Monday, April 6, 2015

Good Food Demand Growing

McDonald's cannot revive because the infrastructure to deliver their product is product specific.  Thought experiment: if McDonalds went out of business in a location, could Chipotle move in and open up one of their shops cheaper than building out their own.

No, wrong percent of reefers to freezers, dry to wet stockroom, drink mix, worker to customer area, etc. And the whole place in is the wrong location.  McD cannot trade up to Chipotle, Chipotle cannot rrade down to McD.

Chipotle is designed to deliver fresh, organic, so it cannot be competed against.  McD will become like Dunkin Donuts, always a residual but never again a grower.

The demand for "organic' is growing, and the WSJ reports that sia  problem, what with land prices so high.
Two years ago, Chipotle, which said it seeks to purchase as many organic ingredients as practical, began providing financial incentives to help farmers of black beans in Oregon and Washington transition from conventional to organic production. In 2014, the fast-casual chain paid higher-than-conventional prices for about 500,000 pounds of beans grown on farmland shifting to organic—equal to more than 10% of its organic black-bean purchases—even though it wasn’t able to market those to consumers as organic, a spokesman said. In January, the company said it would suspend sales of pork in about a third of its stores after it discovered a supplier wasn’t complying with its animal-welfare standards.
Well, land prices will drop like a rock in the next few years.  Which will not help the big guys, since they locked in their mortgages at high rates, and they will be forced to sell off at low prices.

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