Folks,
After I sent part 2, the news announced 8 Chinese laborers were kidnapped in
Iraq and threatened with death if China did not forbid Chinese from working in
Iraq. I was hoping to predict they would be released, but I'm too late to
predict, since they have been released.
In May of 1999, USA bombed the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, taking out its
intelligence offices and killing several people. USA claimed it was a mistake,
but the Chinese believe it was intentional since the Chinese were retransmitting
the allies' communications to our enemies, making our bombing of the enemy
ineffectual.
In the chaos of of Iraq, there are also plenty of criminal opportunists
kidnapping for cash. There are many entrepreneurs trying to cash in on the money
flowing around. I suspect some witless start-up terrorist group grabbed the
Chinese hoping to get money or cooperation and found out it was not healthy to
do so. This is not the first time eight Chinese were kidnapped and released.
It is certainly easier to make war than to make business, and these wars are
only interesting in the measure they change the business patterns. Indeed, if
there is any hesitancy in launching a war, it is usually consideration of the
impact on business as to whether to go ahead or not.
So let's start our own businesses, and do our part in making peace. For my part
I look forward to the day I sit down in a Kabul restaurant and hear a tall
fellow in a turban say, "hello, my name is Osama and welcome to my
restaurant..."
Now back to Dr. Richebacher;
Blinded by the dogma of compelling mutual benefits; policymakers, economists,
investors and the American public flatly refuse to see this disastrous causal
connection. The alternative explanation is that America's extremely poor job
performance has its main cause in the highly desirable high rate of productivity
growth.
It is a convenient, but foolish explanation, reminding us of the early days of
industrialization, when people destroyed machinery for fear of unemployment. For
us, productivity growth that destroys millions of jobs is definitely suspect as
a mirage. Historically, strong productivity growth has always coincided with
strong capital investment involving, in turn, strong employment growth in the
capital goods industries.
That is presently, of course, precisely the missing link in the U.S. economic
recovery. (As an aside, in a healthy economy with adequate savings, cutting
labor costs generally takes place through investment, not through firing.)
***
Dr. Richebacher has this right, and note his litany of policymakers,
investors...etc... he too paints a bleak picture. Having seen situations
similar before, he advises elsewhere how to preserve one's wealth. Ahem... what
about we who wish to gain wealth to preserve? What about we who if not filthy
rich, would at least like to get slightly soiled with lucre?
Well, as employees we'll always be subject to the results of the whims of the
policymakers, investors, etc. for good or bad, and according to the most
reliable oracles, what is shaping up is bad.
The way out is harder than sitting tight... and it involves deciding what you
love to do and do that. Become expert on ski sweaters, their design and
construction. The worldtrade patterns in wool... the buying process and
retailing thereof. Become expert on the end-users of ski sweaters. Get to $1.5
million a year in sales, with $120,000 net profit for yourself... it is as easy
as I make it sound.. what slows some of us up is wasting time with the
unnecessary and the insufficient.
What also happens is you get sharp and clear in your thinking. You adjust your
activities to preserve your lifestyle no matter what the policymakers do to vex
your happiness. In a word, you get free. Free to do as you wish, free from
those who would decide you do their will.
I agree with the scary assessments of Gross and Grant and Richebacher and Buffet
and Soros, none of whom will suffer no matter what happens. They've all got
money and houses stashed all over the world. On the other hand, in spite of it
all, with my own business, I can get anything I want or need as well. So far so
good, anyway. In spite of the dire assessments, I don't see anything that says
the next 30 years won't be a lot better than even the last 30.
John
Saturday, January 22, 2005
Econ Outlook Part 3
Econ Outlook part 2
Re: [spiers] Econ Outlook part 2
John,
A variety of thoughts on your discourse here:
I was employed in the IT industry for more than 20 years until Intel decided to
outsource their work, and my job, to India - to both
contract labor as well as employees. I trained three India contractors to do
my one job. As an aside, three years later, as I am
told by friends still at Intel, that the Intel User community is still
complaining bitterly about poor performance by the hired help
there. This, I am also aware, is not unique to my job sent overseas. The
company apparently sees this as a good investment on
their part. Replace one fairly highly compensated employee with commensurate
benefits by hiring three lower paid employees with
limited benefits. The part of the equation that is obvious to many not at the
upper management level is that they are stirring the
pot. They have universally created ill will, hired a group of under
performers, and hampered the System and the productivity within
it.
***I agree and this makes a point I often try to make: when new factories are
built overseas, they are usually built to make different things in ways the
locals can make them.
There is cheap labor in India. There are people who can do an American's job in
India. But it is extremely rare to find a cheap labor Indian who can do an
American's job in India. If you can do an American's job in India, you are well
paid, and not available to outsourcers. I'd say short Intel.***
All well and good an outsider might say, this is a good business decision on
Intel's part (I use Intel as I have the most intimate
knowledge of them and saw what happened to the individual - me, and the
supported System). Companies need to stay competitive and
go to where the competition does, in order to compete.
*** Ultimately customers will decide how Intel is doing,,, but Cypress
Semiconductor Disagrees with intel, and is doing just fine.***
However, let's examine these next points to see where this has also taken us
at a larger level.
Intel was given tax breaks by the State or county or wherever to establish a
corporate office where they would grow a pool of local
workers - mostly highly compensated. The tax break would be nicely offset by
what Intel would introduce, namely the above mentioned
jobs, housing boom, and uptick to the economy that those many new employees
would bring the State and county (Sacramento County in
this instance).
Well, outsourcing began, whether by coincidence or design, after the Internet
Bubble burst. Thousands of workers, like me, were
displaced. Intel (and H-P and NEC, etc.) stayed competitive. The county or
State in turn: lost their Income Tax base from those
displaced workers, some of whom had to sell their houses and buy down, maybe
moving elsewhere. They lost some level of tax revenue
from the companies who are no longer maintaining or growing the employee levels
as before. Employees began to draw on unemployment
benefits, creating an additional burden for the State. Also, these companies
still maintained their tax advantage granted to them
by the State in order to establish the site where it is. Those displaced
workers also had to tighten their belts. Rather than my
Father's generation not buying toaster-ovens, now we are no longer buying SUVs
(maybe a good thing) and other expensive toys - thus
affecting those industries in one way or another.
***This is exactly right... people talk of "unsustainable environmental
practices," well this is an example of "unsustainable public policy practices".
Welfare for big biz always goes bad, always, and a lot of people get hurt. On
the other hand, this is history, and before organizing one's life around a
pinnacle of malinvestment, one ought to consider what one is getting into. I
had no part of the dot.com boom beyond recognizing it was 'tradable', and got in
on a truly worthless company at 22 cents that went to $26. I got out of tech in
March of 2000, and started shorting them. (I also bought about $5000 worth of
Metricom because I used and loved their wireless internet access... lost all 5
grand so I wasn't perfect)... How did I know what was going on? i didn't...
but being in biz, at trade shows, and asking older battled hardened
self-employed here and overseas, I was able to get a better view. I am not
smart, it's just that being in biz for yourself gets you to access those who are
smart.***
The types of jobs that were sent overseas will not return. It was simpler a
generation ago to tell displaced workers to retrain and
educate themselves for the more technological world. Some were capable of it
and did so. Now we are told the same thing. However,
technical degrees earned by those now in their 40's and 50's are no longer
adequate. Where do they retrain from here? There is no
time or reasonable ability for a 40 year old Head of the Household to return to
school and become a lawyer or doctor - besides
which, the odds of them getting hired are probably limited.
***Exactly... soo..self-employment is the best bet. Kill intel!***
Many of those jobs that are being reopened in the States, are being done so at
a lower wage and/or with limited benefits. A
specific case in point - An IT friend of mine, also formerly well compensated
but unemployed more times than not these past few
years, went to discuss a position installing network software with a local
business. He was offered $8 an hour, no benefits. He
said that was absurd and that he had children to put though college. The
interviewer shrugged his shoulders and said that
eventually someone would walk through the door willing to work for that pay.
We are becoming a country of consumers and raw materials producers.
***Exactly...and exactly where Russia is today... scary, isn't it?***
I just returned from a vacation in Vietnam. Every politician taking the oath
of office for the Senate or Congress, as well as the
upper levels of Administration, should be forced to visit the War Remnants
Museum in Saigon. With some historical perspective and a
visit there, it is less likely that we would be in Iraq right now.
***Yes, except those who were there voted to invade Iraq, even those who were
POW. Sadly, our secretary of state, Colin Powell made his reputation in
Washington by keeping the My Lai massacre a secret for quite a while until one
Seymour Hirsch finally broke the story. 40 years later it still goes on: Colin
Powell lies about Iraq, Seymour Hirsch catches him at it.***
Econ Outlook part 2
Re: [spiers] Econ Outlook part 2
John,
A variety of thoughts on your discourse here:
I was employed in the IT industry for more than 20 years until Intel decided to
outsource their work, and my job, to India - to both
contract labor as well as employees. I trained three India contractors to do my
one job. As an aside, three years later, as I am
told by friends still at Intel, that the Intel User community is still
complaining bitterly about poor performance by the hired help
there. This, I am also aware, is not unique to my job sent overseas. The
company apparently sees this as a good investment on
their part. Replace one fairly highly compensated employee with commensurate
benefits by hiring three lower paid employees with
limited benefits. The part of the equation that is obvious to many not at the
upper management level is that they are stirring the
pot. They have universally created ill will, hired a group of under performers,
and hampered the System and the productivity within
it.
All well and good an outsider might say, this is a good business decision on
Intel's part (I use Intel as I have the most intimate
knowledge of them and saw what happened to the individual - me, and the
supported System). Companies need to stay competitive and
go to where the competition does, in order to compete. However, let's examine
these next points to see where this has also taken us
at a larger level.
Intel was given tax breaks by the State or county or wherever to establish a
corporate office where they would grow a pool of local
workers - mostly highly compensated. The tax break would be nicely offset by
what Intel would introduce, namely the above mentioned
jobs, housing boom, and uptick to the economy that those many new employees
would bring the State and county (Sacramento County in
this instance).
Well, outsourcing began, whether by coincidence or design, after the Internet
Bubble burst. Thousands of workers, like me, were
displaced. Intel (and H-P and NEC, etc.) stayed competitive. The county or
State in turn: lost their Income Tax base from those
displaced workers, some of whom had to sell their houses and buy down, maybe
moving elsewhere. They lost some level of tax revenue
from the companies who are no longer maintaining or growing the employee levels
as before. Employees began to draw on unemployment
benefits, creating an additional burden for the State. Also, these companies
still maintained their tax advantage granted to them
by the State in order to establish the site where it is. Those displaced
workers also had to tighten their belts. Rather than my
Father's generation not buying toaster-ovens, now we are no longer buying SUVs
(maybe a good thing) and other expensive toys - thus
affecting those industries in one way or another.
The types of jobs that were sent overseas will not return. It was simpler a
generation ago to tell displaced workers to retrain and
educate themselves for the more technological world. Some were capable of it
and did so. Now we are told the same thing. However,
technical degrees earned by those now in their 40's and 50's are no longer
adequate. Where do they retrain from here? There is no
time or reasonable ability for a 40 year old Head of the Household to return to
school and become a lawyer or doctor - besides
which, the odds of them getting hired are probably limited.
Many of those jobs that are being reopened in the States, are being done so at a
lower wage and/or with limited benefits. A
specific case in point - An IT friend of mine, also formerly well compensated
but unemployed more times than not these past few
years, went to discuss a position installing network software with a local
business. He was offered $8 an hour, no benefits. He
said that was absurd and that he had children to put though college. The
interviewer shrugged his shoulders and said that
eventually someone would walk through the door willing to work for that pay.
We are becoming a country of consumers and raw materials producers. But we are
in the process of no longer being capable of
creating the finished products, and forever going forward, we will be dependent
on the rest of the world to provide us with the
products that we ultimately use and rely on. I can't imagine that this is a
good thing.
I just returned from a vacation in Vietnam. Every politician taking the oath of
office for the Senate or Congress, as well as the
upper levels of Administration, should be forced to visit the War Remnants
Museum in Saigon. With some historical perspective and a
visit there, it is less likely that we would be in Iraq right now.
Communism needed to go though the decades to shake itself out, and demonstrate
that on paper it may look good, but not in practice.
Vietnam did not need us setting them back a half century through a useless
protracted war. The US government tried to halt
Communism's spread in SE Asia, and failed in the attempt. Now Communism is
showing its age there and fading away on its own,
without our help. In the process, what we did to these people is almost
unspeakable. I never felt so ashamed of being an American
as I did after visiting that Museum.
Thanks for sharing your insights with us. You are welcome to share none, some
or all of what I have constructed here. Just say
that the author is anonymous.
alan
----- Original Message -----
From:
To:
Sent: Friday, January 21, 2005 1:50 PM
Subject: [spiers] Econ Outlook part 2
Richebacher goes on to say:
Nobody seems to realize the enormous damages that the egregious trade deficit
has inflicted on the U.S. economy. Indisputably, it diverts U.S. demand from
domestic producers to foreign producers, and this implies an equivalent
diversion of employment and associated income creation from the United States to
these countries. That is the manifest direct damage of the trade deficit to the
U.S. economy, the obvious main victim being the manufacturing sector, with
horrendous job and income losses.
***
Richebacher is arguing very narrowly and closely... I believe his strategy is
to take the lynchpin out of the concensus argument,
and thereby take down the whole argument that all is well economically.
I agree with his point above... notice he does not say "jobs" go overseas,
because he knows better. No sane manufacturer sends
"jobs" overseas, in the sense that today Larry Lunchbucket is making iron
t-valves in Detroit today and tomorrow Deng Tai Peng is
making them in Shanghai. What happens is when a USA manufacturer changes from
iron to graphite composite t-valves, in response to
customer demand, it's smart business to build the new factory in a growing
market like China rather than a dying market like USA.
So the factory owners build overseas. And hires locals to do the new job
(making graphite composite t-valves), a job never done in
USA anyway. But yes, Larry Lunchbucket is out of work. That is one problem.
The other problem is the policy wonks love the idea: we give the Chinese pieces
of paper (money, and ultimately T-bills) for very
valuable composite graphite t-valves. We can inflate the money anytime and make
the pieces of paper worthless, yet we keep the
composite t-valves. Those silly Chinese! We have them over a barrell!
Or not. Note the deal from the Chinese side in this scenario. The can now make
world class composite graphite t-valves. We do
not. We get trinkets and a cheap t-valve, they get the ability to make them for
themselves and the rest of the world. I had a
meeting not too long ago with a Japanese biz partner who reported Japan is
growing again, after a nasty 15 year slump... "getting to
be like the '80's again..." good days indeed for him. The difference is USA
participation is waning... the biz action is with
other Asians and Europeans. A year ago in Moscow I saw the stores were stuffed,
with european goods, nothing from USA. The world
is picking up, but not with USA as involved (at least, not in trade). What
trade we do have is largely subsidized goods, each
container exported harming our economy. I do not paint a positive picture.
Let me sketch a larger picture. There are two issues that shape geopolitics and
trade today:
First. Unfunded pension liability. Last year GM floated a $17 billion bond to
cover pension liabilities that otherwise cannot be
covered. Ford followed suit. Many other companies are doing likewise. Now the
problem with these bonds is one pays them back out
of profits. That is to say, to buy Ford or GM stock is to believe the company
will be profitable with this bond burden against
overseas companies with no such burden.
The US government pension guarantee adminstration is bankrupt. And no one is
seriously depending on seeing social security cover
retirement.
I was introduced to this problem in 1982, while negotiating the longshoremen
master contract (on management side, of course).
Everyone knew it was a problem back then, and one reason we had trucking
deregulation in the 80's was to let go bankrupt the many
companies who could not cover the unfunded pension liabilities. The court cases
lasted ten years, but the bottom line is plenty of
union members lost their pensions, which they paid into for years, and that's
just too bad. What scared me in all this is how the
powers that be figured out how to burn workers and get away with it. There was
no blood in the streets over this betrayal. No,
just a lot of truckers and such starting over, from scratch.
Now it is at the airlines. My next door neighbor is a senior fedex pilot. He
was with Flying Tigers before fedex bought Flying
Tigers. Flying tigers had 3000 employees and 3 billion in the pension fund.
Fedex had 30,000 employees and 6 billion. Fedex
wanted those pension funds. Now, he says, Fedex is asking pilots to report any
errors pilots make whatsover, with the principle
anything a pilot mentions himself first will not be used against him. Small
mistakes all pilots make, inconsequential... but the
pilots are convinced it will lead to a purge of $250,000/yr senior pilots to
make room for $30,000/yr newbies.
My nephew is a philosophy scholar, working on his Phd, and of course teaching
phil 101 at a prestigious state university. So,
naturally, he is belongs to the United Auto Workers union. No, he does not work
in a factory summers, the UAW is organizing young
scholars cuz they need growth in union dues and pension contributions. So they
are organizing at the universities. He has never
done a day of labor in his life, but the young doctoral candidate is a
card-carrying United Auto Worker.
In the meantime, University of Washington administrators had their extremely
lucrative pensions capped by the state legislature, and
a new pension system introduced (still very generous). "See taxpayers, how
responsible we legislators are?" Except they also wrote
in a rule that an adminstrator can quit at full pension, return the next day to
the same job, which the university is obliged to
keep for him, and get the new pension, too! An email went out encouraging all
administrators to do this.
The Catholic Church in USA ran into a pension funding problem when the numbers
of religious dropped precipitously, and by the '80's
there was not enough money to support all the old nuns. No problem, an appeal
was made and the convents were soon rolling in dough
from grateful past students. The protestant churches are not so lucky, they did
not have so many schools running. It has been
pointed out that ordaining homosexuals to the clergy has more to do with packing
pews and filling collection baskets to fund
pensions than any theological revelation.
We have more government workers than manufacturing workers in USA. Govt workers
pensions are backed by taxpayers. Labors' are not.
This will move to crisis mode.
And by the way, the longshoremen are doing just fine, because back then if one
wanted to, the problem could be solved.
Second. China. Or India. Or China and India. A quarter of the world's
population threw off communism, and are getting back to what
made China once great. India was better off than China, but they are getting
back to what made India once great too. They were
competitors for a while, and it remains to be seen if they will coexist
peacefully.
But China is another story. While Russia was using the Vietnam war to test by
proxy its' war technology against USA war technology,
China had 1 million men in North Vietnam to support the anti-american effort.
We lost the Vietnam war because of the support China
gave to Vietnam. When Nixon wanted out of Vietnam, he had to go to Beijing in
1971 to negotiate it with Chairman Mao.
After we left, and the Vietnamese behaved ungratefully toward china, china
decided to "teach Vietnam a lesson' by invading in
February of 1979 for a month. Well, with what we left behind in 75, Vietnam was
the third best equipped army in the world, and
China lost more men in a month than we lost in 10 years. (I was in Guilin on
Mayday 79, and saw the Chinese bandaged from wounds..
these were soldiers who had fought in the punishment exercise).
I recall this history to sketch two points: when China supports your enemies,
you'll have trouble. Also, China is not very good at
invading others, and they know it. They prefer more subtle resistance.
Did anyone notice that 3 days after George Bush hosted the Chinese president at
a very rare state dinner, we found Saddam Hussein?
As soon as we decided to invade Iraq, I predicted we would lose simply because
the Chinese are against us there. They want the oil
as bad as we do; China shares a border with Afghanistan, China has a huge Moslem
population, and it is not a bad thing from china's
point of view to have the islamist extremists focussing on USA. I believe the
"intelligence" behind the insurgency is supplied by
China, and I'll go further... i believe the reason we cannot find Osama Bin
Laden is because he slipped from Afghanisation into
China.
A few US soldiers killed every day worked in Vietnam, and it is working in Iraq.
On the other hand, Tom Ridge and Tommy Thompson
are surprised we have not had another terrorist event in USA. Our ports are
wide open, our food supply is permeable. Why haven't
we been attacked? I say because China will not allow it. The Iraq war is
sufficient in keeping USA bogged down and distracted,
anything more would be too much.
It was not always thus. When the brits were stealing from a weakened Chinese
dynasty by demanding compensation for some perceived
slight, the Americans took their share too. But the americans used to money to
build schools in China. Chinese kids are told this
to this day.
Every super-power in the world was felled by a weaker party who used the
technological advantage of the superppower against them.
Check those history books! If we get taken down, it will be by our own super
technology. Also, as the Chinese experienced 500 the
last 1000 years, a strong central government is easily captured, and thus the
whole nation, by foreigners. When the central govt
surrenders, they surrender you too.
I vote, literally, that we go back to where we left off, that is to These United
States as opposed to THE United States. It ain't
gonna happen, but in the meantime we can be as gentle as doves and wise as
serpents.
I agree with Warren Buffett, Sir John Templeton, Geo Soros, Bill Gross,
Richebacher and the very many other biz savvy investors,
that USA is going to get hammered financially. When, who knows? I've seen
something much lighter before in 79-83... the best
defense is self-employment.
John
Friday, January 21, 2005
Econ Outlook part 2
Richebacher goes on to say:
Nobody seems to realize the enormous damages that the egregious trade deficit
has inflicted on the U.S. economy. Indisputably, it diverts U.S. demand from
domestic producers to foreign producers, and this implies an equivalent
diversion of employment and associated income creation from the United States to
these countries. That is the manifest direct damage of the trade deficit to the
U.S. economy, the obvious main victim being the manufacturing sector, with
horrendous job and income losses.
***
Richebacher is arguing very narrowly and closely... I believe his strategy is
to take the lynchpin out of the concensus argument, and thereby take down the
whole argument that all is well economically.
I agree with his point above... notice he does not say "jobs" go overseas,
because he knows better. No sane manufacturer sends "jobs" overseas, in the
sense that today Larry Lunchbucket is making iron t-valves in Detroit today and
tomorrow Deng Tai Peng is making them in Shanghai. What happens is when a USA
manufacturer changes from iron to graphite composite t-valves, in response to
customer demand, it's smart business to build the new factory in a growing
market like China rather than a dying market like USA. So the factory owners
build overseas. And hires locals to do the new job (making graphite composite
t-valves), a job never done in USA anyway. But yes, Larry Lunchbucket is out of
work. That is one problem.
The other problem is the policy wonks love the idea: we give the Chinese pieces
of paper (money, and ultimately T-bills) for very valuable composite graphite
t-valves. We can inflate the money anytime and make the pieces of paper
worthless, yet we keep the composite t-valves. Those silly Chinese! We have
them over a barrell!
Or not. Note the deal from the Chinese side in this scenario. The can now make
world class composite graphite t-valves. We do not. We get trinkets and a cheap
t-valve, they get the ability to make them for themselves and the rest of the
world. I had a meeting not too long ago with a Japanese biz partner who reported
Japan is growing again, after a nasty 15 year slump... "getting to be like the
'80's again..." good days indeed for him. The difference is USA participation
is waning... the biz action is with other Asians and Europeans. A year ago in
Moscow I saw the stores were stuffed, with european goods, nothing from USA.
The world is picking up, but not with USA as involved (at least, not in trade).
What trade we do have is largely subsidized goods, each container exported
harming our economy. I do not paint a positive picture.
Let me sketch a larger picture. There are two issues that shape geopolitics and
trade today:
First. Unfunded pension liability. Last year GM floated a $17 billion bond to
cover pension liabilities that otherwise cannot be covered. Ford followed suit.
Many other companies are doing likewise. Now the problem with these bonds is
one pays them back out of profits. That is to say, to buy Ford or GM stock is
to believe the company will be profitable with this bond burden against overseas
companies with no such burden.
The US government pension guarantee adminstration is bankrupt. And no one is
seriously depending on seeing social security cover retirement.
I was introduced to this problem in 1982, while negotiating the longshoremen
master contract (on management side, of course). Everyone knew it was a problem
back then, and one reason we had trucking deregulation in the 80's was to let go
bankrupt the many companies who could not cover the unfunded pension
liabilities. The court cases lasted ten years, but the bottom line is plenty of
union members lost their pensions, which they paid into for years, and that's
just too bad. What scared me in all this is how the powers that be figured out
how to burn workers and get away with it. There was no blood in the streets
over this betrayal. No, just a lot of truckers and such starting over, from
scratch.
Now it is at the airlines. My next door neighbor is a senior fedex pilot. He
was with Flying Tigers before fedex bought Flying Tigers. Flying tigers had
3000 employees and 3 billion in the pension fund. Fedex had 30,000 employees
and 6 billion. Fedex wanted those pension funds. Now, he says, Fedex is asking
pilots to report any errors pilots make whatsover, with the principle anything a
pilot mentions himself first will not be used against him. Small mistakes all
pilots make, inconsequential... but the pilots are convinced it will lead to a
purge of $250,000/yr senior pilots to make room for $30,000/yr newbies.
My nephew is a philosophy scholar, working on his Phd, and of course teaching
phil 101 at a prestigious state university. So, naturally, he is belongs to the
United Auto Workers union. No, he does not work in a factory summers, the UAW
is organizing young scholars cuz they need growth in union dues and pension
contributions. So they are organizing at the universities. He has never done a
day of labor in his life, but the young doctoral candidate is a card-carrying
United Auto Worker.
In the meantime, University of Washington administrators had their extremely
lucrative pensions capped by the state legislature, and a new pension system
introduced (still very generous). "See taxpayers, how responsible we
legislators are?" Except they also wrote in a rule that an adminstrator can
quit at full pension, return the next day to the same job, which the university
is obliged to keep for him, and get the new pension, too! An email went out
encouraging all administrators to do this.
The Catholic Church in USA ran into a pension funding problem when the numbers
of religious dropped precipitously, and by the '80's there was not enough money
to support all the old nuns. No problem, an appeal was made and the convents
were soon rolling in dough from grateful past students. The protestant churches
are not so lucky, they did not have so many schools running. It has been
pointed out that ordaining homosexuals to the clergy has more to do with packing
pews and filling collection baskets to fund pensions than any theological
revelation.
We have more government workers than manufacturing workers in USA. Govt workers
pensions are backed by taxpayers. Labors' are not. This will move to crisis
mode.
And by the way, the longshoremen are doing just fine, because back then if one
wanted to, the problem could be solved.
Second. China. Or India. Or China and India. A quarter of the world's
population threw off communism, and are getting back to what made China once
great. India was better off than China, but they are getting back to what made
India once great too. They were competitors for a while, and it remains to be
seen if they will coexist peacefully.
But China is another story. While Russia was using the Vietnam war to test by
proxy its' war technology against USA war technology, China had 1 million men in
North Vietnam to support the anti-american effort. We lost the Vietnam war
because of the support China gave to Vietnam. When Nixon wanted out of Vietnam,
he had to go to Beijing in 1971 to negotiate it with Chairman Mao.
After we left, and the Vietnamese behaved ungratefully toward china, china
decided to "teach Vietnam a lesson' by invading in February of 1979 for a month.
Well, with what we left behind in 75, Vietnam was the third best equipped army
in the world, and China lost more men in a month than we lost in 10 years. (I
was in Guilin on Mayday 79, and saw the Chinese bandaged from wounds.. these
were soldiers who had fought in the punishment exercise).
I recall this history to sketch two points: when China supports your enemies,
you'll have trouble. Also, China is not very good at invading others, and they
know it. They prefer more subtle resistance.
Did anyone notice that 3 days after George Bush hosted the Chinese president at
a very rare state dinner, we found Saddam Hussein? As soon as we decided to
invade Iraq, I predicted we would lose simply because the Chinese are against us
there. They want the oil as bad as we do; China shares a border with
Afghanistan, China has a huge Moslem population, and it is not a bad thing from
china's point of view to have the islamist extremists focussing on USA. I
believe the "intelligence" behind the insurgency is supplied by China, and I'll
go further... i believe the reason we cannot find Osama Bin Laden is because he
slipped from Afghanisation into China.
A few US soldiers killed every day worked in Vietnam, and it is working in Iraq.
On the other hand, Tom Ridge and Tommy Thompson are surprised we have not had
another terrorist event in USA. Our ports are wide open, our food supply is
permeable. Why haven't we been attacked? I say because China will not allow
it. The Iraq war is sufficient in keeping USA bogged down and distracted,
anything more would be too much.
It was not always thus. When the brits were stealing from a weakened Chinese
dynasty by demanding compensation for some perceived slight, the Americans took
their share too. But the americans used to money to build schools in China.
Chinese kids are told this to this day.
Every super-power in the world was felled by a weaker party who used the
technological advantage of the superppower against them. Check those history
books! If we get taken down, it will be by our own super technology. Also, as
the Chinese experienced 500 the last 1000 years, a strong central government is
easily captured, and thus the whole nation, by foreigners. When the central
govt surrenders, they surrender you too.
I vote, literally, that we go back to where we left off, that is to These United
States as opposed to THE United States. It ain't gonna happen, but in the
meantime we can be as gentle as doves and wise as serpents.
I agree with Warren Buffett, Sir John Templeton, Geo Soros, Bill Gross,
Richebacher and the very many other biz savvy investors, that USA is going to
get hammered financially. When, who knows? I've seen something much lighter
before in 79-83... the best defense is self-employment.
John
Tuesday, January 18, 2005
Drawing Software
Re: [spiers] Drawing Software
Tamera,
Most of your local architectural and engineering firms probably use Autocad.
You might try contacting one or more of them and see if you can find a CADD
technician who's employer would allow him/her to "moonlight" for you,
perhaps on a royalty or contingency basis. In my everyday job, I manage design
and
construction, and deal with architectural and engineering firms. I
currently manage work being done by such firms in or nearby Alexandria, VA, St.
Louis, MO, and Sacramento, CA, plus several firms here in the Houston, TX,
area.
Salary rates don't vary a lot from place to place, but the hourly rate paid
to the individual varies from a low of about $14.00 to about $25.00 per hour
depending mostly upon level of experience. To buy the service through the
firm itself would likely cost you two to three times the hourly rate paid the
individual.
It may be a time-consuming effort for you to try to learn enough of any of
the more powerful software packages, such as Autocad, to be of significant use
to you. I'd personally try the architect/engineer staff route, but if
that's not for you, here's another possibility. I found a free software
package
online a few weeks ago and downloaded it. However, I have not had time to do
much with it, so don't know what it can do or not do. You may want to check
it out at _http://www.artifice.com/free/dw_lite.html_
(http://www.artifice.com/free/dw_lite.html) . I don't know if it will fall
into the "powerful"
category that I mentioned above.
Good luck! Write me at this address if I can help.
Bill O'Bar
Drawing Software
Re: [spiers] Drawing Software
Hi Tamera
My name is Henry and I completed the online class offered by J. Spiers not too
long ago.
My background is in Industrial Design and product development. I currently use
Rhino and
Vellum software to design my concepts. If you are still looking for designers,
maybe I can be of service. Or at least direct you to someone who can help.
You can reply to this email address.
Thanks
Henry
Tamera Young
John,
I am in the process of creating a design of my own. I was advised my the
manufacture to create my drawing using Auto CAD. Can you or anyone recommend
some good software that I can purchase that would help me give a 2D or 3D effect
that the manufacture would understand.
I am having a hard time hiring designers will to be paid with royalties (fee).
Therefore, I am sketching my own designs.
Tamera
Tamera Young
International Trade Manager
DS Trading Partners
16580 Plainview Drive
Markham, Illinois 60428
Business: 1-708-210-9791
Facsimile: 1-708-210-9574
Drawing Software
Re: [spiers] Drawing Software
You don't need autocad unless the manufacturer is
going to put the drawing in their own computer and use
the scaled drawing as part of their process.
There are quite a few programs that are much, much
cheaper then autocad that will read and write autocad
files if that is really required. I suggest going to
cnet or tucows or one of the other downlaod sites and
see if you can find appropriate software that has a
free trial. I do that all the time and sometimes wind
up buying and sometimes don't.
Bert
--- Tamera Young
wrote:
>
> John,
>
> I am in the process of creating a design of my own.
> I was advised my the manufacture to create my
> drawing using Auto CAD. Can you or anyone recommend
> some good software that I can purchase that would
> help me give a 2D or 3D effect that the manufacture
> would understand.
>
> I am having a hard time hiring designers will to be
> paid with royalties (fee). Therefore, I am sketching
> my own designs.
>
> Tamera
>
>
> Tamera Young
> International Trade Manager
> DS Trading Partners
> 16580 Plainview Drive
> Markham, Illinois 60428
> Business: 1-708-210-9791
> Facsimile: 1-708-210-9574
Drawing Software
RE: [spiers] Drawing Software
AutoCAD is the best and most universal software. I wouldn't waste any time
or money on anything else. Check out www.autodesk.com.
Keith
-----Original Message-----
From: Tamera Young [mailto:ds_tradingpartners@prodigy.net]
Sent: Monday, January 17, 2005 7:59 PM
To: spiers@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [spiers] Drawing Software
John,
I am in the process of creating a design of my own. I was advised my the
manufacture to create my drawing using Auto CAD. Can you or anyone recommend
some good software that I can purchase that would help me give a 2D or 3D
effect that the manufacture would understand.
I am having a hard time hiring designers will to be paid with royalties
(fee). Therefore, I am sketching my own designs.
Tamera
Tamera Young
International Trade Manager
DS Trading Partners
16580 Plainview Drive
Markham, Illinois 60428
Business: 1-708-210-9791
Facsimile: 1-708-210-9574
Drawing Software
RE: [spiers] Drawing Software
Hi Tamera,
I am an electrical designer using Autocad on a daily basis. The full blown
Autocad package which will do 3D drawing is about $4,000 I think. In my
niche (manufacturing support) I would estimate that 98% of drawings are done
2D. Autodesk, the company that makes Autocad has a very good 2D package
Autocad LT, which currently runs about $1,000.
I have read reviews of cheaper packages ($100-$300) that are compatible
with Autocad, but I have never tried any of them. What you are looking for
is ".dwg" file compatability. Since there is a really steep learning curve
involved with learning 3D Cad you might consider starting with a 2D package.
Gene Williams
-----Original Message-----
From: Tamera Young [mailto:ds_tradingpartners@prodigy.net]
Sent: Monday, January 17, 2005 7:59 PM
To: spiers@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [spiers] Drawing Software
John,
I am in the process of creating a design of my own. I was advised my the
manufacture to create my drawing using Auto CAD. Can you or anyone recommend
some good software that I can purchase that would help me give a 2D or 3D
effect that the manufacture would understand.
I am having a hard time hiring designers will to be paid with royalties
(fee). Therefore, I am sketching my own designs.
Tamera
Tamera Young
International Trade Manager
DS Trading Partners
16580 Plainview Drive
Markham, Illinois 60428
Business: 1-708-210-9791
Facsimile: 1-708-210-9574
Monday, January 17, 2005
Drawing Software
John,
I am in the process of creating a design of my own. I was advised my the
manufacture to create my drawing using Auto CAD. Can you or anyone recommend
some good software that I can purchase that would help me give a 2D or 3D effect
that the manufacture would understand.
I am having a hard time hiring designers will to be paid with royalties (fee).
Therefore, I am sketching my own designs.
Tamera
Tamera Young
International Trade Manager
DS Trading Partners
16580 Plainview Drive
Markham, Illinois 60428
Business: 1-708-210-9791
Facsimile: 1-708-210-9574