Saturday, August 1, 2015

Bogle On Market Trades

Talk about false economy:

An astonishing $32 trillion in securities changes hands every year with no net positive impact for investors, charges Vanguard Group Founder John Bogle.
...
“What else do we do? We encourage investors to trade about $32 trillion a year. So the way I calculate it, 99% of what we do in this industry is people trading with one another, with a gain only to the middleman. It’s a waste of resources.”
Rent seekers
It’s a lot of money, $32 trillion. Nearly double the entire U.S. economy moving from one pocket to another, with a toll-taker in the middle. Most people refer to them as “stock brokers,” but let’s call them what they are — toll-takers and rent-seekers.

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Thursday, July 30, 2015

Deflation is Back Front and Center

Here is a good rundown on the deflation situation:

In May 2011 this analyst changed his mind about the impact of the monetary love being spread around the world by developed world central bankers. He stopped forecasting higher inflation and instead foresaw the return of deflation.
Fresh from the battering in the deflationary storm of 2007-2009 investors did not want to hear that such monetary love would be in vain. They counted on central bankers then, just as they are counting on them now, to restore a level of nominal GDP growth that can prevent the severe burning of another painful deleveraging through default.

And its genesis in mal-credit:
Most investors still believe that we live in a fiat currency world. They believe central bankers can create as much money as they believe to be necessary. Such truths are on the front page of every newspaper, but they may contain just as much truth as the headlines of their tabloid cousins. A belief in this ability to create money is the biggest mistake in analysis ever identified by this analyst.
As usual, the arguments are hard to follow because the writer uses the word "money" for everything from credit to currency to whatever.  If you want to understand perfectly well everything tha is going on economically, then simply get the terms defined correctly, and stick to them.

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Tuesday, July 28, 2015

What Happened? I Was There...

I got a raise to $1.81 an hour, and the gal who had been there two years longer was making 1.72 an hour. She was outraged.  I had quit work for 3 months to ski, and came back in April of 1972.  Nixon had taken us off the gold (lite) standard in 1971, and inflation was kicking in.  It was a brand new world.  She got her raise eventually, they started with the new hires.  Incidentally, this was a Catholic hospital kitchen, a Catholic Hospital started by a Saint who founding a couple of dozen of these in major cities in USA.  Before 1972, there was no such thing as anyone going bankrupt over hospital bills...  if you could not pay, it was written off as charity.  Some dead rich person had paid.
The middle class started disappearing in earnest in the late 1970s.  Massive inflation started eating away at the standard of living for most Americans.  Yet much of this was covered up by access to debt.  Credit cards, creative mortgages, student loans, and auto debt all allowed Americans to continue acting as if prosperity was only an American Express card away.  Credit card debt outstanding is now back up to $900 billion, a number last seen during the Great Recession before the great deleveraging.  
There was no such thing as a student loan before 1970.  You worked summers and made enough to pay tuition and live the rest of the year.  And you actually got an education...  you did not get out of college with a BA unless you could speak another language.  Can't cut it?  Don't graduate (or more likely,  don't go... plenty of good jobs without a college education.)

There were auto loans, but you'd have a car paid off in three years max.  Yes, there were 30 year mortgages, but houses were cheap.

So yes, there were some loans at interest...  but that was the least of your expenses in life. You entire life otherwise was usury-free, on credit

To review:  mal-credit is what banks issue with no asset backing and at interest (usury)

Bene-credit: asset backed time-to-pay at no interest (usury).

In the neighborhood the pharmacy, grocery, gas station, florist, cabbie, hardware store, and so on all allowed you to buy on interest-free credit and pay at the end of the month (since people were paid once a month.)  Your clothes and appliance were bought at a department store, where there too you just signed your name and on big ticket items, GE gave you six months to pay, if you needed it.  As a kid I walked into stores and charged things to my parents.  Never interest.  The whole world worked this way.

Before lending credit destroyed our economy, the extractors (miners, farmers) extended usury-free credit to manufacturers, manufacturers to wholesalers, wholesalers to retailers, and retailers to their customers.  Almost the entire economy ran on no-interest (usury) bene-credit, except for the rare-in-a-lifetime house or car purchase.  (And these were often creatively financed.)

This entire bene-credit regime was made possible by labor, who extended credit to their employers for up to 30 days before being paid.

What happened, is all of that family business and unitive and creative finance was crowded out by EZ Cheep credit made possible by the crime of usury, on steroids, since the banks do not even bother to have assets to back their loans.

We haven't lost this.  Amazon is a customer of mine.  It takes in money immediately and pays me up to 60 days later, which means they are ahead about $20 billion on any given day.

The best fix for this problem is a New Labor Movement, which charges industry what workers are worth, since workers lend hard assets, their labor, to make this criminal regime possible.

Honor Labor.

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Monday, July 27, 2015

The Pre-Bailed Auto Industry

Since the powers that be know another crash is coming, they have engineered a pre-crash bailout of the industry.  They have allowed car loan qualifications to drop, and now people are driving cars they might possible squeak by paying now, but not when the crash comes.  Expect massive amounts of late model cars to come on the market at once, and huge savings.
By the numbers (Q1 data from Experian):
  • Average loan term for new cars is now 67 months — a record.
  • Average loan term for used cars is now 62 months — a record.
  • Loans with terms from 74 to 84 months made up 30%  of all new vehicle financing — a record.
  • Loans with terms from 74 to 84 months made up 16% of all used vehicle financing — a record.
  • The average amount financed for a new vehicle was $28,711 — a record.
  • The average payment for new vehicles was $488 — a record.
  • The percentage of all new vehicles financed accounted for by leases was 31.46% — a record.

Job #1 right now is to get rid of all yout debt.


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Sunday, July 26, 2015

Bubble Specialty Fads

Cigars attended the self-congratulatory bubble economy as it expanded, and along with cupcakes and ice cream stores, there were specialty lines, and there were fad.  Marmalade is a bubble product, but a specialty that was not a fad.  It is good in its own right, and will be made forever.

On the other had, we have cigar dealers trying to stay alive in a bubble that has blown...
While it’s still one of the bigger booths on the trade show floor, the space that housed General Cigar Co. was noticeably smaller than it has ben in recent years and much tamer. There was no music, no flashy Foundry area, no sports cars, no river…you get the point.
Funny named wines and cigars are unlikely to survive, and co-branding cigars with pro-wrestlers...  don't think so.  Good money after bad.

The article talks about the Macanudo label makeover,  a sure sign the franchise is swindling.  I accidently suggested to Ted Van Doorn that a product that was selling so well for us should have its packaging updated.    With a scowl he corrected me:  "Why put money into updating a package for an item we cannot keep in stock.  You worry about packaging when an item slows down, not when it is doing well."

OK...  always just enough to sell through...

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