Tuesday, January 24, 2012

The Beginning of the End of Starbuck's

Starbucks began testing the sale of beer and wine in Seattle a year or so back, exactly the right thing to do in this economy, and that is go up market. They are also carefully testing, which is very smart.  They see the middle class is being slaughtered in USA, so they are going after the market that still has money.

Now here is the problem for Starbuck's and every other business in America: if a business is making money, it is subsidized.  The subsidies cannot go on, and that which cannot go on will end.  In time, this market will dry up too.  At that point, the Starbuck's brand will die with the customer base.

JCPenney and Sears were closely identified with the rural, rock-solid, ag world of USA 100 years ago, and never transitioned. Both businesses live off a life-line of usury, which offers diminishing returns given its predatory nature. That world is gone.  Walmart is the suburbs and freeways and welfare checks, still going strong.

Who has money for $4 coffees?  People on their way to work, people married to people on their way to work.  Who is working?  Vast swathes of government workers, and growing, including military, law enforcement, lawyers, etc.  Medicine.  Ag.  Banking and financial services. Education. Web-related industries.  Some housing. No matter what you mention, it is heavily subsidized.  Without China lending us money, we cannot keep these going.  When they stop, it will get even rougher, for far more people.

We have no alternative.  If those "jobs come home" There is no one ready, willing or able to do the work.  The Chinese people were culturally adept and personally eager to embrace modernization and industrialization. They were quite ready for freedom.  Not so in USA.  Entitlements, and an aggrieved sense of entitlement, reigns.  Just look at the Tea Party, with its insistence on revenge where we never insulted, the Occupy Wall Street, demanding they share with the rich in the looting of the poor.

Why is nobody demanding freedom to work?  Why is there no candidate pushing this point, not even Ron Paul (he is for it, but not pushing it.)  Because there is no demand that can be registered.

It is out there.  But it is very marginal. It is showing up in gray and black markets.  As you build your business, pay special attention to other small businesses.  Regardless of what happens, and the troubles ahead, the inconsequential businesses today will survive the changes, in the measure they have real customers who make valuable things and services.

If you invest in the means of production to serve an ersatz market, when they market evaporates, your means of production, in effect your savings, will become worthless.  Think of Bowling Alleys circa 1968. Wineries in 2012.

Be careful as to whom you organize to serve. make sure your customers actually produce something viable and sustainable.  You will grow with them, and your investment in the means of production will increase in value.  So, the means of identifying such customers becomes important.

We have the means, with what I have been teaching, but we need to find more like them faster.  Is there a way to do so?  hmmmmmm...






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