Saturday, December 3, 2016

India, Gold and a Monetary Event and Some Change

So India is working on what USA has not quite done yet,  but Europe did, and that is eliminate certain bills and when people tried to trade the old for the new, they were obliged to explain where they got all this cold hard cash.

In USA, cash is "probable cause" of a crime at any level any cop says so, and since they get to keep what they seize, "says so" getting less and less every day.  War on cash.

Here is a guy whose reasoning is sound, although I agree with Sennholz that the Hegemon has way too many options, plus the Hegemon does not lose if the system crashes.  When the Soviet system crashed, the same people ended up on top.  The Russians were just smart enough, this time, to let change happen without bloodshed.  With USA having shed so much blood worldwide in this last 40 years, what goes around comes around. (Name a time when the news covered Soviet soldiers in combat.  Just Afghanistan?  That was only ten years long, and the Communists had the decency to self-destruct peacefully after that.  We are at fifteen years now...)

This guy is pointing out that gold is up to $1700 in India, about 40% higher than spot.  A change of currency is a monetary event, and inflation what happens when you print too much currency.  India explicitly here is printing more currency, and inflation is showing up in terms of money (gold.)

It is fun to read a prediction that you'll be able to buy an average house for 2.6 ounces of gold soon, and let the mind work out how easy it would be to buy that much gold and hold it.  This guy sells gold.  If it gets to that, you'll have so many other options, no gold required, that as today a gold play is just one marginal opportunity among countless others.  At one point I had a couple of kilos of gold in my house, plus 1,000 ounces of silver, I accumulated over the 00's, with a view of the "main chance."  I repented of that, and sold it all (at the top it turns out; taxes on gains will impact much getting a house for 2.6 oz of gold, making the play probably risible at that point in the future.)

The stories are black market machinations are pushing the price of gold up in India.  Could be, but I'd stick with printing too much currency.

As to the price of gold in India, the solution to high prices is high prices.  The high prices themselves will widen the smuggling, from petty to grand, and that will solve the problem of state policy failure.

People are still panicking over Trump, and those panicking I still think are doing so becasue they know the ex nihilo credit regime si over.  As to that, Trump is merely the messenger, Hillary would have done what trump will do, just as Obama did What McCain would do.  Just as Obama was used to draw back the disaffected left, so Trump is drawing back the disaffected right.

What is true no president keeps promises, at all, and Trump will be no exception.  What is also true is the iron is hot, and everyone can pointlessly vote, but everyone can also effectively act.  The election is decided, buy how you contribute to forging the iron up to you.

As the ex nihilo credit regime declines inexorably, your action replacing it, at the small business level, is both doing good and doing well.  It is the only reasonable "prepping" that can occur, because entrepreneurship is about the unseen, as Drucker says, "creating customers and innovating."  If you create something, then necessarily it is unseen until you act. When you start up a business, your product is a solution to a problem (and there is no solution that can be improved upon) but you cannot know what that product (or service) will look like around the bend, because its development is by iteration and iteration, based on customer feedback preceding each iteration, something that cannot be plotted linearly.   Whole lotta zig zaggin' goin' on. You have the passion and joy, but you have no idea what your offering will look like in a year, let alone a decade.  Neither does the hegemon (or competitors for that matter) so as fruit to pick you are too high and too far apart to mulct.

(The point of Intellectual Property Rights, monopolies issued by the hegemon, are to set designs in stone, with a promise of riches, so that creativity and innovation is suppressed, especially by threat of litigation if anyone dare improve on a monopolized idea, so we have extremely limited options from which to choose in life.  Car companies could not start in USA after the Big Three pooled patents among themselves, and anyone who tried to start up was obliged to overpay the big three for each automobile function a car needed.  Windshield wipers? Pay us.  Radio?  Pay us.  ABS?  Pay us. )

Obama was elected to stop the wars, the bailouts, close gitmo and fix healthcare.  Of course all of those are far worse today.  In 2010 he announced he wanted to double exports in five years.  Whole lotta ex nihilo credit spent on that, never happened.  If McCain won, it'd be the same.  Obama was against the Standing Rock pipeline, but as you can see from the video, on his watch, whole lotta work got done.

Trump won, meaning the iron is hot.  What gets forged depends on how people act, what they do.

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