Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Capitalism's Berlin Wall Moment

Kevin has twice sent me links to this story, and it has been coming in on my google feed, but it is moving so fast that I was awaiting some pause to comment.  I guess the story is "it is moving so fast" and showing no signs of slowing down.

Back in the day, some East German apparatchik spoke an unscripted answer and a rush to get out of the socialist countries turned into an implosion of the Easter Bloc.  We are there.

China has set up an alternative to the World Bank and the IMF.  The Hegemon told everyone to stay away from it...  by badmouthing it:
"Our messaging to the Chinese consistently has been to welcome investment in infrastructure but to seek unmistakable evidence that this bank...takes as its starting point the high watermark of what other multilateral development banks have done in terms of governance," U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Russel said in Seoul.
Is that what we do, we "messaging" China?  Our foreign relations is programmatic?  Note the backhanded "fear uncertainty doubt" implication: watch out for those inscrutable Chinese, and their questionable governance.  This, coming from USA.  Ferguson much?  Iraq much?

Although the IMF is supposed to help out in a crisis, Jude Wanniski, John Perkins and Naomi Klein have all documented the fact the the IMF foments crises wherever it lands.  Controlled absolutely by the USA, it puts foreign faces on USA credit and spreads destabilization in the name of development.

The world well knows the true nature of USA financial shenanigans and W A R W A R W A R and China is offering a way out.  So far here is a graph of our ungrateful vassals:

http://www.businessinsider.com/americas-biggest-european-allies-just-dealt-a-blow-to-us-foreign-policy-2015-3
Saudi Arabia? Have we not kept your regime in power?  Kuwait!  Did we not save your bacon?  The Philippines?  You don't love us anymore?  India?!  We thought we were friends!  Uzbekistan!  Did we not pay you enough?  The news we cannot keep up with is the torrent of European allies that are bailing out of the USA-dominated system, and transferring their allegiance to Chinese leadership.  It gets down to this: the Chinese will manage better at a lower cost.

You can read here how long other countries of the world wanted to escape the USA hegemon... let's look back to 1974:
VOLUME XXXI, FOREIGN ECONOMIC POLICY, DOCUMENT 63
63. Minutes of Secretary of State Kissinger’s Principals and Regionals Staff Meeting 1Washington, April 25, 1974, 3:13–4:16 p.m.
....
Secretary Kissinger: Then what’s our policy?Mr. Enders: The policy we would suggest to you is that, (1), we refuse to go along with this—Secretary Kissinger: I am just totally allergic to unilateral European decisions that fundamentally affect American interests—taken without consultation of the United States. And my tendency is to smash any attempt in which they do it until they learn that they can’t do it without talking to us.
It goes back farther than that, but our policy is to smash any act of independence by any ally.  Since one ally defied the Hegemon, the others have rushed through the gate.  So what is USA to do?  Punish them all?  Punishment will be welcome for a price paid to join the Chinese will be convertible into rank in the new pecking order.

While USA has answered every question with war for the last 25 years, the Chinese have been building roads, airports, universities worldwide.  China has simply been playing out of our playbook, and we scream "cheating!"  The Chinese call it "winning."  Silk road and gold-backed currency.  Shipping overland costs 14 times over water, but who knows?  With maglev the costs drop?  (In USA we are still spending $30 million a mile for 1880s trolleys, the real point being the bond sales, not transportation.)

Our grand "pivot to Asia" is called TPP, which does not include China.



As usual, this politician says "free markets" but means no such thing.  Lawyer speak with forked tongue.

Only we free traders are anti-isolation.  And free trade is always unilateral.

What this means is massive credit deflation.  USA has astronomical amounts of credit on offer, but with too much uncertainty as opposed to the Chinese offer.  Sure, when there are no assets behind the credit, one can afford to borrow at negative interest rates, but not if there is nothing to invest in that will not end up in the red at even those rates.

The Communist Bloc fell with little bloodshed, and hopefully the Capitalist Bloc will do so as well.  unlikely.  In the Eastern Bloc they went from poor to better off, whereas we will need to make a transition from "entitled" to rational.  Whew.  I get dizzy.

Your best bet is to start a business.  There is necessarily personal transformation in self-employment. There will be a renaissance of small business in USA.  Lend credit at no interest against assets to your customers, that is the smart game in credit deflation.  If there is war etc, and if you survive, then for your kids etc things will be very good after that.  You can't complain, what goes around comes around, and you never complained about the wars for the last 25 years.  Take your medicine like the rest of us.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


0 comments: