RE: [spiers] Re: Importing Seminar in San Francisco
Bad case of FEAR (False Evidence Appearing Real)!
-----Original Message-----
From: wileyccc@aol.com [mailto:wileyccc@aol.com]
Sent: Friday, October 05, 2001 5:14 PM
To: mariang1@mindspring.com; spiers@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [spiers] Re: Importing Seminar in San Francisco
In a message dated 10/4/01 11:04:03 AM, marian writes:
<< and
now it has gotten me concerned about our economic future and how it affects
the home accessory industry. Maybe it's a case of tunnel vision, but San
Francisco retail has been hit hard-even before September 11 with the dot com
melt down-and I am nervous about diving into this and not even breaking
even! I know I am drawing some strong conclusions here, but I would like
your professional opinion AND an idea of when you might be coming to San
Fran or the Bay Area again (I have a brother-in-law that is interested in
attending your seminar). Thank you for your insight and for your time-Maria
>>
I am at San Mateo college on Nov 3, but onto your more important question.
Yes, the economy was in a tailspin, and the WTC attack is making things
worse. The reasons aside, the question is would this be a good time to
start
a business?
The only good reason for starting a business is you want change. Either you
are driven to make the world a better place by introducing material or
service improvements; or you are compelled to do so by circumstance. The
best companies are often driven by both.
When the economy was booming everyone's boat is being lifted, so people tend
to enjoy the ride. Certainly in a booming economy there are more customers
and they are looser with their credit cards, but why risk a good thing? So
we wait.
Then, when the economy busts, we say, "well, can't do it now... customers
are
gone." This is somewhat true, but not entirely. I privately believe the
economy is worse off that anyone is letting on, and I am pretty confident
that those in charge will make matters far worse. I expect things to drop
rapidly over the next three years in a jagged pattern to heartbreaking lows,
and then take 15-20 years to get back to where we were in say, 1995. The
housing market is the next to get hammered.
In spite of all this, I expect to live better in the next two decades than I
did in the last two. Yes, sales and profits may drop in half for me, since
many of my customers are disappearing. But my expenses are dropping also.
Competing on design, there are always enough customers to satisfy and turn a
profit (if you listen), and what profits I earn will go much farther.
My mother is on a fixed income, but came home from a shopping expedition
with
silk shantung pants, a silk blouse, and a suede jacket, all color
coordinated, all brand names, for about $65, regularly $550. The mid-level
markets are getting hammered, and the are unloading goods they know will not
sell.
Yes, there are some impacts... we've decided to hold off building a house
for
another 2 years because high-end real estate is already dropping fast.
Silly
to buy now. And we hold foreign currency so if the dollar gets hammered we
are OK. On the other hand, If we want to spend a few days visiting San
Francisco, hotels are cheap, car rentals are $15/day, and no waiting at any
restaurants or shows. Life is good.
I started this in this biz in 74, when we were coming out of a recession;
the
80, 81, 82 recession were some of the most lucrative for me; and 1987 one of
my businesses was covered in BusinessWeek. Economic problems are like wind
to a sailor, you work with them. I could go on and on about what I am
personally doing, but it would not really apply directly to anyone else.
Life was fine during the boom, and we've actually made money on our
investments the last few years while many people have been hit hard. (I
never believed the "new economy" nonsense). What measures I take I learned
from others; you'll learn what you need to know as you proceed. If your
remain employed by otehrs, your welfare is pretty much up to someone else.
There is not a good time or a bad time to start a business. If one is
hesitating about the pros and cons of a given moment, then I suspect one has
not identified customers yet. Perhaps in this economy you yield only some
$40,000 your first year instead of $80,000 - but 1/2 of what would once of
have been goes a lot farther now. Also, for very many people in the dotcom
boom, there is no paid work available for their experience. For a lot of
people, 1/2 of something is the only option.
So, back to the fundamental question: have you identified customers? If so,
the time to start a business is perfect.
John Spiers
Saturday, October 6, 2001
Re: Importing Seminar in San Francisco
Friday, October 5, 2001
Re: Importing Seminar in San Francisco
In a message dated 10/4/01 11:04:03 AM, marian writes:
<< and
now it has gotten me concerned about our economic future and how it affects
the home accessory industry. Maybe it's a case of tunnel vision, but San
Francisco retail has been hit hard-even before September 11 with the dot com
melt down-and I am nervous about diving into this and not even breaking
even! I know I am drawing some strong conclusions here, but I would like
your professional opinion AND an idea of when you might be coming to San
Fran or the Bay Area again (I have a brother-in-law that is interested in
attending your seminar). Thank you for your insight and for your time-Maria
>>
I am at San Mateo college on Nov 3, but onto your more important question.
Yes, the economy was in a tailspin, and the WTC attack is making things
worse. The reasons aside, the question is would this be a good time to start
a business?
The only good reason for starting a business is you want change. Either you
are driven to make the world a better place by introducing material or
service improvements; or you are compelled to do so by circumstance. The
best companies are often driven by both.
When the economy was booming everyone's boat is being lifted, so people tend
to enjoy the ride. Certainly in a booming economy there are more customers
and they are looser with their credit cards, but why risk a good thing? So
we wait.
Then, when the economy busts, we say, "well, can't do it now... customers are
gone." This is somewhat true, but not entirely. I privately believe the
economy is worse off that anyone is letting on, and I am pretty confident
that those in charge will make matters far worse. I expect things to drop
rapidly over the next three years in a jagged pattern to heartbreaking lows,
and then take 15-20 years to get back to where we were in say, 1995. The
housing market is the next to get hammered.
In spite of all this, I expect to live better in the next two decades than I
did in the last two. Yes, sales and profits may drop in half for me, since
many of my customers are disappearing. But my expenses are dropping also.
Competing on design, there are always enough customers to satisfy and turn a
profit (if you listen), and what profits I earn will go much farther.
My mother is on a fixed income, but came home from a shopping expedition with
silk shantung pants, a silk blouse, and a suede jacket, all color
coordinated, all brand names, for about $65, regularly $550. The mid-level
markets are getting hammered, and the are unloading goods they know will not
sell.
Yes, there are some impacts... we've decided to hold off building a house for
another 2 years because high-end real estate is already dropping fast. Silly
to buy now. And we hold foreign currency so if the dollar gets hammered we
are OK. On the other hand, If we want to spend a few days visiting San
Francisco, hotels are cheap, car rentals are $15/day, and no waiting at any
restaurants or shows. Life is good.
I started this in this biz in 74, when we were coming out of a recession; the
80, 81, 82 recession were some of the most lucrative for me; and 1987 one of
my businesses was covered in BusinessWeek. Economic problems are like wind
to a sailor, you work with them. I could go on and on about what I am
personally doing, but it would not really apply directly to anyone else.
Life was fine during the boom, and we've actually made money on our
investments the last few years while many people have been hit hard. (I
never believed the "new economy" nonsense). What measures I take I learned
from others; you'll learn what you need to know as you proceed. If your
remain employed by otehrs, your welfare is pretty much up to someone else.
There is not a good time or a bad time to start a business. If one is
hesitating about the pros and cons of a given moment, then I suspect one has
not identified customers yet. Perhaps in this economy you yield only some
$40,000 your first year instead of $80,000 - but 1/2 of what would once of
have been goes a lot farther now. Also, for very many people in the dotcom
boom, there is no paid work available for their experience. For a lot of
people, 1/2 of something is the only option.
So, back to the fundamental question: have you identified customers? If so,
the time to start a business is perfect.
John Spiers
Sunday, September 30, 2001
Fw: A Different Perspective ... from the Dalai Lama
Sent: Friday, September 28, 2001 11:50 AM
Subject: A Different Perspective ... from the Dalai Lama
This is a statement from the Dalai Lama. I think it's worth sharing and
pondering so I'm sending it to you, with love.
Subject: A Different Perspective ...
Dear friends around the world.
The events of this day cause every thinking person to stop their daily lives,
whatever is going on in them, and to ponder deeply the larger questions of life.
We search again for not only the meaning of life, but the purpose of our
individual and collective experience as we have created it-and we look earnestly
for ways in which we might recreate ourselves anew as a human species, so that
we will never treat each other this way again.
The hour has come for us to demonstrate at the highest level our most
extraordinary thought about Who We Really Are. There are two possible responses
to what has occurred today. The first comes from love, the second from fear. If
we come from fear we may panic and do things-as individuals and as nations-that
could only cause further damage. If we come from love we will find refuge and
strength, even as we provide it to others.
This is the moment of your ministry. This is the time of teaching. What you
teach at this time, through your every word and action right now, will remain as
indelible lessons in the hearts and minds of those whose lives you touch, both
now, and for years to come. We will set the course for tomorrow, today. At this
hour. In this moment. Let us seek not to pinpoint blame, but to pinpoint cause.
Unless we take this time to look at the cause of our experience, we will never
remove ourselves from the experiences it creates. Instead, we will forever live
in fear of retribution from those within the human family who feel aggrieved,
and, likewise, seek retribution from them.
To us the reasons are clear. We have not learned the most basic human lessons.
We have not remembered the most basic human truths. We have not understood the
most basic spiritual wisdom. In short, we have not been listening to God, and
because we have not, we watch ourselves do ungodly things.
The message we hear from all sources of truth is clear: We are all one. That is
a message the human race has largely ignored. Forgetting this truth is the only
cause of hatred and war, and the way to remember is simple: Love, this and every
moment.
If we could love even those who have attacked us, and seek to understand why
they have done so, what then would be our response? Yet if we meet negativity
with negativity, rage with rage, attack with attack, what then will be the
outcome?
These are the questions that are placed before the human race today. They are
questions that we have failed to answer for thousands of years. Failure to
answer them now could eliminate the need to answer them at all.
If we want the beauty of the world that we have co-created to be experienced by
our children and our children's children, we will have to become spiritual
activists right here, right now, and cause that to happen.
We must choose to be at cause in the matter. So, talk with God today. Ask God
for help, for counsel and advice, for insight and for strength and for inner
peace and for deep wisdom. Ask God on this day to show us how to show up in the
world in a way that will cause the world itself to change. And join all those
people around the world who are praying right now, adding your Light to the
Light that dispells all fear.
That is the challenge that is placed before every thinking person today. Today
the human soul asks the question: What can I do to preserve the beauty and the
wonder of our world and to eliminate the anger and hatred-and the disparity that
inevitably causes it - in that part of the
world which I touch? Please seek to answer that question today, with all the
magnificence that is You. What can you do TODAY...this very moment?
A central teaching in most spiritual traditions is: What you wish to experience,
provide for another. Look to see, now, what it is you wish to experience-in
your own life, and in the world. Then see if there is another for whom you may
be the source of that.
If you wish to experience peace, provide peace for another.
If you wish to know that you are safe, cause another to know that they are safe.
If you wish to better understand seemingly incomprehensible things, help
another to better understand.
If you wish to heal your own sadness or anger, seek to heal the sadness or anger
of another.
Those others are waiting for you now. They are looking to you for guidance, for
help, for courage, for strength, for understanding, and for assurance at this
hour. Most of all, they are looking to you for love.
My religion is very simple. My religion is kindness.
Dalai Lama