Sport Obermeyer and Lead Times

Klaus Obermeyer is a veteran innovator who has seen seven decades of wholesale business:

Klaus Obermeyer, founder of the Aspen-based ski-wear company Sport Obermeyer, said the Snow Show remains important for his business, but changes in the manufacturing business have complicated his side of the industry. In the old days, the Snow Show was held in March. Retailers would place their orders, then Obermeyer would reach a deal with a factory.
Now, factories need more advance time, so Obermeyer must place its order before the Snow Show. “We have to order before we sell the stuff,” Obermeyer said. He and his staff make an educated guess on their order for numerous models of pants, jackets, parkas and vests based on how well sales have gone for the current season — which affects retailers’ inventories — and some previews with some of their best customers. Nevertheless, it’s still a guessing game.
“You go to church every day and pray to be right,” Obermeyer quipped.

Indeed, because his business is in the hundreds of millions, so lead times are scary for him.  For a small company, say $3 million in sales and $300,000 net for the owner, those lead times are not applicable.  We are still operating on the 1960s lead times, since we are not critical to anyone anywhere along the distribution channel.  In my book I call it the "value of our insignificance."  We must go to church every day and pray too, but we have enough orders to cover the suppliers minimum in a workable amoount of time, profitably.  Entrepreneurs don't take risks.

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