Wednesday, June 5, 2013

Housing Price Rise Means Economy Not Improving

The natural indicator of an improving economy is prices fall.  If prices are generally rising, then it is a signal something is wrong.  For us to get out of this economic mess, prices must fall.  The bottom is not low prices, the bottom is no market, at any price.

By Government policy, interest rates are dirt low.  Landbanking is popular, to buy up property and sit on it since the interest costs are negligible, and alternative investments are more risky.

Warren Buffett has announced the No. 1 investment pick right now is distressed housing.  (Houses do not get distressed, the owner do.)  Buffett recommends you do too.  The problem with Buffett's investment strategy is if he is wrong, he gets a bailout, whereas you lose your home.

If the economy were improving, housing and commercial real estate would be falling.  But it is going up.  It is going up because big money groups are buying up property to rent out.  This will result in more corporate control of housing, and fewer independent builders.

A just way out of this mess is to let prices fall to the point where an recovering economy allows people to afford houses again.  But capitalism is not a just economic model.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


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