Sunday, March 8, 2015

Shark Tank Failure Rate

In a seminar Saturday a person whose client's product was selected for the Shark Tank TV show shared that the show was being revamped because 90% of the winners fail.  This would not surprise me, but if true, then the "winners" of the Shark Tank who get funding have a worse performance track record than the general population, whose success rate is 80% failure within the first five years, not the shark tank 90%  Again if true.

I googled the failure rate question and the articles are relentlessly about the "success" stories, none of which talk about success in the way of viability, only in "increased sales" or "as seen on TV" never in terms of profitability.

Apparently the revamping of Shark Tank is taking the form of end-caps in Bed Bath and Beyond, in which all contestants are offered a position on the end-cap (an end-cap is the shelves facing the cross aisle in a retail stores, prime real estate in that world of location, location, location.)  So win or lose, an end-cap slot is yours.  Not sure how that could be of any value to a start-up, actually sounds disastrous. How do you organize a business around that anomaly?

I think I've watched a total of about three minutes of Shark Tank, while channel surfing in a hotel once, enough time to figure out what was going on.

As with all of these "reality" shows (which are anything but...) humiliation is a huge part of the entertainment.  The deer in the headlights look is the money shot.  Aside from that, no one needs money to start a business, or expand, one needs customers.  You can get more customers without giving up part of your company, so what is the point of a show that offers money for expansion, especially when the "winner" has to give up some of the company?  I dunno...  not sure why anyone would want to participate.  OK...  the whole thing is TV entertainment, but the premise makes no sense.

Some rich people might be able to spot a winner, and back it?  But none of those people are your customers?  How could they possibly know anything?  You must talk to your customers to find out what your customers think.

And now that we are in the era of credit deflation, people will be fighting to extend no-interest loans to small businesses.  In credit deflation, the longer it takes for you to get your money back, the harder the currency.  Kiva is already brokering no interest loans, their strongest division, and in Seattle, as well as many other cities, there are banks extending no interest loans, like Community Sourced Capital.

But but but...  there is million dollars worth of exposure?  Really?  To what end?  Can anyone trace the exposure to sales and profits?  Read Ogilvy on Advertising, and you'll learn just how delusional this idea is.

What I did find in my research is 2/3rds of the winners never get funded.  They are told they "won" some deal, but the money is never passed on.  Why would it?  None of those "judges" has any idea what will succeed, it is a TV show for entertainment, not a rationale venue for project funding.  Why would anyone actually go through with funding any of these delusional prospects?
Of the more than 35,000 people who now try out each season, fewer than 150 make into the tank. ...
What happens next is far less inspirational. As many as two-thirds of those televised deals never come to fruition, estimates TJ Hale, who has interviewed more than 70 participants for his show, Shark Tank Podcast.
Perhaps the 90% failure figure includes the 2/3rds who are never funded anyway.  Who knows?  But it took about three minutes for the show to bore me, delusions all around billed as reality.

Do not start, or go any farther in business, if you have not read this book... it will cure delusions.
Ogilvy on Advertising



 Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


0 comments: