Saturday, March 28, 2015

Renaissance of Small Business Food Exports

The reports coming in are overwhelming, big business can't do it anymore.  Check out this gov't report:
Bar chart comparing the change in value and volume of U.S. process products vs. bulk exports from 2004-2013. Processed food has outpaced bulk exports in both categories.
http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/us-processed-food-exports-growth-outlook
What we see here is dollar volume vs price growth, in processed vs specialty.  Think Godiva v Hershey for processed foods, and heirloom corn v GMO corn.   Processed specialty is growing 3.5 times faster over the last decade, and in bulk, for bulk, we need to talk exponentials, since GMO is dying as heirloom is up 100 times.

Now this is a graphic example of a point I am making and that is it only takes a 1% drop in GMO sales to register as a 100% increase in heirloom sales into the vacuum.  You cannot handle 100% sales increase a year in the real world, so there is plenty of opportunity to go around.

Politics aside, there is nothing to stop this trend, it was built on false credit, which has ended as an option.  Now comes credit deflation.

The project of reducing GMO crop coverage with wholesome food is going to take "all hands on deck."  Exporting gives us the opportunity to effect this necessary replacement.  As we build market overseas, more land will be needed to produce the goods.  As more countries realize the danger of GMO, its sales will continue to drop.  At the same time, USA quality control and wholesomeness recommends our specialty foods to the world.  There is work for anyone who wants it.

At the bottom of the report is a recommendation to look into cross border ecommerce.  Elsewhere on this blog I have destroyed any pro-ecommerce argument, recently again here.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


2 comments:

Anonymous said...

"there is work for anyone who wants it" - I love this optimism and statement. Yet I have a qualifying question regarding this article specifically. Here it goes: If I were just to read this article, I may conclude that heirloom corn is where the business is so I try to work in exporting heirloom corn as a result but the I find in trying to do this that I cannot compete with the producers of heirloom corn.

So.... necessarily, I believe where you are taking us readers to encourage us to get to work is that there are premium foods based on non-gmo that should be sought to export because of the openings in the market created by a decrease in demand for gmo products. Am I on the right track?

So, I find a food I passionately want to export and work that product in trying to find importers for buyers in the countries that are accelerating over the previous 5 years in sales in that (HTC) product. Etc... Am I on track?

Finally, any product suggestions? (half joking)

John Wiley Spiers said...

If I were just to read this article, I may conclude that heirloom corn is where the business is so I try to work in exporting heirloom corn as a result but the I find in trying to do this that I cannot compete with the producers of heirloom corn.

So.... necessarily, I believe where you are taking us readers to encourage us to get to work is that there are premium foods based on non-gmo that should be sought to export because of the openings in the market created by a decrease in demand for gmo products. Am I on the right track?

***Exactly... especially if acting as an agent... I dread using examples for 100 people then say "Heirloom Corn!" and run pff expecting to get rich in heirloom corn exports. Ungh! The process discovers new markets for USA food... not discovers who might be cannibalized as is taught by all other sources. ***

So, I find a food I passionately want to export and work that product in trying to find importers for buyers in the countries that are accelerating over the previous 5 years in sales in that (HTC) product. Etc... Am I on track?

***A food you passionately want to get to desirous consumers, who happen to be overseas, yes. Accelerating, decelerating, steady... not much matter, what matters is the rationale you take form the trend data...***

Finally, any product suggestions? (half joking)

***Ha ha ha. Nice try.***