Saturday, January 18, 2014

A Tale of Two Desktop 3D Printers

Indiegogo has a pretty interesting offer on another "desktop 3D printer", rather fully formed when compared to what is now shipping out of Hong Kong, mentioned last week.

I am very interested in seeing crowdfunding, which is a Shariah compliant form of finance, re-emerge in the post-capitalist world.  Of course the powers that be are making crowdfunding necessarily a criminal offense in USA, slowly but surely as you will see if you search the term on this blog, but we can always hope that capitalism falls before crowdfunding is stamped out.

A side point:

Looking at the indiegogo offering, the RapideOne prototype is rather fully formed.

http://www.3ders.org/articles/20131109-dynamic-and-fresh-looking-rapide-one-3d-printer-soon-on-indiegogo.html
And then the page on indiegogo looks rather world class.  They overshot their $50,000 goal, and are now going for a stretch. The "production values" of their page promotion surely cost more than the $50,000 they are asking for.  My initial thought was along the lines of "is a well-funded effort using indiegogo as a platform to announce its machine?  Has indiegogo now figured out a way to capitalize on the "garage-band" cachet to cash-in?"  Indiegogo gets a cut of the action, fair enough.  But have they moved on to taking a fee as well?  I have no opinion one way or another, only wonder at the evolution of this funding mechanism.  If not, why not?  And if not, might a start-up crowdfunder base a model on that?

But more to my point:

The RapideOne is well-funded and not yet shipping.  Now compare the fellow in Hong Kong, who is shipping his desktop 3D printer, the MakiBox, as something of a kit.  Compare the below 3D Printer with the above.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/03/tech/innovation/3d-printer-makibox/
My bet is MakiBox, over time, will crush RapideOne in the market.  How come?

Here is my answer:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1328439/First-Apple-Steve-Jobs-auction-150k-Christies.html
This is the first Apple Computer that shipped.

1. RapideOne is over-designed as a new product.  They are guessing what the market wants.

     A. RapideOne has run ahead with design based on the work of a few high-priced engineers, not on customer demand.  The few necessarily go off in a direction for which the market neither wants nor cares.  Such design values cost.

    B. The indiegogo angle is too clever by half.  They clearly believe "hype" and "buzz" is enough to succeed, and it creates a feedback loop that satisfies but does not fulfill.

   C. It appears RapideOne is building its own facilities commensurate with its ambitions.  Madness!  With massive overcapacity, farming out and subcontracting is the way to go.

   D. RapideOne implicitly admits it will take a loss on its first iterations.

RapideOne is leaving money on the table as it leapfrogs over profitable iterations. They are borrowing money to spend on nothing of value as they ignore customer feedback while running ahead.  Good luck with that.

Makibox, on the other hand, is shipping already to real customers.  Using subcontractors makes for speed and flexibility, something Apple does to this day.  MakiBox is already getting feedback from actual use on what is needed next.  By designing strictly to the end of "enough customer orders to cover the cost of a minimum production run, in a workable amount of time, profitably" Makibox is making money already as feedback on what is next is pouring in.  This feedback will fuel an upward design path that most closely tracks consumer demand.

No doubt RapideOne is necessarily playing the IPR angle as well, along with NDRs and NCRs, while MakiBox's best ideas are still nascent, so could not possibly be fully expressed, let alone "stolen."  Unless RapideOne can hire mind readers and thought-anticipators, advantage MakiBox.

The fact that RapideOne is priced at $1500 on Indiegogo (projected at $2400 after launch) and MakiBox is some $300 is utterly irrelevant.  The thing that matters is MakiBox is turning a profit and RapideOne is not.  The prices could be reversed and I'd bet on MakiBox, if all other aspects remained the same.

I speak with countless young people who assure me there is no chance for their ideas to go forward for want of the millions in "seed money" to get going.  I am looking forward to MakiBox becoming Exhibit A to the contrary.  There are countless other examples, but desktop 3D printing is the Spirograph of the twenty-tens, and so will have iconic status as an example.

And in the USA market, RapideOne will look like a deep pockets company product, necessarily immediately inviting lawsuits.  MakiBox will for a while like a bloodless turnip.

My bet: MakiBox wins out.

Update:

In Los Angeles I'll offer an all day international trade start-up boot camp, Sat March 15, at Orange Coast College...  click here to register...


Importing as a Small Business

Not yet rated by students

    

Class Description

Learn how you can become an importer now in a one-day seminar highly rated for the instructor's experience, pace, candor and humor. You will be guided through licensing, selecting products, finding suppliers; working with governments, bankers, brokers, carriers; financing, costing and pricing, and gaining orders for your products. This knowledge becomes the basis for an export business as well.  After the seminar,  help via email with instructor and past students is included. 

Class ID: 16510
Saturday, 9:00 am - 5:00 pm; 1 session starting March 15, 2014, ending March 15, 2014
Tuition: $95.00
Instructor: Spiers


Registration Closes On: March 16, 2014 12:00 AM

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


3 comments:

Anonymous said...

http://www.infowars.com/navy-helps-fund-3d-printing-of-buildings/


3D printer can also build buildings out of concrete.


Anonymous said...

the 2nd one is really UGLY....! surprised it sells

John Wiley Spiers said...

Did you catch the point the first Apple computer was very ugly too...?