Sunday, March 29, 2015

Canada Hearts USA Food

And so do their pets...
With a 25.6 percent market share in 2014, and a value of $17.2 billion, Canada remains by far the top destination for U.S. exports of high-value agricultural products.  These consumer-oriented agricultural products are foods typically sold directly in supermarkets or used in restaurants.  These high value exports support tens of thousands of jobs in the United States, and many of the suppliers are small and medium sized businesses.•  Wine and beer:  $644 million
•  Pet food:  $630 million
Check out the whole list in the report.  Pretty interesting.  There is a paragraph that describes beneficial changes due to NAFTA, with which I disagree, but otherwise this supports the trend toward food export.

Canada remains USA's #1 trading partner.

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Capitalists Hate Free Markets

The Capitalists wiped out free markets, and the chaos that followed ushered in the communists, leaving knowledge of the free market far behind.   So we get this plan from Vietnam:
Representatives from the two sides discussed the development of the capital market in Vietnam and solutions to help small- and medium-sized enterprises gain access to capital. They also considered the best ways in which to promote the application of modern technologies in the international payment process.
We don't need capital at the small and medium sized business level.  We need customers.  We do not need capital, we need voluntary, usury-free, asset backed credit facilities, something largely illegal now.

Places that do not make it illegal thrive.  Those that do, suffer.

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Saturday, March 28, 2015

Renaissance of Small Business Food Exports

The reports coming in are overwhelming, big business can't do it anymore.  Check out this gov't report:
Bar chart comparing the change in value and volume of U.S. process products vs. bulk exports from 2004-2013. Processed food has outpaced bulk exports in both categories.
http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/us-processed-food-exports-growth-outlook
What we see here is dollar volume vs price growth, in processed vs specialty.  Think Godiva v Hershey for processed foods, and heirloom corn v GMO corn.   Processed specialty is growing 3.5 times faster over the last decade, and in bulk, for bulk, we need to talk exponentials, since GMO is dying as heirloom is up 100 times.

Now this is a graphic example of a point I am making and that is it only takes a 1% drop in GMO sales to register as a 100% increase in heirloom sales into the vacuum.  You cannot handle 100% sales increase a year in the real world, so there is plenty of opportunity to go around.

Politics aside, there is nothing to stop this trend, it was built on false credit, which has ended as an option.  Now comes credit deflation.

The project of reducing GMO crop coverage with wholesome food is going to take "all hands on deck."  Exporting gives us the opportunity to effect this necessary replacement.  As we build market overseas, more land will be needed to produce the goods.  As more countries realize the danger of GMO, its sales will continue to drop.  At the same time, USA quality control and wholesomeness recommends our specialty foods to the world.  There is work for anyone who wants it.

At the bottom of the report is a recommendation to look into cross border ecommerce.  Elsewhere on this blog I have destroyed any pro-ecommerce argument, recently again here.

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Friday, March 27, 2015

WIRs and Price Setting

This is great stuff...
 The possibility remains that barter may have forced greater flexibility in network members' cash prices. But since WIR's
bylaws restrict membership to small and medium businesses (Defila 1994), members will usually have comparatively little
price-setting power.
Now careful reading this...  the fellow is analyzing the WIR for one purpose and using common definitions.  To derive the most benefit, you must translate the words he is using into correct usage.

He assumes price-setting is "he who can achieve the lowest price and defend it."  The error here is small businesses on the specialty level are the ones who set prices high, not low, and can defend it.

Lots to chew and absorb...  think of it: an alternative currency, in which SMEs extend asset-backed credit among themselves and no interest, and then covert to dollars in bulk to settle debts denominated in dollars.  It is counter cyclical for Gresham's law, that is in inflation it retreats, and deflation is advances.  This is a wonderful discovery, and possibly how the Swiss were economically able to withstand the Nazi interferences during WWII.  Much here to chew, to learn.

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LCL Renaissance

Another indication that the pendulum is swinging back is the apparent renaissance in LCL shipping.  Brian sends this in:
Other logistics professionals report increased use of alternative routing, if the shipper can afford the extra time it sometimes requires. "The biggest difference is Asia to the East Coast," says Stephen Dedola, chief operating officer of Dedola Global Logistics, an international freight forwarder headquartered in Los Alamitos, Calif. "It's an all-water route, but costs less than mini-landbridge," in which goods are delivered to a West Coast port and moved by train to their ultimate destination.
What is exciting is some of the FFs who started shipping for the Phoenicians are now orgainizing around this opportunity and necessity.  The opportunity is there is more new small business worldwide, there is less big business moving things.  It only takes a 1% drop in some big business trade to open up a 1000% increase vacuum for some small business.

This is all the result of deflation.  The bad news is your pension, paycheck and property is forfeit to forces no one can control.  The good news is making a living self-employed is opening up, if you want it.



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Thursday, March 26, 2015

Why USA Manufacturing Will Rebound

USA borrows half of what it spends, and has gone trillions in debt to fund wars, destabilization,  etc.  Our Keynesian economic policy, which the govt economists believe in, was expected by the powers to be to trap the Chinese: they make things for us, we pay them in funny money, they become enslaved to our funny money.

Ooooops. We went too far.  Currency needs to be tied to hard assets, money. Gold and silver.  The hegemon made a mistake.  They believed their own bad economics and redefined money and currency to help accomplish this.  Now comes this...
On March 24, 2015, Euronews broadcasted Business Middle East, in which Nour Al Hammoury from ADS securities, stated that if Chinese banks would join the new gold fix it would be less sensitive for manipulation. Having Chinese banks participate in the fix, would indeed be very welcome.
The Chinese communists know that money is gold and silver, not currency.  Note in the article the strange phrase "hyper-devaluating dollar cash-out " in the comments section.  What he means is credit deflation.

The Chinese outfoxed our economists by relatively backing their currency in gold.  USA currency is backed in fiat, asset-less nominal values.

Think Japan today.  A friend tells me Japan is 1/3rd off from last year, meaning my money will go 50% farther if I visit.  Importing from Japan just got a lot cheaper.  But his debts are all denominated in yen.  It takes fewer dollars to buy they yen to buy the same goods today as last year.

So my friend sees dollar deflation in Japan.  He feels nothing different in his life, its just it takes fewer dollars in this int'l transaction.  If and when USA products become "cheaper" more people will start making things for export.  Inside USA what dollars will be in demand will before dollar denominated debt, which people will either not take on or not be able to pay.  The demand for dollars will drop.

The implications here blow my mind, and I have been travelling, etc.  I'll work on this...

Update: as they said in the earlier point on the WIR, it is counter-cyclical.    Here is the confusion:  people think of the dollar as money, when it never was.  it is a tally of non-asset backed financials.  Think of real estate: is the bottom of the market low price?  No!  The bottom is no customers.  The dollar will not go into hyperinflation as long as it is freely convertible in to countless currencies and useful for paying debts, but it is not money, and it is fraudulent.  So it necessarily has to be liquidated, in teh sense of eliminated, at some point.    This will be well managed domestically if the WIR is allowed to grow, and it will take fewer WIRs to buy things in usa than dollars.  There it is, the deflation will be marked in USA WIRs, as the dollar is necessarily liquidated along with its bogus valuation based on non-assets plus the risible liability side of USA Pensions.  There it is...  and the Chinese are in charge now.

Ungh!  It is so sad capitalists do not understand economics as well as communists.  But neither will permit free markets.  Whaddya gonna do?  Keep a sense of humor I was advised yesterday.

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Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Alternative Currencies

You could not present me a more painful opportunity.   Now capitalism has had it, the worm has turned, as anyone who reads this blog regularly knows I believe credit deflation will be as dominant the next forty years and credit inflation was the last.  Credit inflation is evil, and deflation is the corrective.  This means the action of credit deflation will regress to the mean, that is to say go much farther that back to normal in its correction course.  in short, the exploiters who grew in credit inflation are going to lose more than they gained in the game.

Further, credit inflation was programmed in and managed.  Those playing that game for the last 40 years did quite well materially.  Sadly, it concentrated buying power in ever fewer hands, while crowding out the good that might have been, absent the malinvestment and misallocation of credit inflation.

But credit deflation is unmanageable.  The powers that be can do nothing about it.  You can force people to borrow by having a half-dozen conspirators cut a $4 billion bond deal to try to cut a useless tunnel through mud under Seattle, but a some point there are no buyers for the $4 billion in bonds, since the income stream to repay the bonds is doubtful.  We are there.

Unable to crush small businesses by cheapo EZ credit on long terms to buy massive quantity, and extend expensive credit to customers, McDonalds can no longer expand, nor can IKEA, or Best Buy, Walgreens or Lowes or Office Depot.  Walk through any of the above, and you can spot the problems - look how they are spacing product, the selection, and to the degree shopworn.  These stores have the wrong architecture, wrong computer systems, wrong location, wrong employees, and wrong business model for what is coming up.  Look for yourself, store closings, 2014 and 2015 already.

Look who is becoming big business: coffee and sandwich shops, liquidators and auto parts (DIY repair) and note how much the depend on overseas openings.

All this destruction at such a broad and deep swathe will create a vacuum into which small business can grow.  With credit deflation, the necessary vacuum at the small business level needs banking to match the opportunity, and even the savings and loans are out of the question...  we need a private credit (not monetary system) independent of the hegemon's lockdown, capitalist-exploitative system.  It needs to be usury (interest-free).  It needs to be focussed on members, and support manufacturing, quality construction, specialty services, the very victims of credit inflation.  it would be a good idea, but presently such initiatives are extremely marginal, like Kiva Zip and community sourced capital.

Are such efforts scaleable? Yes!


Small business, independent credit, interest-free...  founded in economic hard times...  counter-cyclical...

According to the article, interest-free for the first 18 years...

WIR was founded in 1934 by businessmen Werner Zimmermann and Paul Enz as a result of currency shortages and global financial instability. A banking license was granted in 1936.[1] Both Zimmermann and Enz had been influenced by German libertarian economistSilvio Gesell;[2] however, the WIR Bank renounced Gesell's "free money" theory in 1952, opening the door to monetary interest.[3]
The article does have some questions...

Is the WIR Franc Interest bearing or interest free? The article says: "the WIR Bank renounced Gesell's 'free money' theory in 1952, opening the door to monetary interest" and then later says: "These WIR obligations being interest free have a cost of zero" Thanks! --
Is the WIR Franc Interest bearing or interest free? The article says: "the WIR Bank renounced Gesell's 'free money' theory in 1952, opening the door to monetary interest" and then later says: "These WIR obligations being interest free have a cost of zero" Thanks! --Lbeaumont (talk) 14:52, 23 January 2014 (UTC)
But that is the thing.... If you are a young scholar interested in finance, make this your phd study... as Wayne Gretsky said, "just be where the hockey puck is going next" so if you are interested in banking, study this.

For those of us in business, here is a working model we need to adapt in the USA.  This is all free market stuff, and in capitalism it is mostly criminal since the patterns and practices are against freedom, economic justice, peace and prosperity.  Just look around.

But proceed we must, and see how far an independent credit system within the hegemon's borders can go.  WE can have everything good without the hegemon's credit inflation scam, we just need freedom.

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Online World Trade Courses

If you've been thinking of starting a business, another round of online world trade start-up classes will be offered here:

http://seattleteacherscollege.net/exfoassmbu.html

and

http://seattleteacherscollege.net/tradworinnin.html


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Do You See a Ski Sweater?

Look closely, it is there....



Do you like the color?

Nothing dyed to make my sweaters.

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Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Switzerland Has Two Currencies

Well, here is something new...  Switzerland has had a complementary financial system to the franc, called the WIR, since 1934.
Several macro-economic studies have proven that – contrary to what people expect – this second currency contributes significantly to the stability of the Swiss economy because it is spontaneously countercyclical. The Swiss data is of great quality, and was the basis for three peer-reviewed articles by Professor John Stodder that proves this.2 While conventional money is procyclical and requires central banks to try to stabilize the economy, the WIR case demonstrates that having a business-to-business currency circulating in parallel with the conventional money actually helps the central bank in stabilizing the economy!
I wish they would call the franc currency, not "conventional money," but in any case, does this not sound exactly like what I have been saying USA once had but has lost, B2B credit?


First I ever heard of the WIR, need to study that. But no mention that Hong Kong has three competing (maybe 4) currencies, all issued by private companies, as was once the normal?  


Mentioning those community share-barter ideas, he says -
In contrast, for currencies designed to deal with social issues, what’s the point of accumulating thousands of hour credits, for instance? If your objective is to create social capital in a community, credit markets don’t make sense. It’s not the way human interactions operate. As was documented by Michael Hudson and David Graeber4, relationships based on debt have driven enslavement, the opposite of what social capital aims at achieving. 
That may be true about trading lawn mowing for babysitting, but the slavery part of debt comes from usury, and state enforcement of the usury contract.  Usury cannot exist outside of state enforcement.  At any rate, quite the contrary, relationships in which credit (and its concomitant aspect, debt) can be both unitive and creative.

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