Friday, June 19, 2015

USA Food Exports to Mexico

Mexico is USA's #2 trading partner, behind Canada, and food exports is the about the 5th or 6th largest component of export sales from USA to Mexico.  Reports are food exports to Mexico are collapsing, as are the reports on China.  But just as with China it depends on "what food?"

Pick any country and study for yourself.

For example,12.--oil seeds and oleaginous fruits; miscellaneous grains, seeds and fruits; industrial or medicinal plants; straw and fodder is down some 40%, but 15.--animal or vegetable fats and oils and their cleavage products; prepared edible fats; animal or vegetable waxes is up 10%.  13.--lac; gums; resins and other vegetable saps and extracts is up 250%.

If you drill down on 12, you find the big culprit is soybeans again, that subsidized GMO crop.  Flours, meals, way down, all Big Ag items. Check out 1209994090.--seeds, fruits and spores, of a kind used for sowing, nesoi, up over 3.5 times, specialty foods.  Looking through those listings we also see USA is exporting both  cattle feed and the means to create cattle feed in Mexico. Is our draught an opportunity for Mexico to capture market share?

The whole "get big or get out" ag policy with its massive subsidies for big is a disaster that will play out over the coming years, and into the vacuum will come the specialty foods.

The trade data always raises questions.   Proceeding from facts can help ask the right questions, and in time to take advantage.  People leave my classes with information no one else has, and can be traded on, one way or another.

Next week another round starts.  

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