Here are the facts,
and then read the analysis...
If the U.S. economy really is improving, then why are big U.S. retailers permanently shutting down thousands of stores? The “retail apocalypse” that I have written about so frequently appears to be accelerating. As you will see below, major U.S. retailers have announced that they are closing more than 6,000 locations, but economic conditions in this country are still fairly stable. So if this is happening already, what are things going to look like once the next recession strikes?
Now, the analysis with which I disagree -
So why is this happening?Without a doubt, Internet retailing is taking a huge toll on brick and mortar stores, and this is a trend that is not going to end any time soon.
This cannot be the reason, since USA internet as a percent of all retail is about 6% and holding. And Amazon is not making money off internet retail, so if any category is in trouble it is internet retail. Look at Victoria Secret, and $1.5 billion in online sales is self-service checkout after VS mails out 400 Million catalogs. It's delusional to think the internet is a marketplace.
This is a bit better:
The truth is that middle class U.S. consumers are tapped out. Most families are just scraping by financially from month to month. For most Americans, there simply is not a whole lot of extra money left over to go shopping with these days.
And notice on that list are all discounters. We transformed from a materialistic society to a consumeristic society over the last 50 years (disposable iPods vs Zenith Home Stereo Console furniture.) Yes, there is not a lot of extra money to go shopping for crap, which is what USA specialized in and offered in the big box stores. And in any case, that "get big or get out" ukase can no longer be obeyed in a negative interest rate environment. But there is money being spent, on necessities, and we will see more durable amenities. Advantage small business, specialty. With negative interest rates, the game of early credit and crush the specialty category is now over. The pendulum is swinging back...
As you read this article, the United States still has more retail space per person than any other nation on the planet. But as stores close by the thousands, “space available” signs are going to be popping up everywhere. This is especially going to be true in poor and lower middle class neighborhoods. Especially after what we just witnessed in Baltimore, many retailers are not going to hesitate to shut down underperforming locations in impoverished areas.
Which means government-free urban renewal. Those empty stores cannot serve a more organic economy. In their place can come a transitional retail... for example a small business hardware store selling recycled home furnishings and fixtures alongside new. My interviews with small businesses are telling me already "biggest problem is we need more space!"
Well, guess what... whole lotta retail space coming on real cheap... get very short term leases... say one year, because you'll be able to threaten the landlord in a year to lower the rent or you'll go to that better offer across the street.
Caution: stay away form any city that has minimum wage laws at $15, etc... all expenses will fall, minimum wages are stuck, those cities
will become impoverished through socialism. Set up anywhere else.
I don't care what business you start, just get going. Get your money out of banks and portfolios, and into your own business. I've already done it... scary yes, but all of this bad news for big biz is wonderful for small biz, you.
Of course if international trade is required, i offer courses online and at various schools listed in the upper right there. Just get going! it will be slow to start, but you'll have proven your systems as business picks up. The next 40 years will be a renaissance of small business in USA.
Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.
