Friday, March 4, 2016

World Trade Crashing: Ho Hum!

The newest Census report on imports and exports show world trade is crashing for USA too!  Look at it go!  Both imports and exports!  I read the articles too!  Baltic dry index down! Maybe people should gain some perspective!  This is one year!
Much more useful is to observe what has happened over the last 40 years, starting with Nixon going off the gold standard (lite).  Those trend lines accelerate after 1971.

Let's begin with Earl Butz, Nixon's Sec of Agriculture, who announced the policy of USA is "get big or get out."  Now, this does not mean that Uncle Sam was to help only big business, it means they will harm small business at the same time.  Stated policy, enacted means, results achieved.  At what point do you believe them?

Although regulations, taxes, death taxes all helped destroy the family business, even more insidious was unleashing banks to create and lend malcredit, at interest, when previously the vast majority of lending in USA was at no interest, and almost all the rest at cost of loan processing, through thrifts and credit unions.

The trick became rocking the cantillon effect, the more money you borrow, the closer you get to the source, the lower the cost: crush the competition, roll up the industry.

First they came for the USA manufacturers, countless small businesses. And those who fell for the folly of price cutting, down they went.  When the big box stores had wiped out USA industry, then they went to China, whose credit became good, give the untapped resources of the world largest country in people.

That big dip is 2008, which would have been a good peak to end the damage, but as you see in eight years things have gotten much worse, fatter problem.  Well, the next crash will be all that more bad for those engaged in the false economy (if you are employed, have a pension or stock portfolio, own property...  you are probably to that degree tied up in the false economy.  You'll learn how much by how bad this next crash hurts.).

A few points;  the damage is done during the boom, the crash is simply the correction.  The longer the boom, the more gets corrected.

The bottom of a market is not low prices, it is no buyers.  If you think anything is low priced now,  you ain't seen nothing yet.

The right side of the 2nd graph will look like the left, except 40 years of downward.  Deflation instead of inflation.  Rent, don't own.  Delay getting paid, not hurry up and pay me.  Work for yourself, family business with no benefit plans, not a "job with bennies."  This will be the path to wealth, properly defined.  It is the path to your peace and prosperity.

(Incidently, the 2nd is also a graph of the growth of government in USA, and a graph of the growth of microsoft, and so many other false economy monsters.

The drop in exports, small as it is, is mostly big business trades, not small specialty trades, as I have demonstrated here several times.

So get self employed, if retail great.  If wholesale, competing on design, take advantage of the worlds excess capacity to source your items, and in the coming years, when USA real estate crashes (and commercial crashes far faster and deeper than residential) families will be able to start small businesses in USA, manufactories, etc, and slowly we'll see a renaissance in USA small business.

It's about time!

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