  If these people work, their money will just be taken from them to pay for all that.  Their $35,000 debt will not go down, but in deflation, you'll be able to live as well on less priced in nominal terms every day  (and self-employed ever better).  There is forgiveness for the loans if you join the military (war!) but we could also simply authorize bankruptcy of student loan debts.  Less people die that way.  I just hope you did not waste the time as well pursung a business, computer science or finance degree, when you could have gotten a useful comparative religion or French degree.

BUt in self-employment, the business is the lifestyle, and they can only come after a % of what you pay  yourself OUTSIDE of the business expenses of your lifestyle business.  Those are the rules, and as Saul Alinsky points out, you can beat them using their rules.  

The most revolutionary act you can perform is to start a business.  There is unlimited work that need to be done.  I have an exporting food seminar coming up, and you'll note a couple of payment options are "bill me" and check or money order, and PO.  In essence, with these I extend credit to the enrollee.  Times are tough.  The world can be a wicked place, and that is good to know.  Look into the abyss, but don't fall in.  Know what is what and still thrive.

Exporting Food as a Small Business

Course Objective: To find overseas business no more difficult than a domestic sale yet as profitable.

Week One - Orientation and Market Targeting

Week Two - The FOB MOQ US$ Prepaid Order Offer

Week Three - The Export Order Offer Website (passive marketing)

Week Four - Actively Marketing Your Products to Qualified Buyers

Bonus: Trade Show Booth Management

Schedule -

Summer Session 2015

Tuesdays 6/23 - 7/14/2015 Four Sessions

Live Online 6 PM to 7 PM Pacific Time

(This would be 7 PM to 8 PM Mountain, 8 PM to 9 PM Central, 9 PM to 10 PM Eastern)

http://seattleteacherscollege.net/exfoassmbu.html

Sign up now.

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Kickstarter As Test Market, Not Crowdfunding

On Jun 13, 2015, at 10:04 AM, BN wrote:

Hi John,

I am embarking on a journey to design my own product and I would be grateful for your advice along the way.

I've never done anything like this before and I haven't done any market research but everything has to be a first. I've taken inspiration from a fellow on Youtube.

My goal is to fail/succeed fast and cheap with the help of kickstarter. Kickstarter allows me to gauge demand for the watch.

***OK... the error starts here.  Kickstarter is for crowdfunding projects.  It can also gauge some demand, but for what?  You are imagining kickstarter obviates the need for a step I call critical, and that is market test of a product that solves a problem.  What you describe next skips that critical step.***

-First step is to develop a product specification.

***Based on what solution to what problem?  And what criteria?***

-Second step is to select a supplier and make a prototype.

***You'll want the best supplier, and to convince them to work with you, you'll need of names the buyers who said your idea is good and does not exist...***

-Third step is to produce a simple marketing material (video) for the kickstarter website.I will document the process in a blog to be able to show the amount of work and passion I've put into making this watch the best it can be.

***Again, by whose criteria, and what makes you think your work and passion is what will sell your product?***

As for the second step, I've learnt much from you how to source products and find supplier.

***You are very kind to say so, but recall I also say the best suppliers will not consider you unless you've taken the fundamental Plan A steps of testing your solution to your problem with those very stores you expect to be your customers.***

The third step I have some experience with. But the first step when it comes to the product development I have no experience but I aim to figure it out. My goal is to finnish the product design and specification by the end of this summer.

***Well, in business the customer is the most important thing, and design is the hardest thing.  Without customer input, getting the design right is unlikely.***

Would it be a good idea to contact a supplier/manufacturer to ask what sort of specification they are looking for before I start writing the specs? Or should I write my own design specs first and then contact the manufacturer?

***You approach the best maker with your specs, informed by customer feedback.***

I don't have a company yet and I don't see any point in having one until I have some sales. 

***Agreed!***

As for the name of the company however I suppose I should have one. This is always a dilemma since I will be stuck with the name forever. I don't want to name it after my own name for a couple of reasons. Firstly I don't have a very unique name and secondly I wouldn't be a good ambassador for the brand.

*** You think a name makes a business?  A business makes a name.  The reason companies hire pitchmen is cuz no one in the company is a good ambassador.  Don't worry about that.  Just use your name.***

This is going to be a fairly pricy product so it should have a name that conveys heritage/history. Of course, this is a common dilemma when it comes to starting a new product brand.

***Not sure why you think that... if you use your name, you can associate any thing you want with it...***

What would be your tips. Should I hold off with naming the company for now?

***Starting now identify the item with your name, and stay with that.

You may not have noticed you are also depending, by implication, on web-based B2C business model by assuming Kickstarter will make you.  Well, the web is no place to conduct B2C, since only about 6% of retail sales take place on the web (and the most expensive customer acquisition costs) and you really need ot act B2B, wholesale to get enough orders to cover the suppliers minimum in a workable amount of time profitably.

By following the plan you outline, it is do or die as you say above.  My guess is likely die.  On the other hand, sticking with Plan A, and running a kickstarter after the fact, if Kickstarter does not pan out, you still have a viable item to pursue.

There is absolutely nothing new about kickstarter, throughout history, in times of peace and prosperity, private projects were funded by subscription (underwriting, literally writing the names of backers under a description of the project.)

Kickstarter has changed nothing.  use it the way it as intended, and maybe it might help, but don't depend on it or organize around ti...

hope this helps...

John

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Stockman on the Market and Economy

So look at GDP, the red line and the valuation of all equities and financial debt, the blue line, the blue line is the claims on the redline.  See a problem?  And debt or equity you own is thus encumbered.

David Stockman state plainly:

This central bank fueled boom will ultimately be paid for in the form of a prolonged deflationary contraction. Then, trillions of uneconomic assets will be written off, industrial sector profits will collapse and the great inflation of financial assets over the last 27 years will meet its day of reckoning.

As Ross Perot said, when you see a truck coming down the sidewalk, you step off the sidewalk.  But, you know, it is just not that easy.  There are several steps to avoid this truck.  But maybe it is just easy come, easy go.

Read through all four parts.  But when Stockman says "market capitalism" understand he means "free markets.

As indicated in Part 2, the assumption that market capitalism is chronically and destructivly unstable and that the business cycle needs constant management and stimulus by the state is belied by the historical facts. Every economic setback of modern times, including the foundation events of the Great Depression, was caused by the state—either in the form of inflationary war finance or central bank fueled credit expansion—-not by the deficiencies or inherent instabilities’ of market capitalism.

And this -

Accordingly, speculative rent-seeking in the financial arena has replaced enterprenurial innovation and supply side investment and productivity as the modus operandi of the US economy. This has resulted in a severe diminution of main street growth and a massive redistribution of windfall wealth to the tiny share of households which own most of the financial assets. Warren Buffett’s $73 billion net worth is the poster boy for this untoward state of affairs.

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