Saturday, June 22, 2013

Scaring Small Business Is Job #1

Here is a Bloomberg/Businessweek Q&A:
Question: How can I find out about the laws of countries I want to do business in, like South Korea? —W.D., New York, N.Y.
Answer: Once you are ready to export, you may want to hire a consultant who is an expert in the country you are targeting—perhaps an immigrant who has active business ties overseas and knows the country, language, and culture first-hand. But before you go to that expense, start by investigating the free and low-cost services offered to small business owners by the states and the federal government.
Let me address two problems here, and a solution.  There is the general problem inasmuch as such advice scares people away from doing business.  These elements, "ready to export" "hire a consultant" "seek free services.." all add complexity where none exists.  The answers ignore the reality of export trade.  Answers that scare people away from business are not helpful.

Forget "export-ready" and think "sales-ready."  Forget consultants and services since the people necessary to the transaction are sufficient to the transaction.  First and foremost you'll have no better advice than that you will get from your customer overseas as to what laws with which one must comply.  Second your freight forwarder will execute the documents necessary, and if not tell you what you need before you even make a sale.  You can know all you need to know in advance, at no cost to you, with the MOQ FOB offer strategy.

The answer in the article ignores the problem implicit in the question: the export wannabee assumes his first sale will be some FCL.  He's probably under the mistaken impression that an LC is security.    He imagines his first order will be a FCL with LC payment.    He wonders at his value, the reason he would be paid, and he hopes it has to do with gathering esoteric knowledge as to the export process.  Knowledge is power is money.  The Bloom/BizWeek answer complements his ignorance.

What no one in the Q&A seems to realize is that any serious B2B buyer is looking for test orders.  Buyers want small shipments to test the market primarily, and the systems secondarily. And test orders are in part a test of the system in place that no one can absolutely know in advance.  Any "expert" cannot possibly keep up with the rapid changes in rules and regs worldwide.  It ain't for nothing we refer to "trade lanes."   Goods are sent over in a test amount, and see what happens.  if it is promising, the frequency picks up.  If that is promising, volume picks up.  In time what was just crossing a lawn begins to look like a path, then a road.  By that time it is settled, and a pretty safe trade lane.  The idea that one can just start shipping 40' of whatever into a country is delusional.  The idea such introductions will have no opposition is ludicrous.  The belief that if you know the rules, you can comply and depend on fair treatment is naive.  And to think you can comply, is contrary to reality. Every int'l trade shipment has a problem.  Usually these problems can be overcome.  Sometimes not.    Better to lose a $2500 shipment than a $25,000 shipment.  And in every instance the risk ought to be on the buyer, not the seller.

Critical to export success is the freight forwarder who tells you what is necessary in terms of documents to get the goods out of the USA,  The buyer worries about what is necessary in terms of the documents needed to get products into his country, wherever in the world that might be.

With a MOQ FOB offer, prepaid, you are export ready because you are sales ready.  (Exporting is not a business, selling things is a business.)  The buyer prepays, you turn the shipment over to a freight forwarder with the documents required. The freight forwarders talk to the overseas importer's customsbroker, and they deal with all of those problems you are supposed to anticipate by speaking to a outside consultant.  Your freight forwarder, who will speak to the customsbroker, is necessary and sufficient to the task.

If you depend on outside consultants, if they are wrong, which is very likely, then you are wrong, and then you have the moral obligation for getting it right. No good deed goes unpunished.  Any buyer worth his salt will try to get you to take on as much work as he can do so.  Your job is to say no. The more work you are doing for the same money, the less you are being paid.  Look at the work requested, price it out, and decide if you want to do it, at that price.

Two reasons the MOQ FOB is so detailed:

1. So the buyer sees you are professional, you are "export ready" (well, sales ready.)

2.  Those add-on costs are usually not dutiable, so the buyer can declare the dutiable (ExW) price alone.

3. Certain buyers will see other options, and request those.

4. The buyer sees all risk is on his part.

And keep in mind,  nine out of ten of these export orders will never generate a re-order.  They are tests.  If you study the regs in every market for every product, your business will die for fruitless work.  Search and learn and work with the customers, that 1 in 1000 that has actually found a market for your goods somewhere overseas.  Then some research would be fruitful.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Friday, June 21, 2013

Why Are Chinese B2B Websites So Bad?

Perhaps because Chinese businessmen are so smart.  (Freedom does that to you.)

As I search the net for suppliers, I avoid alibaba and other such portals like the plague that they are.  I do love the HKTDC.com, for its rational limits on what it offers.  Good work there by an independent industry association.  If states are to fund portals, they might do well to study the HKTDC.com.

As I come across Chinese B2B websites, they are rather slapped-together affairs, not much time or money put into them methinks.

Are they making a mistake?  I think not.  Most B2B websites I see out of Europe and USA are a total waste of time and money.  Pretty, engaging in a way that suits people raised on the mind-disabling Sesame Street quick cut technique, but nothing that will generate the sales to warrant the investment in the website.  I'd like to see proof of ROI on websites.

The ads and websites-as-ads violate all advertising fundamentals, and I think they are driven by a false economy.  A reliable source told me that he was awaiting his paycheck from Gawker because GM was awaiting their bailout money from the taxpayers to pay for the ads Camaro placed on Gawker.

If you were to withdraw the advertising paid for by banks (Ally = GM), the military, food, and all of the other heavily subsidized and false-economy players, what would the internet advertising look like.  I believe the amount of false-economy advertising is effectively driving bad advertising practice on the web.

I do not doubt people are making money with bad advertising, Gawker did get paid, but it was thanks to taxpayers, not thanks to customer demand.

I cannot waste money on advertising.  Every cent has to return.  I have experimented widely, and failed to make online advertising pay.  Now that could very well be my own incompetence.  But I've also spent 15 years challenging self-described experts to prove to me that can make online advertising pay.  No takers yet, in spite of the fact I offer a $47.50 affiliate fee on a $95 sale.  So far no one can bring in a $95 dollar sale for less than $95 from web advertising.  I defy any and all developers and online ad agencies to prove me wrong.  (Being proven wrong would mean new income for me, so I earnestly desire to be proven wrong.)  The years go by, zero takers on my offer.

Sure, I can buy an increase in hits, but a hit is not a sale.  if I pay for advertising, it must repay itself and bring in new business.  I cannot afford to waste money on advertising, or worse, pay to bring in time-wasting unfruitful inquiries.

At the same time, ads placed in the ancient paper medium still brings in customers at about $7 each.

With their relative freedom, Chinese B2B sellers cannot depend on a bailout to fund their "advertising" adventures.  Therefore, when offered spurious website claims, they wisely reject them and put up any old thing. It does not matter.

If and when someone offers them a website that DOES bring in business, a website that is more valuable to them than what it costs, then maybe they will listen.  I know of no web developer anywhere that offers a website that is worth the investment.

Prove me wrong.

If you want an orientation on proper attitude on advertising, read Oglivy on Advertising.



Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Food and Obesity

I eat two meals a day and I do not snack.   For my metabolism, that is enough.  I exercise vigorously regularly.  I tend toward good food, and avoid GMO like the plague it is.  My sleep pattern is something like 3 3 4 5 1 8 that is the numbers in bold my sleeping, and the plain numbers awake and working or whatever.  There is nothing standard, but then none of us is standard.

Now comes news that they want to make obesity a disease.  Well, outside the rare medical condition, obesity is a matter of not chewing your food.  Chewing blends saliva with food as a predigestion function, and chewing breaks down the tougher fibers.

If you wonder how most of the world can (literally) live on a few dollars a day, in large part their food is more wholesome, they chew it properly, which means better nutrition at a fraction of the cost.  They eat less because less is needed to live.  The starvation only comes in to play when the local markets are destroyed by mega-food dumped in their markets.

I am not comparing myself to the obese, because I am pretty sure in their situation I may end up the same way.  But when I was at a point where I could have gone down any path, there were so many other paths open.  I am very sure that many people quit for being discouraged by the lack of opportunity that is the goal of progressive politics.  Look at the options: Ikea for furniture, McDonalds for food, Section 8 for housing,  Safeway for groceries, Macy's for clothes, RomenyObamacare for medicine, the state for education, and government owned religion and media.   Sure, you can still opt out, ironcially, if you have one of the $200,000 a year contractor jobs for the NSA.  (Talk about opting out!)

Subsidized foods like McDonalds and KFC are robbed of food value in processing then topped off for instant gratification.  When you bite into a KFC chicken, the mmmmmm is in the coating, and the chicken itself quickly has no flavor, so one swallows that rather unchewed.  Take another bite to get the satisfation, and so on.  As subsidized food, you get a lot of "food" to gulp down, and you get little food value, and so more and more one eats, and gets obese. Same with soda pops.  It is no secret the welfare/foodstamp system allows this food to be charge by the poor to the taxpayers.  it is a great racket.

When obesity is a disease, then all of the means to reduce obesity become under FDA control.  You'll have to see a doctor to lose weight.  And the doctor will have some new drugs for you, to prescribe.

Now, also comes news that 70% of Americans are on prescription drugs.  Talk about a racket -
Mayo Clinic researchers report that antibiotics, antidepressants and painkiller opioids are the most common prescriptions given to Americans. Twenty percent of U.S. patients were also found to be on five or more prescription medications.
Where to start?  Antibiotics #1?    No wonder MRSA is the #1 killer in hospitals.  We can beat that with bacteriophages, but we cannot have those in USA.  Antidepressants?  You do not feel happy?  Did you know that passion means "to suffer" and joy is a by-product on solving what causes you to suffer?  If you take a pill to avoid the suffering, you deny the rest of us the good of what you would joyfully produce if you contributed your efforts and sought the solutions we all need.  Painkillers?  some of that is abused, some of it is legit.  For the legit, we need to open up the markets to more natural things, like opium.

Huxley wrote Brave New World in which everyone would be stoned into submission.  Orwell wrote 1984 where we would be under totalitarianism.  The big question 50 years ago was which one would win?  We learn today both did.

One step toward freedom would be to deregulate medicine completely, and we'd see a dotcom boom sized economic recovery.  About the state, I think only truth commissions will work.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


It is Unravelling...

China is taking the right action by taking away the punch bowl, and nothing like a little Ghost of Maoists past to tamp down resistance...
“The central bank wants to send a message to banks to be more cautious in their risk control and to improve their own liquidity management,” said Peng Wensheng, an economist with China International Capital Corp. “It is saying that you cannot expand credit as you like, and then simply rely on the central bank to back you up.”
China is doing the right thing first.  Dressing it up in Maoist costume will certainly give people cause about criticizing.  But being the first to begin the clean-up will be the earliest to recover.  Buckle up!

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Thursday, June 20, 2013

Live In Person Los Angeles Import Start-up Seminar

If you want to start up and you'll be in the Los Angeles area June 29, 2013, I will be offering an all-day seminar on small business international trade start up at Orange Coast College.   It is an intense exercise coming at every aspect of getting launched.

One participant in my last seminar came up to me at the first break and said "You know, you never introduced yourself."  That's right, this seminar is about you, not me, and I don't waste any of your eight hours.  And yes, you'll leave with your head reeling, but you'll have after course email access to me for help proceeding.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Easy Credit and Trade Shows and Websites

In my book written a while back I make clear start-ups NEVER want to have their own trade show booth, since they will not get enough orders to warrant the cost.  Certainly, a start up should contract with an independent sales rep who has a booth at the show, who will show your product along with others and get paid only for performance.  But your own booth?  Never!

If you are not writing enough orders at a show to cover the cost of the booth by ten times then don't do the booth. A $5,000 booth should get you minimum $60,000 in orders which may yield only $50,000 in sales.  At that is assuming a 10% net profit, in other words, a break even at least.

The easy credit of the last few decades has made matters worse.  People do not even think in terms of getting any orders in a booth.  The idea of a booth is a booth gives exposure!  So what?  Exposure is not sales.  I believe this attitude crept in with the easy money booms over the last three decades.  Since people got EZCredit to start a business, they did not bother to build a market organically.  Just show the products at a show and see what happens.  Massive failure, but who cares, you can always get a job at Google, Microsoft, Verizon, TSA or one of the other intel operations.

I've even recently gotten pushback on trade-shows-as order-writing events, as opposed to trade lead events.

So I recommend a change in attitude: if it is not about writing orders, do not do it.  Search MOQ on this site and you'll see much on websites, which also are disconnected form order writing.  I am working on tying the various threads into a cutting edge whole.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Ron Wyden, Do Not Get On An Airplane!

One of the rare investigative reporters in USA had a terrible accident, Soviet Style, after writing this:

Outside of Washington, D.C., the frustration that Wyden and Udall have felt has been exponentially magnified. Transparency supporters, whistleblowers, and investigative reporters, especially those writers who have aggressively pursued the connections between the corporate defense industry and federal and local authorities involved in domestic surveillance, have been viciously attacked by the Obama administration and its allies in the FBI and DOJ.

Then he named names of real reporters in this article and what they are facing:

Thomas Drake James Rosen, John Kirakou,
Jacob Appplebaum, Barrett Brown, .


Well, with all the reporters reading the article, comes the news that died in a horrible high speed accident(?).  Nothing left of him, according to the video made to make sure everyone gets the message.

Yes, I think we have elements in the regime that make examples.  We need to restore law and order within the United States.  We need truth commissions to get us out of this.  Now it could just as easily be agentes provocateur scheming to provoke something.  That is the problem with living in extremis, you'll never know who actually did it.

Without truth commissions.

In the meantime, Ron Wyden, DO NOT get on an airplane!

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Warnings on Letters of Credit

Read Mish for a good handle of economic news, which is trending toward a bottom.  Keep in mind the bottom is not low prices, the bottom is no sales.  For example in real estate, we did not bottom in 2010 because things were still selling, albeit at lower prices.  There needs to be a decade of almost no sales, say 1935-45, to know you've reached bottom.  Anyone buying real estate today, indeed the last decade, will see the price of that asset drop dramatically, until it is essentially worthless.  Then it will begin to appreciate again.  Prices must fall for the economy to recover.  Wages of college graduates are falling, which is a good sign.   The safety nets assure that things will get far worse, because safety nets hide the market signals which would guide people in the best allocation of resources.  As we see presently at all levels of The State, the depth and breadth, command and control is gone.  We are now seeing the order out of chaos, people cooperating in the absence of State interference, well, trending up anyway.

The State will re-assert itself in some way, adjust to make sure it does not become irrelevant.  One disaster looming is a currency crisis, which will bring back the Letter of Credit, a payment mechanism The State hijacked as a currency control mechanism.  When the currency crisis spins out of control, control will be re-asserted by means of requiring letters of credit in international trade.  We've been there before, we'll see it again.

As an expert on this instrument, let me make some early points:

1. Letters of Credit are sold by banks as security in an international trade transaction, thus warranting the high fees.  Letters of Credit provide no security whatsoever.  The only security you have in international trade is your relationship.  If something goes wrong with a transaction, you have no recourse except whatever the other party agrees to.  There are no situations in which if you lose money using a letter of credit, the bank will make you whole.  There are situations in which a letter of credit is involved in which you will lose your money.  Therefore, it is true, you can lose money while employing a letter of credit.  The risk exposure rate is running about 80% with letters of credit.

2. Because letters of credit are sold as security, they are a preferred method of advancing fraud.  Since the USA side of the deal is under the mistaken impression that the letter of credit provides security, it is all the easier for people intent on fraud to use the system to defraud Americans.  If you are defrauded, you have zero recourse.  Your money will not be coming back, or, if you are on the other side of the transaction, you'll never get your goods back.

If any banker desires to debate me on this, I will lay him waste with facts and figures and examples. Plus I'll produce bankers who will say the same thing I am saying.  We might not be able to escape a requirement to use letters of credit some time in the future, but the banks would do good to make clear that letters of credit are no security to the parties in an international trade transaction.

If we get back to where letters of credit are required, and I can see that happening easily, then the fundamental point will need be all the more emphasized: relationship is everything in international trade.  If you cannot trust your business partner overseas, don't do business with them.  Especially with a letter of credit as a payment mechanism.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Frontiers of Medibles: Dope Fed Pork

Washington State has legalized marijuana and there whole bunch of experimentation going on.  Dude. The home of Starbuck's is also home to dope-fed pork.
“The pig farmer has been feeding them marijuana for the last two and a half months of their life and they’ve been happy as hell,” said William Von Schneidau, owner of the BB Ranch at Pike Place market.
This medibles trend is growing, and an end to prohibition always brings economic progress.

Dude.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Private Firefighters

70% of the firefighters in USA are volunteers.  Every bit as talented and trained as the paid version, but they just volunteer their fire suppression and rescue services.  And there is another category of firefighter, the insurance firefighter.
Morris is among a group of private firefighters hired in recent years to protect homes with high-end insurance policies. In a wildfire season that is one of the busiest and most destructive ever to hit the region, authorities and residents say their help is welcome.
The story is we needed paid firefighters because unpaid firefighters fought over the right to get paid fighting fires for insurance companies, and alternatively, if you could not afford insurance, you house would be allowed to burn down.

That kind of thing, letting a house burn down for unpaid insurance, only happens when you have paid firefighters. Repeatedly these days.

Well, insurance companies hire who they want, and certainly don't hire people who brawl while buildings burn.  For those without insurance, volunteer firefighters, then and now, did the trick.

Here is a great place to cut city expenses and taxes: convert to all volunteer firefighters, go from 70% to 100%

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Monday, June 17, 2013

850K Employees @ $200K/year

So security clearance level is linked ot income level in the government.  Snowden made $200K, and there are 850,000 people with his security clearance level.

Payroll mulcted form taxpayers: $1700 000 000 000...  I am not used to numbers that big, but I believe that is one trillion, 700 billion dollar per year.  That cannot be right?  Maybe a lot of those people are military who make $60,000 per year, but their overhead (offices, staff etc) certainly brings it above $200,000 in cost each.

And these people cannot stop the Boston bombing, let along 9-11.

One reason things are so expensive in USA is there are 850,000 people pulling down a few hundred thousand, to do really nothing.  This bids prices up on everything.

Turn the loose to find work in the productive sectors.  This will help our economy.

A quote form Snowden:


"This is a man who gave us the warrantless wiretapping scheme as a kind of atrocity warm-up on the way to deceitfully engineering a conflict that has killed over 4,400 and maimed nearly 32,000 Americans, as well as leaving over 100,000 Iraqis dead.  Being called a traitor by Dick Cheney is the highest honor you can give an American."
 
Edward Snowden



Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Sunday, June 16, 2013

Export Websites Done Right

If you hope to export one element that must be on your website is the FOB MOQ page.  This page needs to have a means to make a payment immediately, usually by TT.  Here a pearl exporter has a good example.

Paypal or "escrow" services are not considered professional means of payment, so I would avoid those.  A major credit card is becoming more and more an option (and certainly a debit card would work) but paypal just rides on the major credit card system, it is not the same thing.  The difference matters to most professional buyers.  And finally paypal has a $1500 limit, making it unusable.

These pages are meant to be a means to develop FCL shipments.  they should never suggest they are a means to facilitate a retail sale.  Never should the page have "beginners instructions" because the page it directed to pros, not beginners.  With no beginners instructions, here again the design of the page scares flakes away, so you only hear from pros, serious B2B buyers.

And recall the FOB MOQ page quotes an FOB price.  So the buyer at that point is wondering what is the cost of getting the product from the sellers port to my port?  At this point of the FOB MOQ webpage you should is to have the means for the buyer to get a freight quote immediately.  So you link to the major carriers, if possible to their rate desks.  More on this as we proceed...

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


East Germany "Intelligence Service" Disappeared and the World Was Better

I credited Snowden with being smart, although I questioned his choice of Hong Kong as a refuge.  Now he appears to be brilliant.  He is using Hong Kong as a base from which to reveal crime doing by USA individuals. Very good.  We need official criminality exposed.

Yes, Hong Kong and USA have strong extradition treaties (subject to Beijing's pleasure) but as a humane polity Hong Kong will not extradite anyone subject to cruel and unusual punishment.  Since Gitmo and the treatment of Bradley Manning are par for the course in the Soviet USA, there is no way Hong Kong will extradite Snowden.  And China will delight in the USA being hoisted on its own petard.

How did we get such a collection of 3rd stringers in office?  O! Yes, of course, election fraud in USA.  Which will never be investigated because everyone in USA has a dossier that would ruin anyone who stands up to the powers that be.

One day one of the most dire abusers of civil rights and surveillance was in business, and the next day not.  That country was East Germany.  We could eliminate the NSA, FBI, CIA, ETC and experience the peace and prosperity the East Germans had thereafter.

But we'd have to be as alarmed at government wrongdoing as the people of Hong Kong, who yet again, take to the streets the instant their privileges are threatened.

The NSA has said they do not keep the phone records more than five years.  The IRS makes us keep such records 7 years.  Since they are being stored, why does the NSA need to store them too?

So they can do META analysis.  Why not ask the Phone companies to do the META analysis and IF they find troubling patterns in the use of their property in violation of the contract of carriage, then they can share such patterns for law enforcement to use as a basis for a warrant for a look-see.  Faster, cheaper, more secure.  But Oh no, we have to do things that are inefficient, sneaky, wasteful and violate our security.

If you want to see what East Germany was like under a total surveillance state, here is a 2 hour instructional video.  If you have nothing to hide, then there is no reason for the state to have a look.  If they can look, state functionaries can and will abuse the information they have.


Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.