Saturday, November 21, 2015

Watch Market Hammered in Hong Kong

One thinks of luxury when thinking of Swiss watches, and when I read the headline I thought it would show me something contrary to what I say: specialty does fine as mass merchandise is in deflation/freefall/death spiral.  But what does the article talk about?  Swatch, Fossil... discount leader watches:
Hong Kong’s lead against the U.S. is eroding seven years after becoming the world’s biggest marketplace for Swiss watches. The industry is pulling back in the island city, with TAG Heuer shuttering a store there in August. Richemont, , the maker of Cartier jewelry and IWC timepieces, has said its sales declined in October on weak watch demand....
“The data would suggest prudence about Swatch,” wrote Luca Solca, an analyst at Exane BNP Paribas in a note to investors. The watchmaker will find it harder to fight inventory build-up due to the difficult wholesale watch market and a significant number of new models the watchmaker is introducing, Solca said.
Competition from Apple Inc.’s smartwatch has also weighed on low-end brands of timepieces. Fossil Group Inc., a U.S. watchmaker, saw its stock slump 37 percent Nov. 13 after saying fourth-quarter sales may decline as much as 16 percent amid competition with wearable technology.
So Patek Phillippe, no word.  The article mentions Tag Heuer, but it all Swatch and low end watches  Again, low end is in trouble, not specialty.

Who cares about saving 20% tax on a $200 watch....  it's the 20% of a $5000 watch that matters,  a thousand bucks!

Sheesh...

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Thursday, November 19, 2015

If Too Much Currency is Hyperinflation, is Too Much Debt Hyperdeflation?

Money, properly defined, is a positive.

Debt, properly defined, is a negative.

Mish notes both money and debt have monetary aspects, and all deflation and inflation is a monetary event.

Now, if inflation is positively printing too much (positive x positive) currency, the the result is hyperinflation at some point, too much currency for too little goods.

Now a negative times a positive yields a negative.  A positive three times a negative five gives you three negative fives, or negative 15.  So the more debt you multiply, the more negative you get in the hole.    When there is more credit (debt facility) than demand for credit (debt facility), then there is credit deflation, hyper-deflation?

High and low, left and right, there is a head-scratching going on regarding the debt markets:
As we stated before, a negative swap spread holds no interpretative meaning, the very fact of which is the most important element.
Do they not see what they have done?  Hyperinflation of debt means hyperdeflation of currency, it seems to me.  Correct me if I am wrong.

If I am right, do not own property or pension or either, nor have a paycheck.  All bad news. Get self employed.

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Mexico Moves Toward Free Markets, Peace, Prosperity

By legalizing drugs...  which actually falls short.  There need be no rules to legalize anything, just get rid of the rules that criminalize anything.
MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - All drugs including cocaine, heroin and crystal meth will be legal in drug-scarred Mexico within 10 years, former Mexican President Vicente Fox believes, after a court ruling that he said makes the legalization of marijuana inevitable.
"I think marijuana (legalization) is a first step," Fox said in a telephone interview on Tuesday. "It's now irreversible."
Fox was president between 2000 and 2006 and became an advocate of legalizing drugs after leaving office.
Don't legalize, just decriminalize.

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Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Export Food Sales Seminar UCBerkeley Extension

Hong Kong has one allowed gambling event, horse-racing and the profits feed charity.  So when an article talks about Hong Kong's "pole position" it is from horse racing and means best placed to do something.  China plans to develop the Eurasian land-mass economy, a process abbreviated as the "belt and road" initiative, after the main trade routes anticipated.  

Here is what top Hong Kong people have to say:
Opening new markets would deliver opportunities to Hong Kong’s next generation of entrepreneurs and SMEs, who would use their initiative to create opportunities, said Victor Fung, Chairman of the Fung Group.
“That [the Belt and Road Initiative] is going to generate our next generation of SMEs. That is what’s going to deliver the next generation of forward movement and thrust for Hong Kong,” said Mr Fung.
Hong Kong is a trade center.  It makes almost nothing and has no resources.  But with 30% of business visas to USA denied (people trying to visit USA to buy or sell) Hong Kong denies nearly zero (if a visa is even required.)  If you want to sell to say France, Hong Kong is not a bad place to visit.  If you want to sell to France, Chile, Montenegro, and Mali, Hong Kong is the best place to visit.

If you need to grow export sales for food, either as a producer (principal) or an agent of producers, please join the others who will be attending an all-day food export seminar in San Francisco, Saturday, December 5, 2015, from 9am to 5pm.  Don't waste time and money blindly searching, go straight at buyers with what they need.  You'll learn the tools, tactics and attitude.

If you are in the Bay Area these seminars offer boot-camp start-up experience and time to get specific questions answered.  If you are not in the Bay Area, this is the one for which you should fly in.

You'll learn to identify markets and sources, and everything in between.  If you plan to start up a business, or need to expand your business internationally, this seminar is unique for its tactics and attitude.  It is highly rated for content, pace and humor by the participants.

Bring a laptop, we'll be taking actions in the classroom to advance your business (wifi provided.)   There is plenty of follow-up consultation with the instructor.  You leave with tools, tactic and attitude, and special info on Hong Kong, you'll find no where else.

Register now to secure your place in the class.  This one actually has Berkeley credit associated with the course, .8 of a CEU, which means if you are pursuing a degree the seminar goes on your transcript, if you want that too, and your employer is likely to cover the cost in your company education benefit program.

Email me if you have any questions.





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A Concise Recent History

David Stockman is not only an excellent economist and insider, he is a careful historian.  Read this essay:

So the demise of the Soviet Union in 1991 meant the world could have reverted to the status quo ante. That is, to a normalcy of peace, liberal commerce and a minimum of armaments that had prevailed in the late 19th century. The 20th century curse of militarism, totalitarianism and global warfare was over.
Needless to say, the sudden end to 20th century history posed an existential threat to Imperial Washington. A trillion dollar complex of weapons suppliers, warfare state bureaucracies, intelligence and security contractors, arms exporters, foreign aid vendors, military bases, grand poobahs and porkers of the Congressional defense committes, think tanks, research grants and much more——were all suddenly without an enemy and raison d’etre.

And its summary (replace anarchy with chaos):

But with the US Air Force functioning as their recruiting arm and France’s anti-Assad foreign policy helping to foment a final spasm of anarchy in Syria, the gates of hell have been opened wide. What has been puked out is not an organized war on Western civilization as Hollande so hysterically proclaimed in response to the mayhem of last weekend.
It was just blowback carried out by that infinitesimally small salient of mentally deformed young men who can be persuaded to strap on a suicide belt.

Just so.

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Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Puerto Rico Health Care Woes

Puerto Rico is sometimes called USA's 51st state, for it is completely subject ot Washington DC.  It is often given special considerations like tax-exempt status for huge companies to spur the local economy.  Odd that, it seems to work on the tax -free side, but not on the jobs side.

Now one would think living is easy in Puerto Rico, but wait:
Officials say Medicaid reimbursements for Puerto Rico are already 70 percent lower than on the U.S. mainland, while Medicare reimbursements are 40 percent lower. Medicaid provides health care for people of limited resources, while Medicare serves people 65 and older and those younger with certain disabilities. The programs reimburse hospitals and doctors providing care.
Now note, that is 40% of USA mainland.
He was refused the $300 worth of monthly medications he needs to treat the degenerative illness known as Lou Gehrig's disease that attacks the cells that control his muscles. His health care plan won't pay for the respiratory equipment that doctors say would ease his breathing. Unable to walk, he lurches about on a walker donated by his church because he was denied a wheelchair for his amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, or ALS.
$300 worth?  Well, actually, maybe $3.00 cost, and billed to medicare at $300.    I know, they say it costs billions to create a drug.  This is a lie.  It costs maybe tens of thousands to create whet they have.    they merely spend billions on themselves, congressmen, salespeople, doctors, when creating a drug. It costs no more to make a new drug than to make a new candy.

If Puerto Rico were to switch from a USA "protectorate" to a Hong Kong free market, then the medicine would be a couple of bucks.

The hegemon thrives on violence.  There have been violent efforts to free Puerto Rico ("rich port") from USA.  Never works.  Algeria tried violence for 40 years. After they quit using violence, they got independence.

Never use violence.  Then  you can afford your own medicine

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Monday, November 16, 2015

Down goes a New Highrise

Looking just like the WTC Twin Towers falling on 9-11, a controlled demolition brings down an unused new highrise in Xi-an.

118-meter-high building in Xi'an demolished

Malcredit foments such waste, building highrises nobody wants.  The scary thing is wars have the side benefit of reducing the excess capacity by destroying it, getting back to a more balanced economy.  Malcredit has the most horrific effects.  No wonder every religion and major ethical system condemns it.

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Sunday, November 15, 2015

What Is New About the USA Economy

Ivo Mosely is serializing his next book over at the Cobden Center.  It just keeps getting better.  I fraternally criticized earlier chapters for lack of precision in definitions, and in this chapter Mosely included, at least in a footnote, a quote for economic great JK Galbraith:

 ‘The study of money, above all other fields in economics, is the one in which complexity is used to disguise truth or to evade truth, not to reveal it.’

Just so.  What is wonderful about Moseley's work here is showing that all we are criticizing has been noted before, but along with the "victors write the history books". I have been reinventing the wheel while everything I am discovering has been well explicated 100, 200, 300 years ago.  So we did not go off track with the "Great Society" of the 1960s, or the "new Deal of the 1930s, or the "Roaring '20s" or the Robber Barons of the "Gay (18)90s" or the Civil War of the Revolutionary War, it goes back to about 1700, when promissory notes could be traded as an asset and interest have largely moved from defined as recovering an unexpected loss on a charitable loan to contracting an obligation to pay a gain on an uncharitable loan.

The USA was formed to escape the horrors of the European economic system, only to have Alexander Hamilton lead the USA into simply the most efficient player of the game.

Walker’s The Science of Wealth (1866) was published a hundred years after Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations. Walker saw the United States dominated by an integrated system of banking, taxes and national debt, designed to take wealth from productive workers and relocate it with an equally integrated power of government, corporations and plutocrats. Building on the last chapter of Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations, Walker points out that the National Debt is a great gift to the wealthy: they lose nothing by lending, because they get government bonds in return. Meanwhile the interest on the debt – on money that the government spends – is met by those who produce. It is a tax on the productive.[xx]

Hamilton was never a president, but a banker.  He died a slow death after a dual with the sitting vice-president, Burr, and Hamilton died a hero and martyr.  Violence never turns out well.  See subsequent USA history.

Now I have been jerry-rigging terms attempting to be clear, but it appears others already did this.  I came up with bene-credit and malcredit to describe what is going on in USA, and the world.  Read here:

The subject of how money-as-credit, and money-as-property interact with each other was subsequently almost completely ignored in mainstream economics. Knut Wicksell, many years later, caused a stir in economics circles by noticing that there were two kinds of economy, a ‘credit economy’ and a ‘cash economy’; but as far as I know he never followed up his observation with thorough analysis.[xxiii] Keynes made the same observation in his Treatise on Money (1930) but he, too, pursued the matter no further.[xxiv]

Wicksell and Keynes both addressed this, but let it go?  Then this topic is an excellent career-maker for some young PhD candidate who wants a career in academia.  Stand on the shoulders of those greats and fill in the blanks they left.  In the meantime, I think my terms, bene-credit and malcredit are clear, which is the first rule of writing.

There is so much more in this essay, so you should read it.  Yes, the last 300 years, especially the last, has been an era of mass death, war and poverty (unless you are one of the lucky few) but so what?  I got mine jack, and if nothing has changed, who cares>

But there is something new:

Fast-forwarding to today, once the independent poor have been robbed into penury they must depend upon a ‘welfare state’ to stay alive. This gives the super-rich plenty of reason to complain at the prospect of some of their money being diverted to supply those they have previously robbed with the bare ‘necessities of life’. In reality, the super-rich mostly avoid paying taxes and the burden falls on the working and middle classes.

That is Mosely's take, here is mine:

What was once reserved for the well-connected, the elite, or a politically connected few, is now down to the lowest person in society.  With an EBT card, a welfare recipient can walk into a gas station generate credit from nothing to pay for a meal.  He can also buy a car, rent a home, clothe the kids, all from nothing.   No Hegemon ever extended the rot so thoroughly through out society. it is an experiment. It works until it no longer works.

There is no fixing this problem, because those on welfare vote, adn overwhelm those who actually produce something.  Boeing, Walmart, Amazon, Google, GE and all the other welfare queens and their impoverished co-indolents at the bottom of the econ ladder all make sure the welfare/warfare state is in power.  Democracy does that.

Europe is experiencing an immigration crisis as people head for the borders, not their borders to escape, but to european borders where they will be issued such credit facility, for nothing.  Islam prohibits this kind of welfare, so one must get to putatively Christian countries (where it is also expressly forbidden by religion) to join in.

There is no rational limit to lending nothing for something, for there is no rational basis for the activity.  So when it ends, it will end for some nonrational event.  Religion advises us sins only last until the third or fourth generation, and surely the debts have now reached the point where repayment will be onto the fourth generation.

The only way to escape this disaster is to not be in it.  It's possible, the Amish have effectively avoided the horrors of the last 300 years (after a shakey start.)  But it is possible to also live in society buy not be integrated in its excesses.  In a country of 300 million, a market of 5000 is plenty to create personal surfeit, as long as you are working toward wealth defined as a collection of goods and services affordable to people with their own earnings.

We call it self-employment, but a better definition is customer-employed.

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