Career Advice

Dr. Gary North has an excellent 4 minute seminar on career choices.  Everyone should read and reflect on it.

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Perspective

Here is some data on world trade to help put things in perspective


1. In imports and Exports, Canada is USA's #1 trading partner.   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_the_United_States

2. Per Capita GDP   Hong Kong beats just about everyone.  (the article is headed with a warning that it is out of date, and clicking one finds challenges to the amounts cited for Turkey, Australia and Zimbawe.  In any event, Hong Kong uber alles.)  

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita 

3.  As the % of Chinese goods in the USA economy, we can see

China imports 2010 364 billion   http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html 

USA economy 2010 15 trillion   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_States    .

Divide one into the other, you get about 2.5%.  Chinese goods account for about 2.5% of our economy.

This figure is not secret, the data is available and the San Francisco Fed reported on it.  http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2011/el2011-25.html

Mish Shedlock redid the math and comes up with 2.7%  http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/08/made-in-china-only-27-of-us-spending.html

But step back and reflect.  Your home was not made in China.  Your car was not made in China.  Your education was not made in China.  Your oil was not made in China.  Your food was not made in China.  Your medicine was not made in China. Your insurance is not underwritten in China.  When you think about it, 2.7% seems a little high.

Now you may argue that in the context of buying consumer goods such as toys, clothes, tools, sporting goods, electronics, then the number is much higher as a percentage of USA economy. But none of those are everyday purchases, they are disposable income items, and perhaps it is because we consider such purchases, as opposed to our daily bread, at our leisure, we are misled into thinking all is Chinese.  In any case, China, with 1/4 of the world's population underperforms compared to the collection of smaller, but richer countries that collectively outperform China in each and every category.  And keep in mind, that a toy that costs $1 in China and retails for $5 in USA has $4 of USA economy.  When a $5 item is made overseas, it is only $1 loss to the USA economy (very roughly speaking, but you get my point.)

If tomorrow all trade with China ended, it would not much matter to USA, except for the uber wealthy who launder profits and avoid taxes, legally, by overseas trade worldwide, in which China is a critical player.  I am not advocating ending trade with China, but I certainly advocate ending the rules and regulations that at once punish small business and reward big business.  But that is another topic.

And I hope after week two people are considering world trade in homes, cars, education, medicine, energy, insurance services, since all areas are wide open to innovation.

We need hard facts to proceed. Especially when we are talking about specialty markets.  We can get hard facts on the economy, and to have our premises right sure helps in getting conclusions right.  In the coming weeks we will leverage the feedback from actual buyers (it is a good idea and does not exist) and hard data as to the best place in the world to have something made, to drill down to the best supplier in the world for our product or service.

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Back To School or Forward to Wealth?

Mish is talking today about one thing in particular, older workers going back to school.  In the case one cannot find a job, one can get a "cheap loan" to get an education.  The controversy is what if after incurring $25-100,000 in new debt, you still get no job.  Mish wittily notes java-coders are retraining to be roofers, and roofers are retraining to be java-coders.  Each has high hopes for employment upon graduation.

Low interest rates and easy credit distort the market by contributing to costs going up.  You cannot bankrupt students loans away.  You can escape them by going into the military.  If you do not pay, the government can take it out of your social security payments when you get there.

Education does not cost that much, schools merely charge that much.  School overhead is wildly feather-bedded, and the admin trick is as soon as money gets tight, make it felt in the classroom.  The clients, who have no alternative, scream, and more money is forthcoming.  Problem is, now, no more money.  What to do?  A school that lowers the cost and widens access with ever improving student and instructor satisfaction is quite possible.  Email me if you want a 13 page report.

In the meantime, with less effort than getting a dubious degree, why not start your own business?  According to US Census, despite the downturn, both imports and exports keep growing.

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JFK Intern Story a Fake

it is wrong to tell a story that harms a reputation, even if it is true, unless we need to know for health or safety.  The story about JFK and the 19 year old intern would serve no purpose, even if true. This is just entertainment, even if false.  But it is pretty clear, the story is not true, regardless of what we may know about JFK.

Let me address two things, why does the story appear untrue?  And why would someone spread this untrue story?

First, what do we know?  A 69 yar old women has has authored a story about when she was 19.  So the news is what a 69 year old woman says she did fifty years ago.  This is not a story about JFK.  (The tale she tells may mention JFK, the the story is she wrote a book).

If I said I went to the moon yesterday, it would be an error to report that John Spiers went to the moon yesterday, and any reasonable reporter would not report that.  The story is John Spiers SAID he went to the moon.

Reporters check facts on a story.  If a first person is telling a story, you want it corroborated.   The media is getting around this by reporting that a 69 year old woman wrote a story about herself and JFK.  Now that she wrote a book is corroborated with the publication of the book.  So we know that much.  The rest we have no idea.  it has to be corroborated.

So right off the bat, something is wrong.  But let’s look at what she says in the book.  The uninteresting parts (she was an intern) are verifiable.  The scintillating and pathetic parts are not verifiable. There are no witnesses.  Where witnesses are mentioned, they are long dead.  For this reason alone no one should believe it.

Although I am no writer, I’ve written a couple of books, and I know how hard it is.  This book is very well written, somebody wrote it for her.  That is no big deal in itself, but the way it is written is by someone who is professional at making or breaking images.  The book is designed to be excerpted out into every media level.  And it has, with “JFK intern” having nearly 30 million citations on google

The story is detail laden, an ancient verisimilitude technique.  But whoever crafted this made a beginner’s mistake.  The 19 year old mentions details of her first encounter with Kennedy, he wore 4711 cologne. How would she know?  This 19 year old is an expert of colognes, by scent?  This she remembers 50 years later? There are too many of these to be credible.

In spite of no corroboration, the story manages to put her in the middle of it all, from Jackie’s bed to cuban missile crisis to the night before he died.  All unlikley.

After being conquered, JFK passes the girl around, according to her story, which is extremely tacky, and unlikely.  Maybe pimps do that, but top men are usually jealous of their harems.

Who knows what her motivation would be for telling such a tale.  Money, fame? Or at least notoriety?

I think it is about a return of the Clintons.  Mitt can beat Obama, but not Hillary.  Hillary will win they way Bill won, with the enough conservative vote staying home in disgust at Romney, and what is left split by Ron Paul, just as Ross Perot did for Bill Clinton.  But can we trust bill back around the Oval Office, with all those 19 year old interns?

The Catholic vote is important, and Obama has been set up to enrage that base.  By bringing JFK down to Bill’s level, well, Catholics can feel better about Bill.

At the same time, those Catholics who are running are noisily pro-war, pro-death to Moslems.  To be a great president you must lead in a war.  By allowing pro-war catholics to run as serious contenders, Catholics are being conditioned to accept criminal invasions of countries no threat to us.

Headlines and stories from here on out are about a return of the Clintons.

The story is a plant as part of politics today.  It ain’t true.

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Competition as Market Regulation

Anarchists are not against government, just against fraud and violence, which states claim is their right.  As long as government is voluntary, then fine.  There is plenty of government in anarchy, for example, in a free market, competition regulates the market, and provides a kind of government of peoples behaviour.

From my book, How Small Business Trades Worldwide, a reader writes...

Pg.129 shows your experience in a trade show. You had a better display, selection and "lower prices" and "all items in stock"

... therefore you had stock at lower prices before you got customers....

 ...to which I replied -

*** That is an example of beating someone who thought they had an exclusive.  Believing they had an exclusive, they sought to burn their customers by charging too much.  In a free market, your competitors will protect your customers from you. Competition is the only regulation a market needs.***

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Small Business CRM

One of my bugaboos about software is it is so often written to do too much, probably so software sellers can charge too much.  One reason I have been all Apple all the time since 1984 (except for two regrettable instances in which I simply gave the MSos PCs away) is that Apple tends to do relatively little and very well.  I am delighted to pay extra to have my computers do less nonsense, timewasting stuff.

For Customer Relationship Management (CRM), in which we simply have a database of customer information which we can manage and act upon, years ago I settled on my small business bookkeeping/accounting package called MYOB.  The software not only covered all business accounting, inventory control, and with a simple workaround offered royalty and commission reports, but it kept track of customer activity and allowed me to track customer contact by phone and follow-up for marketing purposes.

I had bought and attempted to use GoldMine and another CRM package long ago (I forget its name), and found, yet again, the programs cost too much to do too much.  MYOB at the time was about $99.  It was perfect.

Now I've used the same version of MYOB that I bought in 1992 up until this year. That is how good and robust the program has been.  Problem is the world has changed a bit since then, and there is more that can be done leveraging the internet.  Like marketing through emails, billing electronically, etc.

In order that I might keep my old copy of MYOB, I began looking at some of the "cloud" CRM packages, in particular Salesforce.com and http://capsulecrm.com/  I won't link to salesforce.com, because my advice is to avoid salesforce.com by all means.  They have an awesome client recruitment process, and then you are on your own.  I think what saelsforce.com offers is abysmal.  Microsoft's advertising campaign to sell microsoft's CRM is obviously based on the horror of trying to use salesforce.com.  Salesforce.com claims over 100,000 users.  Well, I paid, but never used it.  And for #1 in the category, 100,000 does not seem like a lot of users.

CapsuleCRM is great, with a freebie account for companies with less than 250 contacts to manage.  That just would not work for me.  Above that the pricing is fair, but more expensive than buying a copy of Accountedge.

So I took another look at MYOB.  MYOB changed its name to Acclivity about a decade ago.  The software is called Accountedge, and has basic, pro and network versions, both PC and Mac.  Still $99, which is about half of what $99 was 20 years ago. So I broke down and bought a new version that figures taxes down to the town level (not an issue for a wholesaler) but has all of the internet connectivity and processing benefits and even better CRM.

The help with what was new with Accountedge from live people was awesome, whereas once I had paid, any help from salesforce.com struck me as insulting.

Acclivity seems to have partnered to some degree with Apple, and Apple is quietly building breadth and depth in retail and other commerce systems.  You can check all that out by nosing around the Acclivity website.

This software has been around longer than Quicken and Money, and its origins is in accounting and CRM, something probably few current employees know, but was a factor in my decision to buy it way back in 1990.

Although you can find a copy in many Apple stores and some Office Depots and such, I'd recommend you just buy it direct from Acclivity and download your version.  Here is a strategy I recommend.

You can download a free 30 day trial.  Do so when you have time to work on it during the free trial.  Write down all of your questions, because if you decide to buy, you get 30 days free customer support.  Burn through any questions during that free time.

And say you use it and like it, they will pay you $100 if you recruit another user to buy it!  (No, I am not a part of that program, this is an uncompensated endorsement).

And, they will give your CPA a free copy, so he can easily do your taxes, etc.

And overseas, Accountedge is still sold as MYOB, for whatever reason.

For $99 pc or mac, this is the way to go.

***John Spiers will be offering an all-day seminar on small business international trade start up at Orange Coast College, Los Angeles Area, June 29, 2013.  Full info here...***

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China's Next Great Leap

With Hong Kong moving ahead of USA and London as a source for financial transactions, Communist Party initiatives may be all the more worth considering.

The fountain head for information on China State initiative information is the Communist Party.

As I mentioned last week, the Chinese want to clean up business practices, and to quote from an article:

BEIJING, Oct. 19 (Xinhua) -- China will strive to establish a social credit system nationwide to ensure sound and healthy social and economic development, China's State Council, or Cabinet, said Wednesday.

China needs to create an honest and faithful society through system improvement and enhanced education, as lack of credibility remains a prominent problem, according to a statement released after a State Council executive meeting chaired by Premier Wen Jiabao.

Within the party there are various schools of thought, and debate among various approved news outlets, similar to what we have in the USA with the right wing Washington Times and the left wing Washington Post, or the right wing WSJ editorial page and left wing WSJ front page, or Fax vs CNN.

There are two party organs to watch, the liberal China Daily and the more hard core People’s Daily.  Here is the article covered by both:

China Daily

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/usa/business/2011-10/20/content_13940066.htm

People's Daily

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90778/7621765.html

Now both articles are essentially the same, originating from Xinhua News Agancy, (New China News Agency). 

Here is a kind of follow-up article which are the parts of such campaigns... China Daily 

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2011-12/29/content_14349109.htm

And the People's Daily

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90780/7620945.html

This should give you a sense of the differences of the editorial outlook of the two organs. And here is a site that allows you to track back to the source, which can be interesting.

http://www.cpcchina.org/2011-10/19/content_13942951.htm

What we see is the Chinese Government recognizes a problem, which is the start of the campaign.  They are introducing solutions, such as developing and IPR regime, at the behest of Western governments who have made it a requirement to be a member of the WTO.  

But there are problems with IPR, one being China was wealthy and creative in the past without IPR, Hong Kong moves to #1 without IPR, and IPR is a western cultural artifact, and may not work in the Chinese milieu.

By these articles China is also announcing the means for measuring progress, and that is credit files on every Chinese citizen.  No doubt a credit file is a measure of something, but I am not sure what.  Perhaps the Chinese authorities are using the term in a way that makes sense to the Chinese, and it translates poorly.  I'd like to know about this.

So what we have is a recognition of a problem, a tentative and doubtful solution, and a means for measuring progress.  the authorities are exercising more options than those officially announced, and perhaps some treatment will emerge that is valid and reliable.

If IPR was the solution, then China would be flogging it more and looking for alternatives less.  When the articles say

Meanwhile, the government should enhance its own credibility by increasing transparency, and strengthen education on social honesty, it said.

it is a giveaway the authorities are still open to other methods, although specifically here the party is referring to its government.  Rating services like Yelp may do far more to improve matters than an IPR regime.

Of course, when searchign for the terms used by the communist party, you are likely to end up at a white house website.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/TransparencyandOpenGovernment

Sigh.

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