On Jan 27, 2014, at 7:19 AM, riv wrote:
In my opinion, the versatility and potential of this ... is too great to ignore that when applied to the increased public “green-health’ awareness and demand, I see an import/export opportunity here…
*** OPINION, good... so this opinion must be formed as a hypothesis and tested.
Along with the rationale in demand, there is your feeling (I suspect) that you have some esoteric info: demand info and applications info.
Again, you asked, so here goes:
Check the trends and control for hype, rarely if ever does hype affect at the transaction level. For example, in spite of the hundreds of millions spent on "BUY USA" and relabelling in the 1980s and countless surveys proving the americans prefer USA made, it does not show up at the transaction level. Same with recycled etc... people vote with their pocketbook when they buy.
If you see money going into green, well, when a good part of that is Solyndra and Shell Oil claiming to be investing in green strip mining, well, ok...but not really... it's just pork labelled beef.
As to healthy, people have always wanted that. Oleomargarine and no salt nor fat were sold as healthy for the 8 decades the food pyramid was king... now that people have figured out they were scammed by big govt/big food, they still want healthy, but they are back to what was once good food.
Aside from being skeptical of demand, the question is how will demand at the macroeconomic level translate into sales of your item necessarily at the microeconomic level? You're entering a jungle hoping to land on a dime. My point is, this needs to be turned around: how to get from being on the dime to wading into the jungle (because who knows what happens in biz after you get started.)
If there is implicit advantage assumed in esoteric knowledge, check that since the fact the info is researchable means it is in fact out there. Your premise is betting that there are not enough people with knowledge and marketing and product development acumen to meet the needs if and when new avenues open up.
Look at microbreweries and iPhones. Beer was a well known industry when my favorite president ever, Jimmy Carter, deregulated beer. Lots of people jumped in, but by the time the trade stats revealed that specialty beer imports were growing, those with skill and expertise and acumen already won the race. iPhone could not be contemplated when Jimmy Carter deregulated telecommunications, and again, it was the Steve Jobs of the world who pulled that one off.
So here is my critique. You do not have a product to sell today, so you are in no position to start up a business. (this class is about starting up a business now.) Your rationale regarding demand and implied esoteric knowledge may be spot-on, but what does it have to do with you? And in any event, the series of steps that must go right for you to get where somehow there will be a business is a task Herculean that Odysseus would decline.
The "aha" above relates to my prejudice that processes that succeed in government work are the antithesis of what works in entrepreneurship (the thesis, and there may very well be a synthesis between the two, but I have not seen it.) No doubt your goals working in the commerce department were met by following whatever process leads to that result, but it is antithetical to what works in small biz. I am keen on this topic because no matter who wins the elections over the next decades, either party will cut back on government service and repudiate pensions. The process is well underway, and to me this means a whole lot of productive contributors will be entering the market to the benefit of all. I want to save them time and money getting to "thriving..." the more people producing the better for all...
Sure, you could pick any known product as a biz now, but I suspect you intuit that all demand for that product is adequately met. So what would be your competitive advantage? Lower price? You can test it, but that won't work.
I've wandered a bit because your circumstances are very interesting to me, inasmuch as I want to get the process right for people to shift from govt to private work. You seem willing to attend to the challenge.
So back to the question... if you could trade absolutely any good or service you wanted to, what would it be? Still your original products? Of all the things you can imagine and reflect on, that is the one? Think on this more, and we open with this question Wednesday night... I'll offer a paradigm shift...
Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.
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