Mish and Pettis are good China-watchers, although I have critiqued Pettis before. Here is some solid analysis of economic predictions on China...
1. China is better off in its relations with the world than USA, and requires less to be friends than USA requires. Until the USA abandons those who have a claim regarding unfunded pension liabilities on the faith and credit of the USA, the USA needs to make far more money than China does. Or more to the point, USA needs to take far more money that the Chinese can make.
2. The Chinese can stand going without luxuries far easier than the other Western States which will experience economic downturn soon.
The problem the USA faces is the wars we are involved in now, and the ones in the future, will be the Wars to Fund the American Unfunded Pension Liability. We have voted ourselves such unimaginable luxury and leisure time that inevitably people focus on retirement as a component of their employment. At the same time, self-employment and industry are punished by regulation and chaotic taxation. Every small business is a mere bagatelle tolerated as a step in the process of drawing even more people into the welfare collective.
Read the comments sections in news reports. We are a country turning on each other over spoils. C'est la vie. St Paul said something about where sin abounds, grace abounds all the more. Hard to see grace notes, let alone grace abounding, in this polity. Here is a pretty good alternative.
There are tremendous headwinds, but it is the small businesses that carry the day.
Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.
Under specified rebalancing assumptions for China it is possible to calculate arithmetically the annual growth rate for consumption and investment under different GDP growth scenarios. This allows us to decide whether these scenarios are plausible or not.The thing that needs to borne in mind as considering these calculations is two items:
1. China is better off in its relations with the world than USA, and requires less to be friends than USA requires. Until the USA abandons those who have a claim regarding unfunded pension liabilities on the faith and credit of the USA, the USA needs to make far more money than China does. Or more to the point, USA needs to take far more money that the Chinese can make.
2. The Chinese can stand going without luxuries far easier than the other Western States which will experience economic downturn soon.
The problem the USA faces is the wars we are involved in now, and the ones in the future, will be the Wars to Fund the American Unfunded Pension Liability. We have voted ourselves such unimaginable luxury and leisure time that inevitably people focus on retirement as a component of their employment. At the same time, self-employment and industry are punished by regulation and chaotic taxation. Every small business is a mere bagatelle tolerated as a step in the process of drawing even more people into the welfare collective.
Read the comments sections in news reports. We are a country turning on each other over spoils. C'est la vie. St Paul said something about where sin abounds, grace abounds all the more. Hard to see grace notes, let alone grace abounding, in this polity. Here is a pretty good alternative.
There are tremendous headwinds, but it is the small businesses that carry the day.
Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.
1 comments:
http://www.dickmorris.com/china-will-not-overtake-u-s-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/
How certain is China's continuing rise economically?
Post a Comment