Thursday, February 13, 2014

Overwrought Business Ideas

This has been the week for people sharing with me the most complicated business ideas, just the explaining takes a long time to hear.

This seems to comport with Von Mises observation that the entrepreneur's product is necessarily the result of a more complex production model, but I think Von Mises was observing the simple fact that commodities have worked out, rationalized and economized to the maximum the production process, where entrepreneurs are cobbling together disparate elements to come up with the innovative product.

Hopelessly complex is not the same as necessary and sufficient.

The main text of the narratives in these is the recitation of all the facts that support the idea.  If I can get a a grant to have a university to do research on hemp as a building material, then I get 132, 131, 130, 129 other things in line, I will get rich.  If I can get grocery stores to source half-baked pizzas form pizzerias and the 47, 46, 45 steps in line...  if I can get jute turned into a polymer and then remanufactured volkswagen transmissions to Bengla Desh, and then 765, 764, 763...and so on steps to line up... I am on my way.

I think the complexity satisfies the anxiety around competition.  Complexity might serve as a barrier to entry.  Life is a challenge when what you like least your customers like most: competition.

The reason I understand this is because I also once tried to run those types of projects, and have as a lecturer run into countless more over the years.  I understand completely.  Then I heard an old English proverb:

Many a slip twixt the cup and the lip.

Indeed, ever spilt wine on yourself?

There is smoked black cod in Seattle.  There are people who would enjoy smoked black cod in Hong Kong.  Getting one to the other, working out that deal will challenge just about anyone.  But it is a far more likely event, and even if you get a "no" you get a "no, because..." and then have information you can act on and possibly get to yes.

But but but, anyone can sell smoked black cod to Hong Kong.  Yes, but no one is.  And in time you'd find competition.  And then you'd have to work at it.

Imagine that!  Life can be competitive.  But then competition makes everyone better and please customers the most.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


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