Monday, August 26, 2013

You Have No Idea What You Are Talking About

If you are in business, your opinion does not matter.

The people flogging the Steve Jobs biopic are on late night radio talking.  I heard the producer relating stories about Steve Jobs, one I found interesting.

Apparently, when laser printing technology first showed up, Steve Jobs said do it.  Well, the problem was in 1985 a laser printer was $6,000.  A new Acura was $6,000.  Was he nuts?

So they fired him.  And Jobs went on his way for a decade.  And Apple went downhill.

Now, who would buy a laser printer for $6000 when an Acura was $6000?

The problem with the question is it presumes a false dilemma.  There is an opinion implicit in the question, of that false dilemma.  Either or.

Had someone formed the question as a hypothesis, perhaps they would have tested and found out Jobs was right.

For a word processor, a brochure maker, layout editor, etc, typesetting is an expensive proposition.  Say such a step adds $250 to a job.  A laser printer cuts that step out.    It takes only 24 jobs to cover the cost of the laser printer.  When your firm spends more than $6000 over the amortized PVT life of a laser printer on typesetting, you are money ahead.

How does the price of an Acura have anything to do with that calculation?

If you are starting up a business, you need to understand something:  You have no idea what you are talking about.  Your opinion does not matter.  Form every opinion as a hypotheses, and then test it.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


1 comments:

Anonymous said...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204603004577267271656000782.html?mod=hp_jrmodule

Persistent myths I think about entrepreneurship - that it is "risky" and that it cannot be learned.