Monday, June 15, 2015

China Trade Crashing

If you review the current USITC gross reports on trade with China, exports to China are crashing.  Of course we are told they we are in recovery, except if you are unemployed, then there is a depression going on.

There may be no jobs, but there is plenty of work.  We have a massive government structure guaranteed to do the wrong thing, but that does not mean you cannot do well while doing good, as long as you ignore them.  One critical thing is do not take their student loans, but for most that is too late.  Ten years ago my classes were full and student loan debt was 300 billion and bankruptable.  Today my classes are very low enrollment and student loan debt is one trillion, 300 billion and not bankruptable.  The student loan program has broken tens of millions, those who would have taken my classes the last ten years.  (How do I know?  The zips of my customer base and the zips of the student loan distribution.) They simply don't have the $100 to take a seminar, no matter how beneficial.

John's communication skills, ideas, experience, handouts were exceptional. This armed me with reality about (the) business...this class was better than the two years I spent getting my MBA.Paula Royalty, Bellevue, WA

What that means is more opportunity for those few who eschewed government "benefits" like "student loans."  (If it is not bankruptable, it sure ain't a loan, it's social engineering.)

For example, if you drill down on our #1 export category (oil seeds and oleaginous fruits; miscellaneous grains, seeds and fruits; industrial or medicinal plants; straw and fodder), from the two digit level, which is crashing this year, you'll note our # 1 export in that category, soybeans, is down some 40% for the first four months of this year, yoy.  And that is 97% of the export category.  But #2, just 1.9% of the category (1214.--rutabagas (swedes), mangolds, hay, alfalfa (lucerne), clover, forage kale, lupines and similar forage products, whether or not in the form of pellets) is up some 30%.

If animal feeds were your thing, you'd find (1214900040.--rutabagas (swedes), mangolds, fodder roots, clover, sainfoin, forage kale, lupines, vetches and similar forage products nesoi, whether or nt in pellet) is up over 900%.

You can do this all day long, specialty items are doing very well, but USA policy of "get big or get out" is over.  Who is getting hammered most are the welfare queens who benefitted most the last 40 years.  Along with get big or get out, "food as a weapon" is also stated USA policy.  That too has failed, and China defeated USA in the world war we fomented in food.

What will Cargill, ADM, Monsanto and Boeing all do now that the game is over?  Call for war, of course, and reauthorization of the ExIm Bank.  Nothing we can do about the ExImBank reauthorization, even bigger and more secret, but the war thing is still optional.

Let's look at another food export with a big drop:  15.--animal or vegetable fats and oils and their cleavage products; prepared edible fats; animal or vegetable waxes, 48th on the list, form 109 to 15 million YOY, YTD.  Yikes, soybeans again...  1507.--soybean oil and its fractions, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified, from 97 to 14 million in export sales.    Ouch!  Expect war.

At the same time, 1521.--vegetable waxes (other than triglycerides), beeswax, other insect waxes and spermaceti, whether or not refined or colored is up 2.5 times.  Specialty waxes are growing, drill down to beeswax and it is growing 3.5 times...  152190.--beeswax and other insect waxes and spermaceti, whether or not refined or colored.  Commodities hammered, specialty flying.

There is massive work to be done, sadly millions have gone broke irretrievably because of the student loan scam run by a predatory government and its agents in education.  Love that climbing wall at your school?  All the electronic gear stacked up in the corner?  If these people work, their money will just be taken from them to pay for all that.  Their $35,000 debt will not go down, but in deflation, you'll be able to live as well on less priced in nominal terms every day  (and self-employed ever better).  There is forgiveness for the loans if you join the military (war!) but we could also simply authorize bankruptcy of student loan debts.  Less people die that way.  I just hope you did not waste the time as well pursung a business, computer science or finance degree, when you could have gotten a useful comparative religion or French degree.

BUt in self-employment, the business is the lifestyle, and they can only come after a % of what you pay  yourself OUTSIDE of the business expenses of your lifestyle business.  Those are the rules, and as Saul Alinsky points out, you can beat them using their rules.  

The most revolutionary act you can perform is to start a business.  There is unlimited work that need to be done.  I have an exporting food seminar coming up, and you'll note a couple of payment options are "bill me" and check or money order, and PO.  In essence, with these I extend credit to the enrollee.  Times are tough.  The world can be a wicked place, and that is good to know.  Look into the abyss, but don't fall in.  Know what is what and still thrive.

Exporting Food as a Small Business

Course Objective: To find overseas business no more difficult than a domestic sale yet as profitable.

Week One - Orientation and Market Targeting

Week Two - The FOB MOQ US$ Prepaid Order Offer

Week Three - The Export Order Offer Website (passive marketing)

Week Four - Actively Marketing Your Products to Qualified Buyers

Bonus: Trade Show Booth Management

Schedule -

Summer Session 2015

Tuesdays 6/23 - 7/14/2015 Four Sessions

Live Online 6 PM to 7 PM Pacific Time

(This would be 7 PM to 8 PM Mountain, 8 PM to 9 PM Central, 9 PM to 10 PM Eastern)

Sign up now.

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