Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Anti-Russian Sanction Insanity

After the USA destabilized the Ukraine so badly the Crimea seceded, the USA led a sanctions Regime on Russia of "invading the Ukraine."  Bizarre behaviour.  Now comes the effect of the sanctions:
The tree nuts market in Russia had been expanding rapidly over the past couple of years, with the US being the largest supplier of tree nuts. According to the US Department of Agriculture, the US provided more than half of Russia’s total tree nut imports in 2013, but more than 95% of Russia’s total almond imports.
The Russians can and are looking at what is popular in USA, and with a land mass larger and more diverse than USA, and opportunities in agriculture improving, they will "import-substitute."  Expect to lose the market for good, and then...
Therefore the US will look for other import markets to supply to.
Of course they will.. the price to them will fall faster then perceived value, widening profits as they sell for less, but hammering the USA crop for decades, or perhaps forever.  This is how empires fall.

But in the meantime, larger volume, lower prices, "get big or get out" is still the guiding diktat in USA trade.
Higher supply in the export destinations is likely to lead to lower prices and higher demand, giving the US more export opportunity in the future.
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