Friday, January 17, 2014

No Deflation, No Economic Recovery

It is simply not possible to have an economic recovery without deflation.

Deflation is a monetary event, where the prices of goods and services drop due to a concomitant reduction in the units of currency.  That is to say, if fewer units of currency, the fewer units it takes to buy something, so the price appears to be falling.

Food, housing, medicine, clothing, education, security, you name it, they are all overpriced and we are slowly but surely being destroyed by the current economic regime, which wreaks havoc through inflation, the creation of currency in excess of assets.  The people on the commanding heights say:
The growing danger of deflation threatens to derail the global economic recovery, Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said on Wednesday as she stressed that the world had yet to put the financial crisis behind it.
“With inflation running below many central banks’ targets, we see rising risks of deflation, which could prove disastrous for the recovery,” said Ms Lagarde, in a speech at the National Press Club in Washington. “If inflation is the genie, then deflation is the ogre that must be fought decisively.”
Of course they would say that.  How absurd!  What recovery?  You see any recovery?  Not me!  What they are really saying is "We need to continue your slow motion devastation so we can have more stuff you cannot have."  Politics today is no better than that.

Deflation will signal they have lost control and the free market is making adjustments.  When your paycheck is smaller in terms of units, but it takes even fewer units to buy what you need and want, then you'll know the economy is improving.

Until there is deflation, your destruction will continue.  The only indication things are improving, that the powers that be have lost their death grip on your prosperity, is when you see prices falling.

One reason you never learned Latin in school is you might read and learn that this has all been done before, and you can see exactly how it will turn out.

Say, how about those SeaHawks?

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


4 comments:

Anonymous said...

What effects, if any, good or bad, would deflation in the U.S. have on international trade? How would deflation affect a small business importing products manufactured in foreign countries? What about a small business exporting American products to foreign buyers? Would it depend on the country?

John Wiley Spiers said...

Depends on what side of the bet you took, or if you played a bet. Just as inflation is destructive to good work, deflation is destructive to bad work. False economies fail in deflation, they are formed in inflation.

In any event, a business will arbitrage the circumstances, given what vagaries emerge. No predicting macroeconomics, or for that matter microeconomics.

Matthew said...

John you lost me on the last paragraph about learning latin. Can you expound on that a little bit?

John Wiley Spiers said...

Education was once built around the classics, with Latin and Greek and studies of history etc if not in the original, at least in translation. Problem is, day by day, we see precisely what happened before being played again, to people who no longer recognize the game.

Puppets in place while bread and circuses abound (EBT cards! Go SeaHawks!) and war to unify are all well trod paths. What is taught is "American Exceptionalism" when what we have is Roman decline redux.