Sunday, March 1, 2015

China's B2C eCommerce Penetration Exactly the Same as USA.

Not much.

For introduction, let's look at this:
Alibaba for "business-to-business", Taobao for "consumer-to-consumer" and Dangdang for "business-to-consumer".[1] 
Let's see if we can figure out what the percent of all retail is done online in China.
Online shopping in China is making waves as it achieved a new milestone—tremendous growth helped e-commerce achieve 10.1 percent of total retail transactions in the country in Q2 this year. ...This includes a combination of business-to-consumer (B2C) and consumer-to-consumer (C2C) transactions. This is the first time online shopping has crossed the 10 percent threshold of total transactions, and the rate is expected to rise in the coming years.
The growth rate is slowing down overall.
Online retail grew by 47.1 percent in Q2 of 2014 from the previous year—a step down from 64.1 percent for the same period last year. 
From the graph we see that in the last year reporting solid numbers, 2013, the B2C portion is 59.6%, say 60% of the total.  So 60% of ten percent total is about 6%.  China's eCommerce B2C penetration is the same as in the USA, roughly.

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The internet is no place to launch a business, you miss out on 94% of your customers.  And notice those companies that are getting customers online are using massive deb to do so.

My guess is China will never get above 8% eCommerce penetration as a component of overall retail.  Sell to eTailers, but don't do do it yourself.

The people who bought Alibaba stock got scammed.  Chinese eCommerce is strictly ho-hum.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


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