Monday, December 31, 2012

Will Taiwan Become China's New Japan

Strolling down the hallway of the Dong Fang Bingguan circa 1979 I noticed air conditioners in boxes, something with which the hotel heretofore had no experience.  The brand was Toshiba, no big deal.  But the boxes were marked "Made in Taiwan."  This was astonishing because we who traded with both the mainland and Taiwan had to carry two passports, one for each country, such was the rivalry between the two.  I showed the boxes to an astonished US official.

Taiwan has benefitted form China growth, but not commensurate with its natural affinity.  Japan has done very well by China, but now there is trouble in the waters.  As a Japanese province, Taiwan advanced ahead of China, and the more technocratic mainlanders took over in Taiwan in 1949.  As late as November of 2011, individuals from Beijing could not visit Taiwan alone.

Now relations are improving in between the two at a fast pace with travel and investments, to the point that advice from academics is offered:
"To encourage more investment from the Chinese mainland to Taiwan, a fairer mechanism, one without the numerous restrictions, must be established. However, that would require further negotiations between the economic authorities on both sides of the straits," said Dai Shugeng.

"Another important issue is that investment projects should be entirely predicated by market forces. The authorities should back off. Only when the authorities agree not to intervene will more areas be opened in the future," he said.


Now the very interesting point is Professor Dai is on faculty at the university on the Communist side of the straits.  With the one country two systems working out so well vis a vis Hong Kong, might China make it one country, three systems and tolerate another autonomous city state?  If so, Taiwan may become a economic giant in the world, with its underutilized management capacity making people rich on both sides of the straights, as Japan finds Chinese cooperation dwindle.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


0 comments: