Cool Head: Marc Faber Takes a Temperate Tone

As a Swiss, he is a bit of an anarchist, and here is some temperate perspective from Marc Faber:

I’ve lived in Asia since 1973. We had the ’73/’74 recession, the Hong Kong Stock Market went down 90%. We had in ’81/’82 a recession and markets sold off, property markets sold off. Then in the crash in ’87 the Hong Kong Share Market was closed for four days after it had declined by 50% in one day. Then we had the peak in Japan in 1990 from where the market went down 70% and so forth and so on. Then we had the Asian crisis and we had a bear market in 2003 and again the bear market in 2009 but Asia continued to grow.
I think the growth will now slow down, but Asia’s a big region, as is China. So you can have, like in the US, maybe one state is contracting like in the mid-’90s we had a property crash in California but the other states were still expanding. We can have some sectors in China, like steel and copper and heavy industries that are all contracting. On the other hand, there may be other sectors that are still expanding.

As you read the article, note how often this titan of prognostication says "I don't know..." and where he is sure it is "gold will fall, just not as fast..."

I'd love to co-write with someone a graph showing the productive capacity of USA over time, such as I roughed out here, but make it accurate and show how much the claims of defense, subsidies, welfare, education,  interest on the debt, etc there are on the productive capacity, AFTER the ownership claims of the capitalists upon that productive capacity.  I think it would be mind boggling, and graphically demonstrate something never before seen.  It is what Faber has in his mind as he keeps saying "who knows..."

But as I have said, all these people, even the good guy/anarchist commentators, are looking to park their  survivorship bias gains.

The only place to safely keep your assets for the next forty years at least is on loan to customers in the form of accounts receivable.  But this presumes first you have started a business.  In the import and export classes I teach (see links upper right on this page), a common element is the means of production already exist, just add customer.  I have sessions starting this week, email me if you want in.  I bill my students, instead of using bank credit, now.

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USA has the Best Food in the World, and the Worst.

And Russia just announced it plans to usurp USA in the "best" category, leaving the worst for USA to produce and sell.  Here again, the breathtakingly stupid "sanctions" on Russia for defending itself against USA-led NATO destabilzation in the Ukraine have had unintended consequences.  Since Russia may not import as much, it is finding as prices rise on cheap, subsidized imports, it can perform "import substitution" with locally produced food that is better and cheaper than the imported stuff.

Clearly picking on GMO is to exclude the cheap stuff, linked above:

According to official statistics the share of GMO in the Russian food industry has declined from 12 percent to just 0.01 percent over the past 10 years, and currently there are just 57 registered food products containing GMO in the country. The law ordering obligatory state registration of GMO products that might contact with the environment will come into force in mid-2017.

Aside from being harmful as designed, GMO is prima facie dumping since it is sold for far less than the costs of massive subsidies and tax breaks necessary to maintain it.  Normally the smart tactic is to let a coountry run itself into poverty dumping goods into your market, but in this case, GMO is not "good."

I was presenting at a conference when the expert following me disagreed with me sharply on one point: USA has a worldwide reputation for food wholesomeness and safety.  She noted the European protests, street fighting, over the TPP and food trade rule changes coming up, not to mention China regularly burns entire shipments of USA commodity foods for its variance from order, etc.

Yes, but...  my topic is small specialty food, and hers was Big Ag. USA can produce the best, and the worst.  There is much to fear from subsidized GMO: suppressed research, obesity and diabetes links, hypertension links, and just the crazy situation in which so much production is centered in so few hands.  Capitalism is collectivization with a dollar sign.

the pendulum is swinging back. Good food is hard work, and the division of labor suggests we need producers and marketers.  For my part I will train a cohort of sellers of food world wide with a with to step by step find customers which will warrant expanded production, and then lower prices.  For those who are uninitiated in free markets, lowering prices is always good, since costs drop faster than prices, so profits widen as you drop your prices to customers more slowly than your costs drop.

For those interested in learning how to sell food worldwide, I have an online, live course starting Tuesday Eve. If you cannot make the live sessions complete transcripts are sent out.  You will be taken through the steps of targeting a country for export sales, developing your offer, finding the actual decision maker for a sale overseas, and then how to add science to your passion and joy to get valid and reliable results in export sales. As you will see from the class website, the course is an hour a week for four weeks:

http://www.johnspiers.com/Export_Agriculture/Welcome.html

Winter Session  2016 

Tuesday 1/26-2/16/2016   Four Sessions

Section One ~ 6 PM to 7 PM Pacific Time

(This would be 7 PM to 8 PM Mountain, 8 PM to 9 PM Central, 9 PM to 10 PM Eastern)

The website above invites you to register, do not register!  Simply email me with the your name billing address and I will bill you later for the course.

john@johnspiers.com

If you have any questions, let me know...

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Pope Francis: St Francis or Francis I?

One of the most memorable popes in history was named after Julius Caesar, Pope Julius, the renaissance pope who rebuilt Rome and at one point vowed to throw Michalangelo off the scaffolding if he did not hurry up the Sistine Chapel ceiling.

Pope names are more political than spiritual, and the last pope, now retired Benedict XVI took the name of the famous anti-war WWI Pope Benedict XV.

So when a Jesuit took the name of Francis, all assumed he was naming himself after Francis of Asissi, pacifist, lefty-hero founder of the Franciscans.

Why?  Pope Francis I has given no aid or comfort to liberals and lefties, except some clearly out of context, bad translation quotes.  And it goes without saying the rabid uniform-queen wing of the Catholic Church has no use for him.   Capitalists fear his financial reforms and pronouncements.

King Francis I (of France)

1. Contemporary of Henry VIII, he was in the center of a shifting world order.

2. Allied with Islam to defend his realm, partner with Suleiman the Magnificent.

3. Effected profound bureaucratic reforms.

4. Patron of the Arts.

5. Open to new ideas.

6.  A beloved sister.

7.  What else?

A pope exercises deep power, whether one approves or not.  So will this one, but to understand, perhaps one ought to consider his inspiration.  His work on economics are more King Francis than Saint Francis.

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