Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Black Markets Matter

"That's racist!" When a business is profitable, we say it's "in the black," if not, it's in the red, for black ink denotes positive cash flow, red ink negative.  When I hear "black market" I think of authentic, profitable businesses emerging whenever there is government policy failure (which of course, is everywhere and at all times.)

Mish is wondering at reports of a dearth of new business start-ups.   Mish has an odd take: who cares if new businesses get bought up by Amazon or Google, well let him say it:
When small tech companies get bought out by Google or Apple, is that a problem? It may be the other way around. Google and Apple have large resources to throw at new ideas. Small entrepreneurs don’t.
I have a different tack. I think we lost two generations of entrepreneurs, and we suffer for it.  I think while everyone was away, the progressives had a field day making rules to assure small business cannot start.  Of course, it has always been the case those in government hate small business, so it has always been the case small business has to strive against government intervention.  "Get big or get out" is the mantra.

On the other hand, wherever there is shortage there is a concomitant value.  The fewer the small businesses the more value they are.  It is the big contrarian play right now: start a business.  Check out this graph, fear of start-up:

<http://www.gemconsortium.org/data/key-indicators ...you may  create this and many other graphsupdate them for the day you read this,  for any country you like) >

The upper line is new biz start up, the lower line is fear of start up.  Both swing wildly, in the 100% change range.  No info for the last two years, but do note the trend was both fear and start-up were trending down, from dizzying heights.  If it continues, this is good.  People are afraid, but they are going ahead anyway.  I suppose no one on an ocean cruise wants to jump into the ocean, but if the Titanic is sinking, time to take a dip.

The one big bubble that needs to burst is real-estate.  If we can get rid of Chinese landbanking and banks' failure to mark to market, we'll see a 50 - 80% drop in real estate prices, and then a small biz renaissance will ensue.  Two ways to do this: let interest rates go up to the rectifying 21% or drop adverse possession rules from ten years to three.

In the meantime, plenty going our way - Airline fairs are getting cheap again:
Discover our Autumn Global Sale offers and experience Alitalia’s reimaged Economy Class!
Don’t wait, BOOK by November 6, 2016 for travel from January 9 until May 10 2017! 

Economy Class, All-inclusive roundtrip fares:
New York- Rome839.00 USD
Boston- Milan768.00 USD
Miami- Naples$ 967.00 USD

We need to run credit-extending businesses (never ex nihilo credit) for that implies local knowledge and relationships, a competitive advantage over the dinosaurs. At the retail end of the small business, cash is king, so we need a currency.  Happily, Uncle Sam cannot ever get rid of the currency, due to the greenback's role as the black market currency:
Black markets matter for central banks because they form such a large share of their potential customer base. According to research conducted by economists Ceyhun Elgin and Oguz Oztunali, the size of the black market globally is roughly 25 percent of world GDP, or roughly $28 trillion in 2014 dollars. Since the U.S. dollar remains the most trusted and recognized currency, it is the top choice for global criminal syndicates.
And don't think Uncle Sam does not know it.  Read the whole article.

Ot's too late to enroll in any of my online courses until January,  but not too late to take my live seminar in the Los Angeles area, Orange Coast College, 12 November, 2016.  I'll have my 2017 January seminar dates up in a week or so, but until then, there are a couple of books, which will indoctrinate you, at which point I am happy to assist you as you proceed, found here.

An email from last night:

On Oct 24, 2016, at 4:51 PM, JB wrote:
Yes sir, I went back to the source and I realized where I messed up.. this data pull is amazing..I went and retraced my steps and followed the pdf print out again.. I missed one major step.. re-did it and BINGO.. 

I will forward you the completed spread sheet..

I see now how you pull the HTS numbers,  and store then in your queries.. l appreciate your learning approach it really makes you think and learn..

Sent from my Verizon, Samsung Galaxy smartphone

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.