Monday, November 14, 2016

China USA Trade War?

Trade wars are the precursor to hot wars, and apparently (I never followed the election news) Trump promised to start a trade war with China and slap 45% duties on Chinese products.

During his election campaign this year, Trump spoke of a 45 percent import tariff on all Chinese goods while failing to outline how it would work. Should any such policy come into effect, China will take a "tit-for-tat approach", according to an opinion piece in the Global Times, a newspaper backed by the Communist party.
"A batch of Boeing orders will be replaced by Airbus. U.S. auto and iPhone sales in China will suffer a setback, and U.S. soybean and maize imports will be halted. China can also limit the number of Chinese students studying in the U.S.," the Global Times article read.

Only 45%?  When I began my career in int'l trade back in the early 1970s, I was filling out the form 7501 customs declarations for the goods we were importing from China.  The duties started at 50% on Chinese goods, and went up from there to over 100%.   It wasn't until 1980 Jimmy Carter normalized trade with China that duties went down to the column one rates.  (Another reason Jimmy Carter was my favorite president in my lifetime.)

In effect, did consumers enjoy lower prices at retail on Chinese products due to a landed cost price drop of thirty to fifty percent?  No.  China is a communist country, a command economy, just like USA.  Just as Nixon could command a wage a price freeze, so the ChiComs just commanded that prices to USA importers would rise just right to achieve the same landed cost in USA.  Prices at USA retail changed not.  China merely earned more.  (Another reason it is nuts to trade directly with China, always have a Hong Kong agent. The can get you the lower price other countries pay.)

But this history does not matter, since nothing changed with the election of Trump.  Trump will not slap anything on anyone. It's just a negotiation position. Just as the hegemon scammed liberals with Barack Obama and Bernie Sanders, so the conservators have been had with Trump.  Trump's two big platforms were immigration and Romney/Obamacare, and in his first interview (60 Minutes) he is walking back his promises on both.

I told you.

Also, he is walking back investigating Hillary.  He won't keep any other promises either.

Like I said, I told you.  In fact, one of the tags I have is "election fraud" for which I have 155 posts since I start this blog eight years ago.  If you want a nice book on how fraud works, read "Steal This Vote" it is featured in the list of books on the right side of this blog.  The hegemon is not threatened.

Omnis Victoria Jesu Est.

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