RE: [spiers] Bill Gates And IT Jobs
Everyone,
There is no url, I looked, but it was in the hardcopy issue of "red herring"
magazine of November 13, 2006 in the Publishers Letter (Alex Vieux) titled A
Tale of Statistics...
New studies show that china and India will not only force job displacement
but also cause middle class turmoil...
The tech sector should realize that most of the rapid growth is occuring
outside of the US--mostly in Japan, south Korea, China, and India....
The (U.S. small and medium sized businesses(SMBs) the Holy Grail of the tech
sector may be shrinking in the future....
...The US tech world still lags far behind the heyday in the US while it is
blossomig in Japan, china, and other International strongholds...
...Nasdaq will remain at its current level until the end of the decade or
beyond.....
My comments:
This is happening across the range of all technology including IT, medicine,
research, engineering, graphic design...America was first in all industries
for the most part...but are in a steep decline now. And also it is happening
to other professional groups like attorneys, accountants, business analysts,
writers......
And where the jobs are not outsoursed overseas they are lost by bringing in
H1b's who came because supposedly no Americans were available for the
job...but Americans are available now by far, yet no h1b has ever been sent
back to their home countries...and American industry is requesting congress
to increase the immigration levels of these "temporary workers"..
American students are ignoring the technical majors more and more because
they are informed what has happened to those professionals during the past
six years.
I believe this is all President Bush and Congress approach to free
trade...where everything business wants to do is ok... is wrong for America.
American foreign trade and H1b immigration policies are a farce. Many of us
in my generation have suffered job loss due to foreign outsourcing and the
H1b infection. I was an IT pro for 30 years and an officer in a professional
organization. I do not know anyone in the business anymore...most are trying
to start over...the older lucky ones retired. In the old days, up to 6
years ago, in the Big Apple, if you wanted to change jobs you would update
your resume and go to interviews and have several offers within 2 or 3
weeks. Now it is almost impossible to even get an interview. Today most of
the recruiters for IT employment or temporary work are Indian nationals. If
you get an interview you will meet Indian H1b's doing the interview even
though you are there for a job in america.
If this continues our children and grandchildren will not have any good jobs
in their future.
And not protecting the borders or prosecuting the employers of illegal
aliens is despicable. this widely and unfairly increased the supply of
workers and caused the salary and benefit levels to drop for millions of
American workers in landscaping, construction, meatpacking, supermarkets,
fast food, warehouses, hotels, restaurants, and other industries.
Today there are two societies in america...the Spanish and the english,
which is another mistake. We already lived through the 2 society mistake
before for more than 200 years until the 1960's civil rights movement. Today
many employers have ads for spanish or english-spanish speakers only...you
know no english only speaking person like most of us are going to get any of
those jobs. And the Spanish speaking society is getting bigger by more than
a million people each year.
Manufacturing has seen this happen in even a bigger way and nothing has been
done to help the blue collar workers and industries. My blue collar work in
the 1960's paid for my college education and living expenses which probably
meant they went twice as far than the blue collar wages of today. In fact my
full time tuition for an out of state student was $250 and was $500 at its
highest and in state undergraduate tuition was free. Tuition is out of hand
today. Most of the recent college graduates that I know now have tens of
thousands of debt and feel lucky to obtain sales jobs or highway store
assistant management positions and are behind in their repayments.
The Spanish speakers are the largest minority in America and will influence
more jobs. African-americans already lost any privileges they may have won
in the past. Already thousands of English only teachers have been fired to
be replaced by ESL Spanish-English teachers. How soon do you think it will
be before millions of others will be fired because they do not speak Spanish
like police, firemen, ambulance workers, more teachers, other government
workers, and business workers? Press 1 for english, press 2 for spanish.
I think it is a good first step that the Democrats took the Senate and
House...many elected officials are outraged too about the economy and
immigration...The more critical time is to find a creative president with a
positive vision for America within the next two years. The current leaders
for President (McCain, Hillary, and Guiliani) are all part of the problem
and no good. All of us have to get involved actively in the political
process.
This past Tuesday, President Bush took a thumping by losing Congress to the
Democrats...I think voter rage will continue and build to the Presidential
election in 2 years and probably longer. In the next election both the
Republicans and the Democrats up for re-election are at risk if Congress and
Executive do not accomplish some meaningful positive things between now and
then.
Bob
-----Original Message-----
From: spiers@yahoogroups.com [mailto:spiers@yahoogroups.com]On Behalf Of
John Spiers
Sent: Wednesday, November 08, 2006 3:22 PM
To: spiers@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [spiers] Bill Gates And IT Jobs
Folks,
Bill Gates says we are not graduating enough IT people in the West,
meaning we'll cost too much on a
worldwide basis...
http://tinyurl.com/y5823t
Look for more IT work going overseas...
John
Thursday, November 9, 2006
Bill Gates And IT Jobs
Re: class week 4
Re: [spiers] Re: class week 4 and packaging
On Wed, 8 Nov 2006 23:51:29 -0800 (PST), M A Granich
:
>
> Can designing a unique mug and telling a story be the
> innovation?
***If the customer says so, sure...***
I think coffee falls under a raw
> commodity category and John's model cannot be applied
> to such an item.
***Everything has both a commodity and specialty version. Frying pans and corn.
No
difference.***
You can't really change the raw
> coffee bean, or raw lumber, or sugar, or corn, oil,
> etc...
***Yes, one can and does. I have in hand a brochure from a grower who redesigns
fruits on a
regular basis to specification. Wells Nursery is this particular company, one
of many. You
and I may not be able to do it, but many can and do.***
John has the example of the Apple Juice with
> Japanese preference vs American preference, but
> innovating a raw food, like the Seedless Watermelon,
> is a monumental task. It would take years to develop
> a new coffee bean that is say...less bitter. It's
> just not practical I think for a small importer.
***Which is less time than microsoft takes to upgrade a program. Time is what
it is...***
>
> But can your contribution be the packaging of the
> commodities? Why can't Efren approach retailers with a
> story about a special Mexican coffee bean grown only
> in the mountains outside of Patzcuaro, picked by
> indigenous Indians, served in an innovative coffee
> bean shaped mug (that is made in China)? If there is
> nothing else like it on the market, and several
> retailers like the packaging concept, then that should
> be the first milestone right?
***Correct, it up to customers...***
OR, am I violating a
> Spier principle?
>
*** Anthony, you'll persuade me that these are my ideas if you keep this up, and
I'll end up
patenting it all... there is nothing I know or say that was not given to me by
someone
else...there is no spiers principle, it's got nothing to do with me.***
John
Wednesday, November 8, 2006
Bill Gates And IT Jobs
Folks,
Bill Gates says we are not graduating enough IT people in the West, meaning
we'll cost too much on a
worldwide basis...
http://tinyurl.com/y5823t
Look for more IT work going overseas...
John
Tuesday, November 7, 2006
Why Not Start - Redux
Re: [spiers] Why Not Start - Redux
Paul,
Thank you for your kind words... back in the 70's there were many small
importers aroound, and we all helped each other. When there were questions, we
could call each other and ask. That changed over time.
I started writing down questions and answers, and "how to". As I started my own
business, I decided I'd write a book to answer those questions, but I needed to
test out the material, hence the teaching. The topic was importing, because
that is what I know and what the question was, to me anyway.
But you are right, importing is NOT a business. You can import canned peaches
and stack them in your basement. That is not a business. You can preserve
peaches in your basement, that is not a business. When you sell the imported
peaches, or the preserved peaches, then you are in business. So importing is
just a function that many concern themselves, probably rightly perceiving any
small biz is likely to have an int'l component.
It took 16 years of teaching and writing, as a sort of sideline, to produce the
book. (and as a side note, in the last 20 years, the teaching has brought in
about $500,000, working 20 or so saturdays a year, not to mention all sorts of
write-offs...)
So the business has always been important, with the importing mechanics getting
easier and less critical. With the book written, the next question was how come
people don't actually start busiensses as often as I think think they should...
interesting problem.
I think it has to do with polikcy and leadership, and peoples reaction to all
that... so now it is interesting to keep applying the principles in new and
different areas, and study more of the how come and the whyfor.
As to teaching the "existential and practical aspects of self-employment" I
think that will end up in the next book, since I'll need to link being self
employed and int'l policy, which may be a bit of a stretch.
But first I think I'll try to bang out a book called "How Writers Now Drive a
Truck Through a Loophole Amazon & Google Offers: Book Song Film" In essence it
will be a "how to" leapfrog over Print On Demand publishing and become your own
publisher, essentially recapping what I did with my book, sort of a small biz
int'l trade case study. Amazon allows its suppliers to offer books for presale
not yet written. Talk about getting orders before you buy the goods! I'll be
just like Microsoft!
John
John, this kind of discussion is perfect grist for folks like us. I
need to ask you what you believe you are teaching - is it importing, or
is it self-employment? Of course, we know that you teach both, but
aren't they separate concepts?
I wonder if you would be more effective teaching first (I.e., in earlier
chapters), the existential and practical aspects of self-employment.
That is the primary subject of the thread, below. The concept that you
discuss is radical and unique, and therefore valuable and could be a
course by itself.
The importing part of it is the "mechanism" for achieving your ends. As
a matter of fact, it is only one of several mechanisms that one could
use.
The reason I originally found you, was that I had decided that I wanted
to "import" and set out to learn the mechanics. I backed into it, as it
were. And you turned me around.
So maybe your book should be "Zen and the Lifestyle of Self-Employment"
with a byline of "Importing as a Small Business".
On Tue, 7 Nov 2006 11:12, John Spiers wrote:
> Folks,
>
> Enrollments are way down all over in continuing education, and over the
> 20 plus years I’ve
> been teaching that has meant we are either at the top or the bottom of
> an economic cycle. I
> suspect it now means a top (we are headed downward) since the other big
> recession
> indicator, the inverted yield curve, is signaling recession next year.
> Well, it’s about time I
> slimmed down.
>
> Enrollments jump up to their normal levels as the economy is going down
> or up.
>
> Last Saturday I taught in Marin to six people, a tiny group, so we had
> time to develop some
> arguments. One woman presented her case: she has done well in mortgage
> banking, she
> wants to get out, she considers Marin the best place on earth to live
> (I tend to agree), she is
> approximately 40 years old with a hefty mortgage. She wants $6,000 net
> per month, as a
> start and minimum.
>
> She grasped my standard argument, that as a practical matter once
> you’ve decided your
> passion, you then work out what the net profit is in the industry she
> has chosen. Say the net
> was 10%, then to yield the $72,000 yearly income she wants, she’d
> have to have sales of
> $720,000.
>
> We further covered how it is not so much a question of income, as a
> question of lifestyle, that
> working closely with your CPA, the business pays for much, as a
> write-off, in effect cutting
> many expenses by 1/3rd. Also, such anomalous events as pursuing a
> degree can become a
> business expense. (“Salary�? in a small business is rather
> problematical - the more you pay
> yourself, the more you lose to taxes, what any significant other may
> earn could affect tax
> strategies; such issues may relegate “what you take out�? to a minor
> consideration).
>
> The $720,000 struck her as too high to be reasonable, and I showed her
> how in a multi-
> trillion dollar economy it was likely, not unreasonable. We also
> covered how if was
> unreasonable for her, then perhaps it would not be too difficult for
> her and a partner to gross
> 2 times $720,000, or $1.4 million, since partnerships thrive better,
> faster than sole
> proprietors.
>
> She claimed to have a “passion for making money�? (I’ve heard
> this counter-argument many
> times) and she could not see how a “lifestyle�? come what may, could
> trump the security of
> $72,000 net.
>
> Another person chimed in that she had followed her passion, and skied
> for 10 years, and now
> she was poor, no job, no prospects, so she moved to San Francisco to
> make enough money to
> start a company that did fair trade with Guatemala.
>
> We got to the point of the seminar where I point out “we decide what
> field we will enter, but
> our customers decide what we will sell�? when we developed this point
> further.
>
> Yes, it is critical that we love what we do... passion has to be there,
> but it is the “serving
> others�? that is the heart of the alternative lifestyle, not the
> passion, not the money. When
> you take a salaried job with a conservator company, you are exchanging
> your best 40 hours
> per week to further other peoples goals, and you buy as much
> “lifestyle�? as you can with what
> money you get from working, with what time you have left over. In
> self-employment, the
> first moment is lifestyle, your entire life is your “work,�? you are
> still serving others, but you
> are serving up “you�? and a “you�? with your energy and
> creativity unleashed.
>
> The skier demonstrated why passion is not enough. In the ten years she
> was a ski bum, she
> never acted on any of the problems her ski-bum peers acted on, and in
> so doing she never
> helped others. Her plan to help the Guatamalans may be more of the
> same. She envisions a
> very small business selling things made by Guatemalans, organic
> materials and fair trade. I
> wonder if the Guatemalans want the work, or they would prefer making
> silk ball gowns for
> the super wealthy and living in air-conditioned comfort? Do the
> Guatemalans have a say in
> the future she envisions for them?
>
> The important difference is working for others is the world does not
> benefit from your
> creativity, energy, intelligence as it would if you were more open to
> the world as in self-
> employment. The freedom from the restrictions of employment is at the
> same time the
> freedom to answer another calling. Our creativity is tempered by
> interaction with the “other.�?
> The root of the word “obey�? is “to listen, to hear.�? The
> difference is this: in working for
> others, you obey the boss. In self-employment, you obey the world.
>
> She said she understood she was resisting the “Zen�? of my argument
> (people talk like that in
> Marin) She wished she had started the business when she was twenty.
> That when it occurred
> to me another aspect of the problem of starting a business.
>
> There is no knowing what self-employment will look like in advance. One
> of the problems of
> free market economics is it can explain how come government provision
> of roads leads to
> traffic jams, unconscionably high death and maiming rates, and other
> messes, but it cannot
> predict what would happen if there is a free market. We can only say
> with confidence born of
> experience, it will be more, better, cheaper and faster (with “ zero
> emissions cleaner�? and
> “safer�? defining “better�? in the case of roads).
>
> There is no knowing if $72,000 per year will matter, whether living in
> Marin will be important,
> or any other aspect. Self-employment is an alternative universe, and
> there is no way to
> properly pack for that trip since you have no idea what landscape will
> look like. Anchorage
> may prove to be the ideal home after she gets going serving others in a
> field she is
> passionate about. You cannot “know�? unless you “do.�? And
> whether you do this at 20 or 60
> makes no difference at all, since lifestyle is not about age. There is
> the existential angst, or
> where the leap of faith is required.
>
> A stream of stories as to how life might look if you move to
> self-employment might help, and
> of course I recommend Forbes magazine ( http://tinyurl.com/yhr4dz ) for
> a constant flow of
> those stories. I am keeping you apprised of anything I do that may be
> interesting or useful
> for my part as encouragement. There is one piece left to address, and
> that is the fear of
> failure.
>
> John
>
>
>
> Compete on Design!
>
> www.johnspiers.com
Why Not Start - Redux
Folks,
Enrollments are way down all over in continuing education, and over the 20 plus
years I�ve
been teaching that has meant we are either at the top or the bottom of an
economic cycle. I
suspect it now means a top (we are headed downward) since the other big
recession
indicator, the inverted yield curve, is signaling recession next year. Well,
it�s about time I
slimmed down.
Enrollments jump up to their normal levels as the economy is going down or up.
Last Saturday I taught in Marin to six people, a tiny group, so we had time to
develop some
arguments. One woman presented her case: she has done well in mortgage banking,
she
wants to get out, she considers Marin the best place on earth to live (I tend to
agree), she is
approximately 40 years old with a hefty mortgage. She wants $6,000 net per
month, as a
start and minimum.
She grasped my standard argument, that as a practical matter once you�ve decided
your
passion, you then work out what the net profit is in the industry she has
chosen. Say the net
was 10%, then to yield the $72,000 yearly income she wants, she�d have to have
sales of
$720,000.
We further covered how it is not so much a question of income, as a question of
lifestyle, that
working closely with your CPA, the business pays for much, as a write-off, in
effect cutting
many expenses by 1/3rd. Also, such anomalous events as pursuing a degree can
become a
business expense. (�Salary� in a small business is rather problematical - the
more you pay
yourself, the more you lose to taxes, what any significant other may earn could
affect tax
strategies; such issues may relegate �what you take out� to a minor
consideration).
The $720,000 struck her as too high to be reasonable, and I showed her how in a
multi-
trillion dollar economy it was likely, not unreasonable. We also covered how if
was
unreasonable for her, then perhaps it would not be too difficult for her and a
partner to gross
2 times $720,000, or $1.4 million, since partnerships thrive better, faster than
sole
proprietors.
She claimed to have a �passion for making money� (I�ve heard this
counter-argument many
times) and she could not see how a �lifestyle� come what may, could trump the
security of
$72,000 net.
Another person chimed in that she had followed her passion, and skied for 10
years, and now
she was poor, no job, no prospects, so she moved to San Francisco to make enough
money to
start a company that did fair trade with Guatemala.
We got to the point of the seminar where I point out �we decide what field we
will enter, but
our customers decide what we will sell� when we developed this point further.
Yes, it is critical that we love what we do... passion has to be there, but it
is the �serving
others� that is the heart of the alternative lifestyle, not the passion, not
the money. When
you take a salaried job with a conservator company, you are exchanging your best
40 hours
per week to further other peoples goals, and you buy as much �lifestyle� as you
can with what
money you get from working, with what time you have left over. In
self-employment, the
first moment is lifestyle, your entire life is your �work,� you are still
serving others, but you
are serving up �you� and a �you� with your energy and creativity unleashed.
The skier demonstrated why passion is not enough. In the ten years she was a
ski bum, she
never acted on any of the problems her ski-bum peers acted on, and in so doing
she never
helped others. Her plan to help the Guatamalans may be more of the same. She
envisions a
very small business selling things made by Guatemalans, organic materials and
fair trade. I
wonder if the Guatemalans want the work, or they would prefer making silk ball
gowns for
the super wealthy and living in air-conditioned comfort? Do the Guatemalans
have a say in
the future she envisions for them?
The important difference is working for others is the world does not benefit
from your
creativity, energy, intelligence as it would if you were more open to the world
as in self-
employment. The freedom from the restrictions of employment is at the same time
the
freedom to answer another calling. Our creativity is tempered by interaction
with the �other.�
The root of the word �obey� is �to listen, to hear.� The difference is this: in
working for
others, you obey the boss. In self-employment, you obey the world.
She said she understood she was resisting the �Zen� of my argument (people talk
like that in
Marin) She wished she had started the business when she was twenty. That when
it occurred
to me another aspect of the problem of starting a business.
There is no knowing what self-employment will look like in advance. One of the
problems of
free market economics is it can explain how come government provision of roads
leads to
traffic jams, unconscionably high death and maiming rates, and other messes, but
it cannot
predict what would happen if there is a free market. We can only say with
confidence born of
experience, it will be more, better, cheaper and faster (with � zero emissions
cleaner� and
�safer� defining �better� in the case of roads).
There is no knowing if $72,000 per year will matter, whether living in Marin
will be important,
or any other aspect. Self-employment is an alternative universe, and there is
no way to
properly pack for that trip since you have no idea what landscape will look
like. Anchorage
may prove to be the ideal home after she gets going serving others in a field
she is
passionate about. You cannot �know� unless you �do.� And whether you do this
at 20 or 60
makes no difference at all, since lifestyle is not about age. There is the
existential angst, or
where the leap of faith is required.
A stream of stories as to how life might look if you move to self-employment
might help, and
of course I recommend Forbes magazine ( http://tinyurl.com/yhr4dz ) for a
constant flow of
those stories. I am keeping you apprised of anything I do that may be
interesting or useful
for my part as encouragement. There is one piece left to address, and that is
the fear of
failure.
John
Gambian Tailor
Folks,
Actually he is Senegalese, but I love stories like this:
http://tinyurl.com/ybmgcz
It takes intelligence and industry to survive in this milieu, and this fellow
has both. He and
his tools are heavily taxed, yet he pushes on, and the one thing he needs most,
electricity,
the government cannot provide consistently.
People tell me "overpopulation" is the problem in Africa. Really? In the face
of predatory
government and official incompetence, this fellow thrives as well as can be. I
wonder what
Gambia would look like in 20 years if there was a free market in electricity and
garments. I
suspect his house would be nicer than mine, and we'd be talking about the
"economic threat
from Africa."
John
Monday, November 6, 2006
Allopathic Export
Folks,
More on export of services, medical division, but I wonder if anyone thought of
taking over
an old drive-in theatre and outfitting it with '56 chevy's to achieve the same
result?
http://tinyurl.com/ybvez5
John
Re: class week 4
> 1. Mexican Coffe bean and Thea
> I'm a totally coffe lover and I have so much passion for my culture and
traditions and I
really would like to expand that. S.... maybe everytime someone buys a cup of my
mexican
coffe "serve the coffe in a very unique well designed mug with the name of the
my
coffe...FREE!!!!! so everyone can taste the coffe even just to get that unique
mug FREE...
>
***AS to whether people want a lecture or a story with the coffe and a free mug
is
somethingonly the people you hope to sell to can tell... This sound slike
something Efren
wants to do, not what the customers are calling for...
Efren, you have an idea of Efren in the middle of a business that sells coffee,
promotes
Mexico and makes people happy. This is good, especially "makes people happy"
part. But it
cannot be what YOU think they want, it has to be what THEY say they want. You
can pick
coffee, but you have to make people happy with your coffee the way THEY want you
to make
it. There is no reason you cannot beat starbucks or anyone else, if you start
with the problem
people experience with coffee.
I know when I imagine myself in some role living some fantasy I either never
quite get there,
or worse yest, I get there and it is an unhappy place. On the other hand, the
few times I
manage to work at serving others, unexpectedly good things happy. It is quite a
mess, this
thing called slef-employment, but it sure beats working for a living. Help
people with
coffee.***
> 2. I being doing interior and furniture design for the last 9 years and I
loved it and I still
do...that's my passion and my professional carrer and I like to do something
with a piece of
funiture...I know this can be more complicated...
> I worked in the retail furnishing industry and we ALWAYS have a little
problem with some
desks.....THE HIGH, some people around here are very tall...I telling you
because I saw that
myself and I dealed with them always complained about that, so we ended up
custom made
one for them....only because of the high.
> so I like to workr in that too.... design a desk higher than 30" ....but
where and how to
start...?
>
> ANY SUGGESTIONS.....?
****Start with the retail stores that you think would sell such a desk...try to
buy your
idea...see how many upscale stores say your desk is a good idea and does not
exist... report
back on the reults...
John