Thursday, May 28, 2015

Will Transports Lead Crash?

So says this report...
Conclusion: according to Dow Theory the bullmarket in US stocks has run its course and it won’t be long before it breaks down into a bearmarket, that is likely to be severe. A catalyst for this could be a collapse in the bond markets. There is no logical reason for investors to hold bonds – they yield nothing and carry an increasing risk of severe capital depreciation, because most governments are either insolvent or fast heading in that direction, which means that they can’t and won’t honor their debts. If we see a collective realization of this reality by bond holders, which could happen at any time, we could quickly witness an ugly stampede for the exits leading to a dramatic spike in interest rates and a global market crash. We have already seen a convulsion in the bond markets in recent weeks, which is viewed as “a shot across the bows” – a warning of much worse to come.
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Anonymous said...

Governments that are monetarily sovereign (issue their own currency) can honor and pay all of their federal debts (like the US, UK, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Russia, China), and cannot go bankrupt. Countries using the Euro do have a problem though. Inflation is also another issue, but that can be managed and contained (via interest rates). Monetarily sovereign governments cannot be insolvent. Unless for some bizarre and illogical reason they stop issuing currency, which would not make any sense. These governments can always pay their bills.

Traders have been getting killed for years trying to short Japanese government bonds (the "widow maker trade"), thinking that the Japanese government would run out of money and default, but it can't, since it is monetarily sovereign. These ignoramuses do not understand economics fully to their clients and their own detriment.

John Wiley Spiers said...

This is of course a straw man argument, and obscene to anyone who cares about peace and prosperity. That any government should have anything to do with banking or currency. of course govt's can issue currency, but the more they issue the more they abuse the citizens.


Anonymous said...

How is a government issuing currency abusive?

A society needs some kind of currency to facilitate trade? Without any currency, bartering at the grocery store wouldn't be practical or convenient.

How would a private currency compare to a government issued currency?

It's not clear to me what is an effective solution to these problems presented by government issuing currency.

John Wiley Spiers said...

Govt currency abuse:

Your second paragraph is a false dilemma.

Third paragraph, study the history of currency. Govt issued currency is the anomaly, not private currency.

Fourth paragraph incoherent. At any rate, be curious, study, and wonder how come to this day USA Federal Reserve Banking is 100% private, and how come in say Hong Kong private companies issue currencies (three at the same time, and how in addition to the Franc, the Swiss have the WIR, another currency they don't mention to outsiders.

The govt has no role to play in business, commerce or banking.


Anonymous said...

"The govt has no role to play in business, commerce or banking." - I agree. But can a similar currency system be setup in the US, such as like the Swiss WIR?

The Swiss WIR is interesting, but it is only for business-to-business transactions, not individuals I think.