Saturday, September 17, 2011

Where Will Federal Employees Turn

It is a complicated business, but I've been following unfunded pension liabilities since it was a contract issue in the 1982 Longshoremen negotiations.  I was on the management side of the table, although I am a C Longshoreman.

The USPS is getting ripped off, or at least their pensions are, in an outrage as part of this federal economic policy failure.  Since the Post Office contribute real money they take in, they are first in line to be ripped off.  In time the powers that be will get around to everyone in the Fed govt, because, really, to whom will the turn.

People say that the USPO does not charge enough, and that is why it is going "bankrupt."  Well, it is likely that they have way too much overhead, and there is the problem.  People say try to get a letter mailed for 44 cents by UPS or fedex.  That misses the fact that USPO has a monopoly on first clss mail.  It is likely that UPS and fedex would deliver first class mail at no charge, for the advertising possibilities on UPS provided envelopes.  But who knows what a free market in postal service would look like.

A free market transition to a free market postal service, one that would protect the postal workers pensions, would be for the USGov to quit claim all assets and liabilities of the USPO to the USPO pensioners.  The pensioners would be given all USPO offices, machinery, equipment, any and all assets, as well as the liabilities.  This would be in the form of stock, which could be freely traded on the NYSE. The pensioners would then either sell their stock of get active in hiring new management.  Things would sort out better then now.

This method could be used to corporatize any govt function.  As things are progressing now, fed pension holders are going to get completely ripped off.


Friday, September 16, 2011

2012 All Babe Elections

Has no one noticed that the electorate is trending toward gorgeous women leaders?  Or maybe the feminist movement has produced a crop of Elizabeths, first rate leaders, albeit not progressive, but effective.  Or have the electorates so tired of exceptionally stupid males as leaders (can you think of a single smart western leader in the last 2 decades? Aside from Bill Clinton?).

Here is the likely next leader of France, Marine Le Pen...


Thursday, September 15, 2011

Jeg Er Dansk!

I don't care if she is a socialist, if this is the new prime minister of Denmark, I am Danish!

According to http://www.nordjyske.dk
"Helle Thorning-Schmidt er klar til at indtage sit nye job som Danmarks statsminister. 

- Kære partifæller, vi gjorde det. Kære partifæller, i dag er det skiftedag i Danmark. 

Danmarks næste statsminister, Helle Thorning-Schmidt, fik jublen til at eksplodere ved Socialdemokraternes valgfest på spillestedet Vega i København med de første ord i sin sejrstale. "


Who cares if I don't know what all that means.  Deep down I am shallow, but at least I know it.  Now, for a Palin/Bachman ticket!


Those Wicked Amish

We hear nothing of the Amish except good things, but now weekly we are treated to the wickedness of these plain people.  Today it is an Amish "Bernie Madoff"...  last week it was Amish scofflaws...  and before that that... Amish gang-rapists!  Not only in USA, but in Bolivia! In fact google has 337,000 hits for "amish sexual assault." And crime of crimes, the original organic farmers, the Amish sell RAW MILK!

What do all of these stories have in common:  they are written as "guilty until proven innocent," a dead give-away government owned media is ostracizing a group.  I am very well aware that the Amish experience all of societies ills, just not as much, and they face it without cops, judges, jails.  But it is also very likely none of these cases are of any substance.

The Amish have operated without government for centuries, and do quite well.  That idea cannot gain traction, as people realize government is not necessary.  Time to destroy a good example of peace, prosperity and freedom.

Your fear of raw milk is irrational, based on social conditioning.  Soon enough, you will find yourself disapproving of the Amish.  Just watch.


Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Self-employment is Self-improvement


On Sep 13, 2011, at 11:59 AM, GH wrote:
Hi John -

Thanks again for a great class.  You made me think about my business in terms I never would have otherwise.

***You are very kind.***

I want to continue to expand my business globally.

***And you agree permission to do so comes from customers...***

My products are well loved by a small niche demographic.  The product design, quality and functionalilty set it apart from any competition.

***Hold that thought...***

The only negative feeGHack is that the size is too big (it doesn't fit small men, asians or women) and that the single frame style is dated. 

***Note the contradiction from above, well loved design, dated design...  but the fact that you are redesigning based on feedback is the critical point...***

To counter that, I have worked with my overseas manufacturer to come up with a new smaller and more contemporary design.  

***And a key resource...***

I believe that this new design has the potential to triple my existing business because it answers the only negative reponses I have received for my present product.

***That is a hypothesis you can test...***

The cost of the item mold for the new design and the intial production run of 300 is $10,000. 

***300 pieces and $10,000 is $33 each cost... your wholesale is $15 each...you are plotting to buy high and sell low...  I understand there is the frame mold to be considered, and what recommends the investment is the feedback. But you are guessing at whether you will sell enough to amortize this up-front cost.  The chicken and egg...  you need samples for signed purchase orders, signed purchase orders makes for easy financing.  ***

I need financial help to accomplish this. 

***I don't think you have a finance problem. I think you need to prove your hypothesis.***

Could you help me secure funding for this production run and expansion of my business.  I am willing to offer equity in the LLC in exchange for investment in the future potential in the company.

***GH, I want to urge you to step back, and reflect on all of this.  What I see is you are at the point where you have learned that design is key, and continuous improvement is how you serve the customer and thrive.  This is a powerful basis for going forward.  But I also know all too well the feeling of "if I can just get the product, I know I can make it work."  In practice this usually comes to grief.  The two forces are against each other.  I think your challenge is to is to make the hard adjustment to move forward with the powerful force and dismiss the weak one.

I know these are not big numbers.  I mean really, you cold flip burgers swing shift and come up with that $10K in six months, and if the thing went completely south $10K is no big loss.  But that would be exercising the weak performance, when you could be exercising the strong performance instead with the time and resources.

Forget about finding investors, which you do not need, and forget about giving up equity, etc.  What I see, and you'd have to do this anyway, is

1. Get samples to test.  Not sure how to do this in your case, your product area.  How close can you get to the real thing, how far from the real thing will sales reps tolerate as a sample for a test?  This question I'd be happy to brainstorm on... next...

2. With purchase orders, your options open wide.  At that point, if you cannot swing it yourself, go to who else benefits, the factory.  Present hard numbers to the factory, which has excess production capacity.  When they see purchase orders, they see you as a marketing arm for their productive capacity.  Vendor financing is classic, but they have to have a reason to do so.

What I see is an existential problem... do you repeat tried and true but below par, or do you break out to another level?  Maybe I am projecting, since I've managed, against all odds to pull it off a few times before, and I am again struggling to crack the shell.  As I look back over the years I see self-employment as very much a self-improvement regime.  

Anyway, I hope this makes sense, and I'd be keen to continue to work this problem with you, but I wanted to get my assessment out there...

John


Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Government Brings Chaos

With elections coming up in Seattle, the city council has mandates that businesses with 5 or more people give sick leave to employees ranging from 1-2 weeks.  Ostensibly the reason is if people have sick leave time, spread of disease will be inhibited.  I bet we will find what everyone already knows: the rules will have no impact on the spread of disease, unemployment will rise in Seattle due to this rule.

This law starts next year, and serves to assist a grocery workers union in organizing Whole Foods.  Seattle is a progressive, union town, and as everyone knows, without more pension contributors now, the union retirees can kiss their pensions goodbye.  At the University of Washington, teaching assistants and other academic functions are unionized by the United Auto Workers.  One reason education is so expensive, or your child cannot get into college at all,  is that Detroit is so poorly managed.

This sick-leave law is crazy of course, anyone who has a growing business will avoid hiring more people, move out of the city, or do whatever it takes to avoid this.

A lawyer named Kinsella has written a fine piece of scholarly review of how most legislation and court action produce chaos.  Just as Seattle business people could no way predict and plan for this disastrous piece of legislation, so it is with most government rule making.  Here is a .pdf of the work, that other lawyers are praising.

These chaotic laws are making us poor.  The Italians have turned to Communist China, as many countries have, to bail them out.  The Italians want money.  Unless China ships Italy gold, which it will never do, Italy will not get money.  What will happen is China and Italy will agree that for Chinese support, the fruits of some Italian labor will flow to China.  What assets around the world from which Italians profited, that too will now flow to China, or at least some portion thereof.  It is not about money, it is about economic structural agreements.

The war in Libya is about keeping China from getting Libyan oil, among other things.  As Libyan oil looks less likely, Afghan supplies and routes are all the more important to China. Push Libya, push back Afghanistan.

Somalia is overgoverned, what with indigenous government covered by a layer of British and Italian government, then another layer of communism, then capitalists, finally crushing the consent to be governed at all by the people.  With ancient strategic value, various powers are backing factions and fomenting war.  Clearly the problem with Somalia is too much government, not a lack thereof.


The relevant comparison is not USA to Germany or Somalia, but USA to Hong Kong.  Hong Kong outperforms USA in all metrics, including far less government.  Freedom is the natural human condition.


There is an alternative to all of this, it's called freedom, peace and prosperity.  But governments hate our freedom, so they attack us with their rules.



Monday, September 12, 2011

We Desperately Need Cascading Cross-Defaults

Wealth is based on the division of labor.  The more people serve others in ever more defined and discreet areas, the more prices fall and the more options we have.  It is access to goods and services that is the proper definition of wealth, not how much money you have.  The very term wealth is rooted in happiness, the term is not rooted in money.  We are happy when our needs are met.  Money is a mere medium of exchange, exchange for the things that make us happy: a loaf of bread, a jug of wine, a cancer cure for our child.

The problem is the government gets involved, and the government has nothing it does not mulct from victims.  We want a cure, and government forces us to buy "care."  Government limits who can attempt new cures, and makes sure that we all are subject to harmful things, like Rick Perry in Texas signing into law a rule 14 year old girls are forced to take gardisil, which is proven to be worse than ineffective, and to make girls infertile.

People desire great amounts of money so they might have access to better things, so they have options. In a free market there are more options at prices most can generally afford.  People say they want money, but they settle for what the powers that be defines as money, which in essence are mere promises to pay, backed by other promises to pay.  This is why Greenspan referred to the possibility of cascading cross-defaults.  When those phony contracts for phony work fail to roll over upon the greater fool, when no greater fools exist, bonds go up to 100% and the defaults start rolling.  See Greece.

People making things for others, goods and services, freely, is how an economy hums. When the majority of income in a country is welfare checks and government employee checks, the relatively few who actually produce get less and find it harder to produce.  They do not expand and hire. So we also lose people who would be trained in such businesses, so there is no up and coming generation of producers.

Bailouts are to forestall the default, the cascading cross-defaults.  There is no better medicine, the sooner the better, than cascading cross-defaults.  the decks get cleared, the bad guys lose their power, and we can rebuild a better and more just economy.

This system is worldwide and is falling apart. Here is a summary of what entrepreneurs, in part, face when starting a business in USA.  If you do not like the way things are going, the most radical act you can make, is to start a business. You will be fighting for your freedom, nonviolently. The bad guys who control USA hate nothing more than your freedom.  The government, federal, state, county and local, attacks you because they hate your freedom.


Sunday, September 11, 2011

Remember, To Forgive

Folks,

Before blogs, there were listservs, and this post is the one I received the most replies to of anything I ever wrote.  Since everyone is about noting the ten year anniversary of that heinous event, I'll repeat what I said a decade ago...

Tuesday, September 11, 2001


Forgiveness

Folks,

I had the pleasure of beginning my career just after the last series of
heinous terrorist acts in the early '70's, and was fortunate to travel widely
in mid-to-late 70's as a buyer. More specifically, I was able to travel to
"Red China" twice a year and circumstances were such that I was rubbing
shoulders with "enemies of the USA" in the course of my work.

Now there is no doubt some very evil people did this work today, and equally
no doubt that the USA will respond in a way that certainly settles matters
for a while. There is much speculation as to who did this (and keep in mind
we had 2 whole days of "arab terrorist" alarms before Timothy McVeigh was
arrested for the OKC blast), and we'll certainly find out. Of course no
government will ever be behind such an attack, so it is likely a
non-governmental group. Bottom line is we'll find out, and we will retaliate
effectively.

What no one above grade schoolers seems to be asking is "why?" Why would so
many people conspire to do so much damage? It seems a given that this is
what Arab terrorists do... bomb Americans.

I got an answer in the late '70's from the kinds of people you saw dancing in
jubilation over our disaster. Their explanations were rational and
understandable, although I never agreed. And fortunately, the vast majority
of those Arabs I met were genuinely distressed at what havoc the terrorists
cause the Arab world as well as our world.

We are the most powerful country in the world and will remain so this century
no matter how many attacks we suffer. But there are many people within our
power structures who are unworthy of our country, just as these terrorists
are unworthy of Arab culture. The worst elements in Araby give power to the
worst voices in our culture, and they feed on each other.

We have in our arsenal, within our culture, a weapon that is irresistible.
That weapon is forgiveness. Yes some of Araby rejoices at our wound, but
most of cultured Araby is disgusted. We are the superior power, and as such
we can forgive, and then listen to the answer to the question why. There is
no shame in that.

We voters may not be pleased with what we hear, and we may have to take care
to pick more worthy representatives. We are overwhelmingly powerful, and it
is up to us what happens next. Inshallah, the violence will stop.

John Spiers
****
And here is an essay from 9-11-2011, by Chris Hedges

http://www.readersupportednews.org/off-site-opinion-section/143-143/4261-a-decade-after-911-we-are-what-we-loathe