Monday, January 3, 2011

No Solution Without Falling Prices

Until and unless we see prices falling precipitously, almost all prices, we will not have the correction we need to clear out and start over.  The bank bailouts were to prevent the price of financial stocks to drop, wiping out an unsustainable banking segment, which in turn would have benefited the sustainable banking segment, and we'd be well on our way to recovery.  We are now well  on our way to more woe and likely war.

People assume China is in trouble for the same reason USA is, monkey business interest rates and printing too much currency. They will get into trouble too.  Of course, but so what.  China will go down financially when USA goes down, but China will have manufacturing capacity, skilled labor, industry and credit.  USA will be a world-leader in searching luggage.  Our other technology, self-reporting internet, anyone can copy and will.  If we get into war, China has whole cities, empty, ready to populate if they lose any.

China is not trapped by what we owe them.  I haven't heard a single person ever say this, but it is clear to me they are taking that USA debt, which is negotiable, and investing it around the world.  If and when the system goes down, and it will, we'll know because we'll see prices falling, the usa bonds China "owns" will be worthless.  But who cares, the bonds back infrastructure projects world wide, all pointing to China trade.  Any chance of USA trying to make claim that a Peruvian railroad is owned by USA due to it being back by USA bonds will be as doubtful as a USA bank trying to foreclose on a USA homeowner.  Prove it.  When USA has nothing to offer, and trade with China pays, then the bonds are irrelevant.  Peru will trade with China.

Because we constantly renew unemployment benefits, staff pretend work like TSA, FDA, DEA, USDA, etc, and bail out, bail out, bail out...  the drop and devastation will be exponentially worse than it has to be.  The longer we wait, the worse it gets.

We have horrible overcapacity and malinvestment in USA.  We could judo flip the Chinese right now by announcing we are withdrawing troops worldwide, and dropping our subsidies and restrictions, re-embracing free markets, cutting taxes concomitantly.  Now, warmongers will scream "this is isolationism..."  No, just USA will return to when we engaged people worldwide as small business, person to person, not militarily, as in death from the sky.  It is the warmongers of the last 100 years that caused USA isolation in the world today.

Of course, since we measure GDP or "wealth" in terms of how much money each person spends, including government workers, a period of fewer government workers, and widespread falling prices as people re-allocate to genuine market needs, USA would appear to be terribly poor while in fact it was recovering.

A free market assumes private currency, in in such a regime there would be no way to subsidize huge taxpayer ripoff payments to big pharma, big computer, big auto, etc.  Those industries would die, as news replacements flowered.  Unemployment would drop to near zero.

When we get back to wealth defined in terms of access to ever-expanding goods and services made possible by free market division of labor, we'll see we are getting ever better off.  Now, we are told, as things are getting worse, that the models shows we are getting better off.

In USA, people spend about 10 billion a year on professional sports, 10 billion a year on porn, 10 billion a year on video games.  None of these would likely be any where near what they each are, if they actually had to pay for the means of delivering their product (or is it a service.)  At the same time, the time spent by people viewing what they buy for those billions, crowds out time spent on better options, like a good musical or a high school sporting event. (It really is quite good, and only 90 seconds, check it out.)

Of course, too many people want the security of monday night football, tuesday night porn, wednesday night video game, obviously, to change anything.

So we need to carve out a part of USA for those who wish to do business in a free market.  A place were prices can fall, and recovery can happen.


1 comments:

Anonymous said...

Nice example of HS sporting event! I'm not even a football fan but that was worth watching.