Friday, July 27, 2012

Financial Alchemy

Plenty of people predicted where we are today, and why, as the damage was being done.  None of those people are allowed near the commanding heights. How did they know?  Because we have seen this so many times before.

One hundred years ago a Charles MacKay wrote a book people are still reading today, about the mass delusions of a century before his time.  He outlined the South Sea Bubble, Tulipmania, and what might seem unrelated, alchemy and the effort to turn lead into gold.  Actually, not so different.

Let's look at how alchemy proposed to do so. Here is an actual formula for turning lead into gold. This from Wikipedia...

File:Alchemy-Digby-RareSecrets.png
It goes on, but you get the picture.    Wikipedia notes:

European alchemy continued in this way through the dawning of the Renaissance. The era also saw a flourishing of con artists who would use chemical tricks and sleight of hand to "demonstrate" the transmutation of common metals into gold, or claim to possess secret knowledge that—with a "small" initial investment—would surely lead to that goal.

Indeed!  And here are some of the alchemists 300 years or so ago working on this opportunity:

        Paracelsus (1493–1541)
Basilius Valentinus (Basil Valentine) (15th century)
Tycho Brahe (1546–1601)
Jacob Boehme (1575–1624)
Isaac Newton (1642–1727)
Johann Kunckel (1630–1703)
Count of St Germain (d. 1784)

These people were the Chase Econometrics, MFGlobal, Bank of America, Barclays, Washington Mutual, Citibank of their times.

Now consider the formula above for turning lead into gold.  And now consider some of the formula used today to turn, well, air into gold.


PV\,=\,(1 - p_1) N(1-R) \delta_1\,
+ p_1 ( 1 - p_2 ) [ N(1-R) \delta_2 - \frac{Nc}{4} \delta_1 ]
+p_1 p_2 ( 1 - p_3 ) [ N(1-R) \delta_3 - \frac{Nc}{4} (\delta_1 + \delta_2) ]
+p_1 p_2 p_3 (1 - p_4) [ N(1-R) \delta_4 - \frac{Nc}{4} (\delta_1 + \delta_2 + \delta_3) ]
-p_1 p_2 p_3 p_4 ( \delta_1 + \delta_2 + \delta_3 + \delta_4 ) \frac{Nc}{4}


This is simply financial alchemy. In a hundred years, after the coming disasters which discredit this madness, and is replaced with some new madness to which people readily subscribe, our descendants will sneer at us.  And you consented to give your power to these people to control your financial well being.    And they are not done, they are doing with student loans what they did with housing, right now, today.  With the real estate bubble, at least there was actually a house, and you could walk away from it.  With student loans you'll be another unemployed MBA, and you cannot bankrupt your student loans.  You'll have nothing but be trapped for life.  If you do not understand this, you have no idea who you are up against.

Update:  After we bailed out GM, they went out and began making loans for cars to people who can not pay back the loans.  Here we go again.  Let GM die, open source all auto patents (get the state out of automaking), and watch the industry revive.

No matter what happens next, you cannot complain.  If you wanted to know, you could have asked.  Plenty of people were saying so while the damage was being done.  You ignored the warnings.  Now you are being told the next election matters.  Not at all.



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