Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Are Your Customers True or False Economy?

Follow this logic:
TOKYO, April 13 (Reuters) - A rally in China's stock markets to seven-year highs on Monday kept an index of Asian shares near its highest level since September, as weak Chinese trade data intensified expectations for more economic stimulus measures from Beijing.
Bulls are expected to prevail in early European trading as well, with financial spreadbetters predicting Britain's FTSE 100 would open 2 to 3 points higher, or up 0.04 percent; Germany's DAX to open 19 to 20 points higher, or 0.16 percent up; and France's CAC 40 to open 5 points higher, or 0.1 percent higher.
"Stock markets have shown us time and again that you don't need a strong economy to have rampant gains. In fact, an economy that is showing fragility has tended to outperform, notably when the central bank is pushing a more accommodative stance," Chris Weston, chief market strategist at IG, wrote in a note.
So bad trade data is good for business.  Well, obviously that cannot be true.  So now the other shoe drops.  The banks will "stimulate the stock market" by issuing even more funny money, hoping to create demand in sectors where there is demonstrably little demand.

This is good for the stock market.  What does it do for real business?  it makes people pouring their pension contributions into the stock market happy, but that necessarily will crash.  (When your old age is horrible, don't ever say it was unfair or unexpected.  You can agree up is down in writing all you want, but when it matters, it won't play out.)

Such is the nature of false economies.  So watch out for false economy business.  For example:
A statement published on the trade show’s official website, which announced the cancellation of the event, said that the anti-graft drive of China has resulted in the ‘restricted access’ of certain Mainland officials.“By that we are just spelling out what we expect for the turnout of the trade show, but not that we’ve already fixed appointments with this particular group of clients,” said Ms. Tung. Nevertheless, the event manager did confirm that the VIP clients that frequent the casino-hotels here are their target audience.“We saw that the [retail] atmosphere in recent terms is really worse than what we expected, and that there is really a dramatic decrease in VIP customers visiting the casinos,” Ms. Tung said. “So, eventually we decided to call off the show for now and reschedule for another date.”The event manager noted that the watch and jewellery trade show is likely to be held again at Grand Emperor Hotel as Macau is still its preferred destination for the event.
Now this is extreme, corrupt Chinese officials buying jewelry in Macau is rather rarified, but a restaurant that depends on expense account government officials is going to find it tough going soon enough.

For the last forty years, who cares who your customers are.  Their credit cards go through.  Now you need ot know who your customers are.  Find out.  Shift your offerings to real economy business.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


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