Monday, June 10, 2013

Snowden In A Hong Kong Hotel


On Jun 9, 2013, at 5:21 PM, CM wrote:
Thought you'd appreciate this paragraph:

"On May 20, he boarded a flight to Hong Kong, where he has remained ever since. He chose the city because "they have a spirited commitment to free speech and the right of political dissent", and because he believed that it was one of the few places in the world that both could and would resist the dictates of the US government."


I was a little surprised to read that Snowden expects asylum in Hong Kong.  As regular readers know, I often praise Hong Kong for various reasons.  But one thing Hong Kong is not is an asylum for dissidents.  Almost no Chinese nationals can get into Hong Kong, so how this guy came to the conclusion the Hong Kong benevolence would extend to him, I am not sure. 

One thing that was always clear to me in Hong Kong, is clear to me when I am there, is I am a guest tolerated for the duration of the time it takes for me to do business.  HK is for the people of Hong Kong, not for NSA dissidents, or anyone else that might cause the people of Hong Kong inconvenience.  Hong Kong is a wonderful place if you are there to make money and behave yourself.

If the Chinese want him (and they will) he sure isn't safe in Hong Kong.  If the USA wants him, he might be safe there from a snatching, but not from a killing.  If the Chinese don't want him, they sure benefit by whacking him, making USA look vindictive (everyone will assume USA whacked him.)  He might be safe in Cuba or North Korea or Vietnam.   USA has never been able to get soldiers they left behind out of there, so Snowden should be safe in Vietnam.  (Several soldiers have gotten out after being abandoned by the military, but as far as USA military is concerned, there are none left behind.)

I doubt Iceland can protect him.  I think he might be a bit naive about his prospects.  But taking him at his word, his act was suicidal, and he'll take getting whacked over life in Dick Cheney's USA.  Most people in his situation simply resign.

You know, the Soviets (ooops) er Russians would take him, could use him, and might treat him well and be able to pretty much protect him, but then, ahem, the Russians are not exactly rights-respecters.  I dunno...  as one who refused to go to Vietnam for Uncle Sam way back when, I doubt I'd get in his pickle.  

My guess is he gets suicided, somewhere somehow. But a wet operation in Hong Kong, I don't think the hotel at which he is a guest will tolerate blood on the carpet or a "jumper" from the 21st floor.  I once made the mistake of handing cash across a table for a sample of a Wine Tasting Game in the lobby of the Hotel Marco Polo and hotel security was on us like white on rice.  They'll have none of that declasse' activity in Hong Kong, thank you.  In fact my guess is he is out of Hong Kong before this post hits my blog.

(Update: sure enough, he is on the move... willingly or unwillingly.)

Snowden's fate, one way or another, will be up to Beijing.  Never forget, Hong Kong is China, under the "one country, two systems" model, until 2047, when that ends.  I think Snowden seriously misread Hong Kong.  In fact, the hotel is no doubt patiently awaiting Beijing's orders.  In the meantime, every USA spook in Hong Kong has several Chinese shadows.  China will again learn much by how USA intel behaves while we learn nothing.  (We badly need a Hong Kong in USA so we can have that kind of freedom.)

But tell me when if ever anyone is USA intelligence gets anything right?  This is just another example of a $200,000 per year clerk who screwed up intelligence analysis.  We have millions of them working for the USGovt Intel and its civilian contractors.  It is another reason why we are becoming an impoverished country.  Time to bring all these people home and get back to business.

Time for truth commissions, instead of depending on whistleblowers.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


7 comments:

Anonymous said...

I thought it was interesting that the leaker was seeking political asylum in communist China of all places - Is he that naive to think that the Chinese weren't spying on their own citizens like the NSA as well? He should have gone to a congressman and lawyer to do the whistle blowing the right way.


Anonymous said...

Why is that these leakers, the NSA leaker and Bradley Manning, have access to so much information as individuals? Don't spy agencies practice "compartmentalization" where agents work on a limited "need to know" basis unless they are a top guy to prevent agents from knowing the "big picture"? The leaker and Manning were typically low level people - not high-ranking managers or organization leaders.

John Wiley Spiers said...

If, as explained, Google and Facebook place the NSA-bound information in an electronic lockbox to await the NSA's leisure to collect it, then certainly the Chinese are getting a copy in the meantime. It may very well be that the Chinese have no interest in Snowden because he has nothing new for them to have.

As to why such low level people have such access, bear in mind all these "secrets" are pure dross, except the embarrassing stuff about USA soldiers committing murders, etc. I mean really! Phone records from Snowden and bitchy emails from wikileaks? We pay billions to make it, and billions more to store it, then billions more to hide it. Secrecy is to keep the people from knowing what the government is doing. The Chinese already know.

Anonymous said...

I heard on Fox news by some expert that the NSA was just storing the massive amount of collected information, not actually monitoring it in real time. The rationale given was that if something happened, like a terrorist attack, the NSA could then go back, after-the-fact, and analyze the collected information. This is stupid - So what good is this data collection program (even if legal) if the NSA is not monitoring in real time as it is collected to thwart terrorist attacks?

This NSA program will most likely be abused by gov. officials in office in being used against their adversaries and including the public - look at what is happening with the IRS and the Tea Parties, and the DOJ and the AP journalists. Just think of what could happen with Obamacare - one party in power denying healthcare to members of the other party.

John Wiley Spiers said...

Indeed, Clinton flunkies, whose presence was inexplicable, requested FBI background files delivered to the White house for review. Old stuff, but good. Still not settled. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_House_FBI_files_controversy

Anonymous said...

$200K a year is a lot for no high school diploma or GED or college degree apparently, even for government work.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2338884/Edward-Snowden-How-did-high-school-drop-entrusted-governments-biggest-secrets.html

The federal government trough is deep and wide indeed.

Anonymous said...

Another scary thought: If the leaker was paid $200K per year as take home pay, what was booz allen being paid on top of his salary? - Maybe something like $100 -$200k +? I have no idea, but this guy may have cost the government something like $300 - $400k in total per year. That's crazy, he couldn't have been that good no matter what he was doing with his seemingly sparse educational background and skill set. This is just another example of how government is not very good and pricing things.