Take a wild guess.
Online sales as a percentage of retail sales is still tracking less then 6%. Mail order catalogs got to about 8% by the mid 1980s. Therefore, in spite of nothing stopping online sales from going through the roof, online sales are still below 6% of all retail sales.
Further, the WSJ, via Mish, is reporting about a third of online sales are returned. Still trying to figure out of 5.8% is gross or net of returns.
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Online sales as a percentage of retail sales is still tracking less then 6%. Mail order catalogs got to about 8% by the mid 1980s. Therefore, in spite of nothing stopping online sales from going through the roof, online sales are still below 6% of all retail sales.
“Up, up, and away” is how we could describe e-commerce sales. The U.S. Census released Q2 data on e-commerce sales – and sales are up 18% from this time last year.Now accounting for 5.8% of total retail sales, we can only expect to grow through the rest of 2013 as more brick-and-mortar companies open online storefronts before the holidays, and web retailers grow their businesses.Isn't the hype funny? "Up up and away"? I predict online sales will never reach above 8% in USA.
Further, the WSJ, via Mish, is reporting about a third of online sales are returned. Still trying to figure out of 5.8% is gross or net of returns.
Behind the uptick in e-commerce is a little known secret: As much as a third of all Internet sales gets returned, according to retail consultancy Kurt Salmon. And the tide of goods flowing back to retailers is rising. Shipper United Parcel Service Inc. UPS +0.15% expects returns to jump 15% this season from last year, making them a significant and growing cost for retailers.
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6 comments:
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303640604579296900799939482
I think it depends on the type of business. Wouldn't it be easier and more convenient to buy airline tickets, make hotel reservations, rent cars, through an online website?
Than what? The telephone? You bet... but 64% of all air tickets sold are still by travel agents, not to mention cruises and other mediated-purchase travel. Travel Agency is still a growth business. People may email their travel agent rather than call, but they are still using travel agents. When airlines stopped paying commissions, travel agents started adding other values. When I took the family on a complex multi-country trip I just turned it over to a travel agent. Sure, I buy an SFO RT online, and apparently that kind of travel is 36%, so certainly bigger than 6%. But it is not as big as people imagine.
http://www.asta.org/News/PRdetail.cfm?ItemNumber=11015&navItemNumber=491
What about publishing? I have not bought a book from a local bookstore in years. I use Amazon exclusively for buying books now. My local B&N bookstore closed recently.
I am a publisher.
I buy a book from a bookstore about once a month, usually used books.
Neither your practice nor mine indicates anything, for any conclusion will suffer from the error of the narrow basis of comparison.
All mega-booksellers will die, because their model was wasteful: those million copy bestsellers? 500,000 are sent back for shredding, that is a fact.
Small bookstores are doing just fine. The amazon model of selling used books next new books was learned from Powells in Portland, introduced some 40 years ago. Amazon is noting new.
Special ordering a book from a bookstore goes back a hundred years or more. Now bookstores can order it from Amazon, and bookstores can seek out long tail demand on amazon. Brick and mortar may very well be what props Amazon up, the two have become so intertwined.
A book is still a top gift item (I received three at christmas) and will forever be a decor item (your books on your shelves introduce you.)
In the last decade revenue from kindle sales has gone from zero to 10 percent) or about 25% of the net) for sales of my books on amazon. I like it!
If an when the print book or the bookstore dies I'll be the first to know.
And the game is not over. Google is making a reader that will work with independent booksellers, so every bookstore is an amazon.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304325004579297013286061406?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304325004579297013286061406.html
Could it be different this time? maybe not:
"Rocket Internet's ventures world-wide generated about $3 billion in revenue in 2013, it says. So far, many are unprofitable, among them its Nigerian e-commerce business, called Jumia."
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2014/01/retail-death-rattle.html
"The media continues to peddle the storyline of on-line sales saving the ancient bricks and mortar retailers. Again, the talking head pundits are willfully ignoring basic math. On-line sales account for 6% of total retail sales. If a dying behemoth like JC Penney announces a 20% decline in same store sales and a 20% increase in on-line sales, their total change is still negative 17.6%. And they are still left with 1,100 decaying stores, 100,000 employees, lease payments, debt payments, maintenance costs, utility costs, inventory costs, and pension costs."
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