Saturday, March 12, 2016

J Vernon McGee, Anarchy and Freedom

The protestants charge the Church with simultaneous offenses: not enough bible study and little biblical interpretation.  Guilty on both counts, but the latter charge is disingenuous. To the former charge, the Church has been busy forming small groups for Bible study, as to the latter, the Church never has nor ever will interpret the Bible.  The protestants insist everyone interpret the Bible for themselves, as if this was new to the Reformation, but that was the Catholic thing all along (except for a few New Testament passages for which interpretation is existential to the Faith, see the creeds for example.)

For my part, I've been falling asleep to the radio broadcasts (via the net) of a preacher man, the late J. Vernon McGee.  He talks like Deputy Dawg and his tapes seem to be drawn from say about 1965 to 1980.  His program claims to cover the entire Bible in five years, but he does not read it, he just paraphrases a lot of it and comments on it.  So contrary to expectations, it is not exhaustive, but he is always interesting.

What is also interesting is to listen to him over this '65-'80 time frame move from a flag-waving cracker to anti-war to something of an anarchist.  Circa '65 he talks about "pride before the fall" and his examples are Cassius Clay and Adam Clayton Powell!  (No prideful white folk circa '65?) Vintage cracker.

The '70s seem to have been radicalizing for he stops complaining about Hippies and more about the state (probably prop 9 time).   Finally he is directly criticizing the US Military from a biblical point of view. No wonder I like him.

But more interesting is his dwelling on the Bible, the study of which I think introduced what anarchist inclinations he developed.  Think of a teacher who sends a disruptive kid to the hall.    What happens next?  The kid in the hall hopes the principal or a "counselor" does not happen by, for they will ask "why?" and none of the above will credit any exculpatory explanation he might have.   Anxious.  In time the teacher will come to the door and ask if the kid will now behave.  Yes, is the eager reply, and the chastened is glad to get back in the safety of the classroom.

And when anarchy reigned for 400 years in Israel (and possibly in such places as Carthage and Mohenja Daro as their city's architecture suggests) there were a couple of interesting aspects.  Along with the eye-for-an-eye law came the refuge city provision.  Should there be a killing, if one could make it to a refuge city, and gain admittance, then he was safe.

(The fascinating thing about eye-for-en-eye is we have no examples of it every being employed.  What we do have is examples where that law leads to settlements in which the rich and poor achieve perfect symmetry in a dispute.  A poor man who agrees to be the eyes for a rich man who lost his due to the negligence of the poor man gets to keep his eyes.  Alternatively, rich man who agrees to pay for a life assistant as the eyes for a poor man who lost his due to the negligence of the rich man gets to keep his eyes.  Brilliant!)

These cities had their courts at the gates.  Lot was insinuated in the Sodom society as a judge at that city's gate.  Why at the gates?  Should the judge find someone guilty, and the guilty party disinclined to accept judgment, well, he is not let back in.  Banishment from the city was the punishment, necessary and sufficient, for all crimes and misdemeanors.  Who needs capital punishment if the person is gone? Why lock him up when you can simply lock him out?

But won't these people gang up and become a gang harassing traders moving about?  Outside the city, who knows what those aggrieved inside the city might do on a night expedition against an unrepentant malefactor?  Point is, anything and everything can happen.  Today, malefactors are protected by our "criminal justice" system which trains them up while in the slam and then releases back on the city, ready for a repeat performance, but now with enhanced skills.  And in say Los Angeles, at a cost of about $230,000 per year per juvenile.  Ka-ching!

The freest city on earth, relatively speaking, today is Hong Kong.  They have a first rate legal system, but not too burdened for the fact that Hong Kong society also has first rate mediating institutions to arbitrate disputes.  If anything gets to a judge, both parties can expect to get "justice", good and hard.

I recall an agent of mine, Hong Kong native, whose position in a dispute was untenable, and the opposing parties outraged.  My agent found it a good idea to go into China until things cooled down.  And so it was.  He banished himself from Hong Kong until matters could be dealt with by cooler heads.  At the border, coming back, the gates so to speak, he'd be obliged to answer any outstanding complaints.

Just like the kid who wants back into the classroom, whose case is decided at the classroom door.

I am completely uninterested in theory, from say a Rawls, who posits if we start from an "original position" we can build a just society.  He is popular because the hegemon promotes only bad ideas. What I prefer is systems with a long history over times and place, with examples that work today.

So let's move the courts to the city gates, and replace all the punishment codes with one simple sanction: banishment (and the time frame fits the offense.)

The bible recommends it, ultimately.  No wonder the powers that be do not want the Bible studied.

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Friday, March 11, 2016

Everyone is Wrong: World Trade Has Not Dropped Anywhere

Here is a brilliant article out of Australia, regarding the "drop" in int'l trade.  Int'l trade is reported in dollars.  Volume has not dropped, only prices.  Hence, a mistake that trade is falling.
The question of price versus volume was highlighted in a note to clients by fund manager Mike Mangan ahead of the Chinese numbers. The graphs tell the story: trade by US dollar value has indeed fallen, approaching GFC crisis levels; trade by volume has slowed, but it hasn't fallen.
Naturally, in negative interest rate, deflationary times, prices would drop on commodities first, and that is what we see, no drop in volume, just in prices.

But but but... the Baltic Dry Index is screaming depression!  No, it is screaming China is putting out 20,000 TEU megaships faster than the scrapyards can make razor blades out of older ships.  New ships, even unneeded, are counted in the index.  And captains can't wreck them fast enough either.

I'll take special care now to observe the right hand five year trends on trade analysis where the quantity is reported on my analysis, as opposed to the left hand where the dollar amounts are reported.  Gotta adjust to the times!

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Stockman China- Bashing

Do you get this attitude on the part of David Stockman, of whom I usually have much admiration:
The desperate suzerains of the Red Ponzi are incorrigible. There appears to be no insult to economic rationality that they will not attempt in order to perpetuate their power, privileges and rule.
So now comes the most preposterous gambit yet. Namely, a veritable tsunami of state handouts to foster, yes, capitalist entrepreneurs!That’s right. As described by Bloomberg, Premier Li Keqiang  gave the word, and, presto, nearly $340 billion poured into an instantly confected army of purported venture capital funds run by local government officialdom all over the land.
So the Chinese are out-hustling us in a game we started.  We never had to start the game.  We an get out of it any time.  To complain they are taking to a logical conclusion ahead of us is an odd charge.

We can also avoid the unpleasantness he foresees by simply creating what the Swiss call their WIR, plus resurrect our usury-free bene-credit based economy.  Much work ot be done, but China-bashing is rather otiose.

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Thursday, March 10, 2016

Andrew Young on Bretton Woods: He Was There

Andrew Young was interviewed By Tavis Smiley on his show, and finished with Andrew Young.  It is a remarkable interview.   I've said if something is not true in all places at all times, then it is not true.  What I teach, what I learned, what I have found reliable in just about every field, Andrew Young finds true in freedom movements.

When you have 30 minutes, give a listen here...

At 31:12 on the timer into the show,  Cornell West asks Andrew Young about MLK’s critique of capitalism and imperialism.  Young said he never heard King talk in those terms of the problems they faced.  Young said King's analysis was Biblical, not economic.  Young quotes King as saying communism needed more freedom, capitalism needed more responsibility, or words to that effect.

To my mind problems are solved on levels other than they are experienced.  Economic (physical) problems are addressed on a religious level, mental problems addressed physically, etc.

I've argued you decide the field you want to enter, the customers decide what you will sell.  as to the freedom movement:  Young wanted jobs movement, the people wanted back of the bus to the front of the bus movement.  So that was the program they had to offer.

Appealing to government never got them anywhere.  It is when the civil rights leaders met personally with business leaders and business defied the (Jim Crow) law, that the South finally integrated.  Here again, government is never the solution, business always is.  In his book, The Walls Came Tumbling Down, Dr. Abernathy chronicles the same point.  I'll say it again, if you want to be a revolutionary, start a business.

Amb. Young also talked about political power, and the disappointments regarding movement politicians of African heritage who were either co-opted or sold out.  Two points: the progressives targeted preachers of African heritage to advance their causes contrary to the flocks interests, and to some extent successfully, and who does not sell out of those who go into politics?  Does anyone expect  people of African heritage to be less corrupt than anyone else?  It's why they call it politics, because it is corrupt.

At 33: 08, Young talks about one of his first votes as a new congressman.  The 1971 vote was on ending the Bretton Woods compact in which the dollar was tied to gold.      Young admitted his ignorance of economics as a new congressman, but had the wit to ask the salient question, if "the dollar is not tied to gold, won’t people play politics with money?"

The panel testifying as to the wisdom of ending Bretton Woods consisted of Paul Volcker, Arthur Burns and George Schultz.   Arthur Burns replied “young man you’ll soon learn the dollar doesn’t need you to protect it.”

Young experienced the rebuke as  “shut up colored boy.”

The committee voted to end Bretton Woods on a voice vote.  Andrew Young was right, they were wrong.

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Wednesday, March 9, 2016

USA Imports: Fewer Cars, More Parts

Here we have some data that may be a trend, and that is fewer whole cars imported, but more car parts. In econ downturns, people repair instead of replace.  USA car dealers are unloading excess production by means of subprime auto loans, against which it is is hard for foreign automakers to compete.

Another item without hard daa yet is how many people are taking advantage of UBER's guaranteed auto sale, if someone has passed the UBER qualification.  It works like this: pass UBER driver qualification, and you cannot be turned down for a car loan with the dealer.  The car must be less than 4 years old (meaning at least $12,000 and up) and your auto payments must be made weekly out of your UBER earnings.  The trick is interest rates may be 20 + percent.  How many people end up a slave to their UBER car?  As an aside, I witnessed a woman who was buying a car explain she was not going to drive for UBER, there was just no other way for her to get a car her credit was so bad.  The UBER rep said "no problem." (So there is an exception to the payment out of UBER earnings?  Does UBER not car for it gets a cut of the interest?) Wonder how common that is, wonder how that worked out for her.

Anyway, parts vs whole cars:

http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/data/index.html

If the trend continues, auto repair is getting better as a biz.

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Tuesday, March 8, 2016

Portland Oregon 23 April 2016 All Day International Business Start-up

If you need to start-up international trade now there is an all day live seminar held 23 April 2016 in Portland Oregon.  The details can be found here with a link to registration.

You can find the Spring dates for my online Exporting Food Seminar here,  and my online Import Export Seminar can be found here.

If you are truly ambitious, there is the Hong Kong Seminar Project here.

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God, Statistics and Hong Kong

There is a remarkable account in the Bible of King David ordering a census, and it costing the Israeli people a terrible retribution by God.  The taking of the census was a crime of pride and presumption on David's part.  What is not known is how come if David did the crime, why did the Israeli people suffer? The bible doesn't say.

I think that is an easy one, so the bible doesn't say.  The people had already asked for a king, and got Saul, who went bad.  David was second in line, and David as soon as he was king got busy killing immediately a fellow who had claimed to kill Saul, David's existential enemy and predecessor, and then on to other potential threats. Saul was anointed by God, so any killing of him was sacrilege.  Leaders are untouchable.

What's that got to do with the people suffering?  The Israelis were given an exhausting list of horrors they would face if God granting them a king.  They wanted it anyway.  So as subsequent history shows, God gave the Isrealis kings, good and hard.  (Ancient Carthage and Mojenjo Daro may have been whole peaceful and prosperous anarchistic cities.  Obviously, by the biblical account, ancient Israel was anarchistic, peaceful and prosperous, for some 400 years as well.)

The upshot is when a king does wrong, it is the people who are guilty.  They demanded a king.  By extension, when a hegemon does wrong, it is the people who are guilty, not the perpetrators who give us bank bailouts when we do not want them, wars we do not want, domed stadiums we do not want.  Some people say taxes are the price we pay for civilization, I say taxes are how we prove our complicity in organized crime.  (I pay all my required taxes, or at least try to, at the same time I work all legal loophole, but this doesn't mean I am not also guilty as hell of USA crimes.)  The flipside is anyone who takes payments from the hegemon is also registering complicity.  (I hope to donate my social security checks to land mine clearing wherever we left them behind after our fun-time invasions.)

Now the reason I bring this up is an odd little item regarding Hong Kong, not perfect, but the closest thing we have in the world today to a free market.  How did it get that way?
Cowperthwaite talked to me about low taxes, a business-friendly regulatory environment, a lack of state subsidies, tariff-free trade relations with the rest of the world, and other policies he promoted during his tenure as colonial financial secretary. Of all the policies that we discussed, one stands out in my mind. I asked him to name the one reform that he was most proud of. "I abolished the collection of statistics," he replied. Cowperthwaite believed that statistics are dangerous, because they enable social engineers of all stripes to justify state intervention in the economy.
Well, there you are.  Such a simple defense of freedom, peace and prosperity.

Now, If I have a claim to fame, it is how to use stats to spot customers, and then work from there.  Is there a difference in stats used to promote efficiency and stats gathered for purposes of social engineering?   Who knows, I have already admitted as a thriving American I am guilty as hell, but let's go on.

One of my favorite organizations in the world is the Hong Kong Trade Development Association, putatively public/private, but effectively a private organization that has long collected stats and built a database of probity and sobriety that Ali Baba could only wish for.    Sure, collect stats, but do it as a private entity, with the info being for sale to interested parties, not for social engineering.

I am against hegemon provision of anything, but I drink the water, ride the busses, use the mails (especially subsidized rates), leverage schools to effect my seminars, the list goes on and on.  But there are alternatives, if any of us survives the coming gotterdammerung, they can keep in mind when the opportunity to rebuild comes.

The safest place to be the next 40 years is self-employed (more accurately, customer employed).

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Ex Im Bank.... It's Baaaaaack!

There was never really any chance it was going to go away.
WASHINGTON — In a victory for the business establishment over Tea Party conservatives, President Barack Obama on Friday signed legislation reviving the federal Export-Import Bank five months after Congress allowed it to expire.
I have not read the details, but one can assume it is

A. Bigger.

B. More lax.

C. More secretive.

These are necessary to keep secret the payoffs given to the "Tea Party" members who putatively opposed the Ex Im Bank. Now that the power has been increased and spread around, it can resume its inherent evil.

Our rules reveal our weaknesses...
The new chief ethics officer will recommend administrative actions to establish and enforce standards of ethical conduct for employees and contractors and report to the inspector general and appropriate federal or state authorities any “substantial evidence of a violation of any law applicable to the performance of official duties that may have been disclosed to the Office of Ethics.”
Since 2009, Lee added, 85 employees or beneficiaries of the EXIM Bank have been indicted for fraud, bribery and other wrongdoings. “None of these bogus ‘reforms’ will make an ounce of difference. None of them change the essential purpose of the Export-Import Bank, which is to use taxpayer money to subsidize wealthy, politically-connected businesses.”
The Ex Im bank will not end until United States ends.  The United States will end because it cannot end the Ex Im bank.  Not to say the country depends on the Ex Im bank, only if something so unimportant yet so odious cannot be ended, then there is no hope for this country.

Of the two democratic candidates today, another reason to vote Sanders is he is against the exim bank.
Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are at odds over his past opposition to the federal Export-Import Bank, which makes and guarantees loans to help foreign customers buy U.S. goods.
In Sunday's Democratic debate, Clinton criticized Sanders, saying the U.S. is in a "race for exports" and that without the bank, "more jobs would be lost here at home."
Sanders counters 75 percent of the money goes to profitable corporations such that have outsourced jobs overseas. He was the only Democrat to oppose the bank, but he says "Democrats are not always right" and "have often supported corporate welfare."
Of course Sanders is free to be anti-ExIm Bank since he knows he will not lose.  Anti-ExIm pays off as Hilary shakes down these welfar-queen beneficiaries with threats of "bernie."

When you vote for a dem or rep, you endorse this,

I wonder if what is next will be better?  Probably a few hundred years off, but I still wonder.

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Monday, March 7, 2016

Ben Franklin On Usury and Land Prices

Usury is wrong because it does damage, and Ben Franklin points out man-made laws do nothing to curb usury.  He goes on to note specific damage done by usury:
And here it may be observed, that it is impossible by any Laws to restrain Men from giving and receiving exhorbitant In terest, where Money is suitably scarce: For he that wants Money will find out Ways to give 10 per cent when he cannot have it for less, altho' the Law forbids to take more than 6 per cent. Now the Interest of Money being high is prejudicial to a Country several Ways: It makes Land bear a low Price, because few Men will lay out their Money in Land, when they can make a much greater Profit by lending it out upon Interest: And much less will Men be inclined to venture their Money at Sea, when they can, without Risque or Hazard, have a great and certain Profit by keeping it at home; thus Trade is discouraged.
 If this is true, then land is expensive right now, relatively speaking, since interest rates are being forced down to zero and negative.

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Sunday, March 6, 2016

Micky D - Better Food, Trashier Decor

McDonald's took the malcredit and grew to brontosaurus dimensions, wiping out family hamburger stands, then developed an unhealthy menu based on subsidized frankenfoods, and enticed customers with free toys, like the creep hanging around the schoolyard.  They are now dying.

Their attempts to live are astonishing:
But many locals are not impressed. One said the redesign was “a poorly thought through, corporate attempt at being down with the kids” while another said the fast food giant was “trying to card to be urban cool”. Lambeth resident Matthew Jupp said:  “Hopefully this is another step towards graffiti being really dated and corporate and thus not worth doing.”
Take a look... they want to reach the EBT crowd with their unhealthy food...  desperate to please the hegemon.

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