Monday, July 23, 2012

Econometrics

Let me show you a formula upon which your retirement depends.  It is called a plain vanilla greeks vega:

 S e^{-q \tau} \phi(d_1) \sqrt{\tau} = K e^{-r \tau} \phi(d_2) \sqrt{\tau} \,

Understand that?  Maybe Ben Bernanke could identify all the symbols and what the stand for, but the bottom line is they relate to your property, your pension and your paycheck.  They relate to those items, but they are a formula calculating the results of a set of circumstances in the market.  Well, a market is neutral.  Circumstances are neutral.  What the formula expresses is the non-neutral actor, that is human action, in the marketplace.

Do you truly believe that the people who are responsible for your well being can reduce human action to a formula?  You have already bet your future that they can and do.

And it is not just this formula, there are all sorts of formulae, magic incantations that will turn lead into gold.  Want to see more of them?  Go here, read through, and then at the bottom consider all of the magic incantations Wall Street uses to turn dross into gold.

Let me tell you bluntly: that formula is pure mumbo jumbo, to put it politely.  Check out the swaption or the vertical spread.  In a century, after the system goes down and mankind yet again improbably rises, they will laugh at us as much as we laugh at the alchemists.  And rightly so.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


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