Tuesday, March 11, 2014

The Currency Crack-up

Not sure why I started studying usury and such, maybe it is intuitive, but two very smart people wrote a book reviewed by Mish:
No one knows and importantly, Turk and Rubino don't claim to know either. Rather they outline a number of possible scenarios including a "Debt Jubilee", "Crypto-Currencies", a flight to tangible assets in general and gold in particular, currency wars, capital controls, wealth taxes, and bank bail-ins.
Exactly... or all of the above, none of which is good for anyone owing debt.  (Debt Jubilee will be for what banks owe us, not for what you owe the banks.)  A flight to tangible assets means the means of production, your baking oven or reputation with people in trade, that is to say, your business will be exponentially more valuable.  On the other hand...
"After reading the preceding 26 chapters of this book, a very reasonable conclusion might be to borrow as much fiat currency as possible and use the proceeds to buy hard assets ... This is a seductive thought, but it rests on a flawed assumption that powers-that-be will simply let debtors walk away from their obligations... It becomes easy to envision bankers arranging to have debt contracts rewritten to have debt paid back at fair value, not depreciated currency". 
Exactly.  You choices will be poverty or the military, as with student loans today which cannot be bankrupted. This is what history has shown, and Spain is doing today, as you read this.  The bottom of the market is not low prices, it is no customers.  When people are miserable because of the investment choices when the prices fall will think it cannot get worse.  It will get worse.  Get customer-employed now.

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1 comments:

Anonymous said...

What type of business do you recommend that would best weather severe economic problems in the U.S.? An export business focused on foreign markets that hopefully wouldn't be affected as much? If one had an export business, wouldn't problems in the U.S still be a problem (loss in domestic manufacturing capability)? What about the specific export product? Agricultural products maybe, non-high tech, housewares? Having your own business may not be the "lifeboat" one thinks. Or maybe it's a business like a barber, manual labor, truck driver, that cannot really be outsourced, but always needed no matter how bad or good the economy is doing.